Thread by @faisalislam

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On the Australia trade deal rumpus...

Worth noting that its importance to Govt is especially elevated because the US deal really doesn’t seem to be a priority for Biden admin. See last wk response from USTR to Senator Portman: “v critical areas open, still quite a road”

Also the question specifically asked if USTR would ask to extend trade authority to finish UK deal - Tai did not say that, said objectives still being reviewed and “we are keeping our eye on” Northern Ireland after concerns from Congress, in relation to trade deal...

..no mention in bilateral readouts of conversations of trade ministers and PM-President, Queens Speech mentioned three areas to deepen trade ties, but not US..

prevention of last year’s moves to a quick trade deal under Trump could have put matters back years, beyond midterms...

.. that delay was particularly down to targeted under radar lobbying efforts of farmers, using local newspapers in seats of key MPs, re what they argued was threat of cheap US food imports adhering to US standards... (other factors too, Lighthizer sceptical re clean EU break)

So Australia. PErception out there is Oz negotiators can walk away, but think UK can not. Indeed internally it is a lesson from John Howards deals with US & Thai, that shouldn’t be beholden to political promises to do trade deals.

So they’ve asked and expect full UK agri access

Farmers dont like this, point out they can’t compete with industrialised Antipodean ranches, and so for lamb and beef farmers, this will change not just trade but rural way of life.

Govt says Oz deal is gateway to transpacific tariff free exports...

Structural issue here is that trade negotiations create winners and losers even when the whole economic pie is increased. The losers and losses are often more immediate and tangible, the winners are in the future, and less driven to protest, or dumping produce near Govt depts...

If this goes same way as US deal, farmers will win a delay or perhaps significant concession reviewing impact of lowering tariff barriers, and being able to stop process... but will the Australians buy that?

Whatever is offered to Oz farmers will also set precedent elsewhere.

Blog here - decisions in Cabinet committee tomorrow...

https://twitter.com/bbcpolitics/status/1395036744223965185?s=21

To a degree, but Australia could just send the same non treated beef it currently sends to the EU, to the UK. The same issue with having to change standards as would definitely arise with US doesn’t necessarily arise with Australia:

https://twitter.com/cesky2000/status/1395038577961152517?s=21