#tips industries My key takeaways from latest (Q3FY21) concall and investor presentation. If you like the thread, please retweet so that others can also benefit.
1. Management confident of growing topline at 25-30%. Claims industry is growing at 30-40%.
In b/w lines: Personally, I felt some of the numbers were pulled out of thin air. Management seems a bit less professional than #saregama. Having said that, as tips inks more deals with music licencing platforms (eg:telecom.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/tips-indu…) it can meet its revenue growth guidance
2. If they buy a song for X, they make that money back in 1 year. Maximum of 2 years.
In b/w lines: This is extremely high ROICs. It must be understood why the content they acquire is selling so cheap that they are able to make an ROIC of 50%-100%.
I still do not understand. For comparison, #saregama guides for 20% ROIC. If someone understands this, please reach out to me or reply to this tweet. Looking to learn.
3. Music licensing revenue fell from 9MFY20 to 9MFY21. Why?
In b/w lines: Q was not asked in concall. My guesstimate: 2 possible reasons: (i) Right now, they get only 60% revenues from OTT/digital and 40% from offline/TV/parties. The second stream dried up due to covid. Image
Problem is only temporary though, as digital grows faster than analog, revenue streams would become more stable and less lumpy.
(ii) Their music licensing deals are of 1-2 year durations typically. Due to smaller catalog, their negotiation power with music streaming platforms is more limited. Deal with Gaana fell through. Could have impacted revenues. As they grow scale (catalog), lumpiness should reduce.
@NeilBahal @OldSchoolFinanc @NAVofNav @mehrotra_saket FYI since you seem to be interested in Tips. :)

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More from @sahil_vi

21 May
#angelbroking so many UC. 🤣
This thread is to understand the biz & what excites me about it. A bit about the #broking industry too. This is going to be a long thread, so please don't hold your breath. As always retweet if you like, so max people can benefit. 🙏
#Brokers provide the UI/UX to the end participant to execute their trades. Traditionally, brokers have made money through couple of major sources:
1. Brokerage: In the olden days, brokers used to have “packs” (say X trades in Y days for Z rupees) and also provide custom plans to their clients with a focus on driving volume. This got disrupted with the advent of discount brokers like Zerodha.
Read 48 tweets
20 May
A rising tide lifts all boats. I would caution all investors to read the VP thread for #shaktipumps. In 2014, Management had guided for 400 cr revenue in 2015. Actual revenues were 292, 296, 264 cr in 2014, 2015, 2016.
Not to take anything away from the business setup and Industry tailwinds but company's guidance and statements have been slightly less than truthful in the past.
forum.valuepickr.com/t/shakti-pumps… ImageImage
Warren Buffett only have 2 rules for investing:
1. Don't lose money.
2. Don't forget rule 1.

I intend to follow 😁
Read 4 tweets
19 May
@NAVofNav this is a very important question and deserves some clarification.
Music producers like #SAREGAMA and #tips acquire 2 types of IP rights/sources of revenue when they acquire the music:
1. Master Recording rights: (the song) which is for 60 years from the time song was released.
2. Publishing rights: These are for 60 years from the time of death of the writer/composer of the song.
The first ones go away, 60 years after the song was released. But the second ones enable #saregama to use the lyrics and re-record the song (60 more years for this song).
The 1st rights going away is definitely a blow, but the blow is softened by the 2nd set of rights.
Read 7 tweets
14 May
#saregama amazing concall. Learnt a lot. My key takeaways:
1. Music licensing industry growing at 11-12%. Saregama growing at 21%. Guidance to grow at 22-25%.
In b/w lines: growth guidance revised up, purchase of 20-25% of all new music in india. Buisness is total cash cow.
2. Carvaan is not just a profitable product they sell at 25% GPM, they want to make it into a platform for audio streaming: podcasts, new songs, and thus generate recurring revenue through ads and subscription.
In b/w lines: reminds me of Google home. The focus should not be in the product But rather strategy of using the product to capture mindspace of the user. Also, enables B2C interactions with customers enabling data analytics. Only music content company in india which also has B2C
Read 6 tweets
13 May
#vaibhavglobal great concall and guidance from management. My key take aways :
1. 16-18% topline growth + operating leverage in short term. 15-17% in 2-4 year medium term.
In between lines: management is super conservative, underpromise and over deliver.
2. After US and UK, expanding to Germany. Opportunity size larger than UK. 2B$ revenue for top 2 players. 2M$ capex & 3-5M$ opex loss in 1st yr. Break even in yr 3.
In between lines: revenue growth to accelerate in medium term. Germany will become larger than UK.
3. Management has set ambitious target to 18x the order volume !!!!! In next 10 years.
Im between lines: high topline growth in next 10 years. Even if order value goes down 2x from now, this implies 25% cagr in topline for next 10 years. Amazing 🎯 #vaibhavglobal has taken.
Read 4 tweets

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