Thread by @TheValuesVoter

I have a HUGE problem with the Democratic Party's position on abortion. Anyone who has followed me for any length of time knows that.

That said and known, you also know that I study data. And I found something that surprised me that I'm going to dig into more deeply.

If you look at the CDC reports, the # of abortions reported to the CDC went down every year under Obama's tenure.
cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/6…

2018: 619,591
2017: 612,719
2016: 623,471
2015: 638,169
2014: 652,639
2013: 664,435
2012: 699,202
2011: 730,322
2010: 765,651
2009 - 789,217

Look it up yourself. Also, you can cross-check the beginning years of this period against a separate CDC report:
cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/m…

This surprised me. And so I started to look back even further.

After 1997, California stopped reporting its abortion numbers to the CDC. So I'm looking at the entire period of information from the CDC Abortion Surveillance series in two parts. From the first year I could find data from, 1970 to 1997. And 1999-2018 (last year available).

I had to look at multiple reports to make sure that the same numbers were lining up. But, with a lot of other work needed to dig into the data, it does look like there is a substantial difference in the YEAR OVER YEAR increase/decrease in abortions reported to the CDC.

With a lot of work left to do and also with pointing you to the reports so you can look over them yourselves, year over year abortion numbers (again, after 1997, excluding several states including our most populous state, California), are more likely to go down with a Dem POTUS.

At least after the 1970s that is.

The first ten years after Roe v Wade, where abortion was legal everywhere, the number of abortions went up like a rocket. It peaked in 1984.

But if you go by President and how many years during their term the number of CDC abortions rose or fell year over year during their term, here it is:

Nixon (looking at years 1971-1974) - CDC abortion numbers rose YOY all four years.

Ford (1975 and 1976) - CDC abortion numbers rose YOY both years.

Carter (1977-1980) - CDC abortion numbers rose YOY all four years.

Reagan (1981-1988) - CDC abortion numbers rose YOY for 5 of the 8 years and fell YOY for 3 of the 8 years.

Bush (1989-1992) - CDC abortion numbers rose YOY for 2 of the years and fell YOY for 2 of the years.

Clinton (1993-1997, 1998-2000) - I separate this because California stopped reporting after 1997 and part of the dip between 1997 and 1998 is artificial, caused by this change.

Clinton (1993-1997, 1998-2000) - CDC abortion numbers rose YOY for 1 of these years and fell YOY for 6 of these years.

George W. Bush (2001-2008) - CDC abortion numbers rose YOY for 2 of these years and fell YOY for 6 of these years.

Obama (2009-2016) - CDC abortion numbers fell YOY for all 8 of these years)

Trump (2017-2018) - No official CDC data available after 2018 yet. CDC abortion numbers rose YOY for 1 of these years and fell YOY for 1 of these years. Will be interesting to see more data on this.

You can look through the reports yourself at:
cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/6…
cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/m…
cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/m…

(Which I highly recommend you do. These reports are extremely informative).

The CDC does not have information all the abortions performed in the United States. But because it tracks the abortions performed in most of the states over a long period of time, it is a useful tool in understanding trends.

I continue to have my criticisms about the Democratic Party's positions on abortion, which I could not disagree with more emphatically. But I'm also a data guy. I look at numbers. And the numbers suggest abortions have historically fallen some during Democratic administrations.

Why? I have no idea whatsoever. Am I surprised about the continual downward trend in the number of CDC-reported abortions during the Obama years? Yes. I did not notice this previously. But the data says what it says.