There are so many biases in the way we discuss transport policy
I'll list a few of them in this 🧵
Most of these relate to rail (my own bias!) so far...
Do add more in @ - replies!
I'll list a few of them in this 🧵
Most of these relate to rail (my own bias!) so far...
Do add more in @ - replies!
The shiny-new-tech bias
What Tim Dunn alludes to here. It looks shiny and cool, so people fall for it. In this case a regular tram would do better than this...
What Tim Dunn alludes to here. It looks shiny and cool, so people fall for it. In this case a regular tram would do better than this...
https://twitter.com/MrTimDunn/status/1394989477760839681
The I-used-it-and-it-was-fine bias
Pretty much everyone who's not French likes SNCF, as they've been on a TGV whizzing Paris to Marseille. Try getting a regional train between small towns and you will have a different view!
Pretty much everyone who's not French likes SNCF, as they've been on a TGV whizzing Paris to Marseille. Try getting a regional train between small towns and you will have a different view!
The [public transport mode of your choice]-is-too-costly bias
Sure, a train ticket has a nasty one off up-front price. But car drivers tend to forget the sunk costs of maintenance, insurance etc., and only recall how little they paid at the ⛽️
Sure, a train ticket has a nasty one off up-front price. But car drivers tend to forget the sunk costs of maintenance, insurance etc., and only recall how little they paid at the ⛽️
The simple-use-case-in-mind bias
Hey, sure, I'd like to cross a city in a cable car! No congestion, no tunnels to bore like a metro...
Hang on. What about people with reduced mobility? Bicycles? Interchange with other modes? Noise? What if it's windy. Maybe less good...
Hey, sure, I'd like to cross a city in a cable car! No congestion, no tunnels to bore like a metro...
Hang on. What about people with reduced mobility? Bicycles? Interchange with other modes? Noise? What if it's windy. Maybe less good...
The back-in-the-day bias
Especially common in railway policy, everyone dreams back to halcyon days... when trains actually looked like this
Especially common in railway policy, everyone dreams back to halcyon days... when trains actually looked like this
The it's-all-too-complex bias
Again especially common in railway policy, and especially in the EU, there is *always* a technical reason why something won't work, rather than solutions to make it work
Again especially common in railway policy, and especially in the EU, there is *always* a technical reason why something won't work, rather than solutions to make it work
The infrastructure-instead-of-operations bias
This is one politicians most often fall for - build a hugely expensive new high speed line or motorway, and then actually struggle to get anything running on it
This is one politicians most often fall for - build a hugely expensive new high speed line or motorway, and then actually struggle to get anything running on it
The public-better-than-private (or private-better-than-public) bias
Loads of people discussing public transport policy fall into one of these camps. It can be that a combination works fine as well. And there are different variants of each
Loads of people discussing public transport policy fall into one of these camps. It can be that a combination works fine as well. And there are different variants of each
The they-do-it-better bias
Sure, learning from others has its advantage, but there are some examples that are not transferable - for reasons of politics, cost or geography. We can't (and wouldn't all want) to be the Swiss
/ends
Sure, learning from others has its advantage, but there are some examples that are not transferable - for reasons of politics, cost or geography. We can't (and wouldn't all want) to be the Swiss
/ends
Then there's the cheap-is-better-than-good bias
As seen in this tweet. Sure, I've thought the €1 TER thing was cool, but I've never bought a ticket at that rate because it's never gone where I need to go, when I need it. Cheaper always ≠ better
As seen in this tweet. Sure, I've thought the €1 TER thing was cool, but I've never bought a ticket at that rate because it's never gone where I need to go, when I need it. Cheaper always ≠ better
https://twitter.com/mmistigri/status/1395042136337358849
The generalising-the-exception bias is an important one too
Sure, not everyone can cycle. But if a lot more people did, it'd make lives of pedestrians, bus users etc. better *too*
Sure, not everyone can cycle. But if a lot more people did, it'd make lives of pedestrians, bus users etc. better *too*
https://twitter.com/patrislav/status/1395048878051823620
I think I ought to add the people-like-me bias as well
I remember reading that 90% of regular passengers on German ICE trains *also* have a car. I don't. So my way of thinking about that service is atypical
I remember reading that 90% of regular passengers on German ICE trains *also* have a car. I don't. So my way of thinking about that service is atypical
Keep them coming folks!
The I-oppose-this-rail-infrastructure-because-I-support-something-else bias
This can often be a kind of nimbyism, or a lack of ambition - that scaling *everything* up might actually be the option
The I-oppose-this-rail-infrastructure-because-I-support-something-else bias
This can often be a kind of nimbyism, or a lack of ambition - that scaling *everything* up might actually be the option
https://twitter.com/AffreuxD/status/1395054782788812809
The this-technology-only-failed-because-we-didn’t-try-hard-enough bias
Applies to monorails, maglevs, hovercraft. There's a bit of the simple-use-case-in-mind bias in this too - think more widely and it's clear why maglev struggled
Applies to monorails, maglevs, hovercraft. There's a bit of the simple-use-case-in-mind bias in this too - think more widely and it's clear why maglev struggled
https://twitter.com/Koelschlenny/status/1395274982838706177
The because-it-isn't-perfect-it's-bad-bias (or the it-doesn't-benefit-me-bias)
You can't improve everything for everyone all of the time, so even if it's not perfect or doesn't benefit you, that doesn't mean it's bad
You can't improve everything for everyone all of the time, so even if it's not perfect or doesn't benefit you, that doesn't mean it's bad
https://twitter.com/simonschre/status/1395091039766122497
The [transport mode]-must-pay-its-own-way bias
Applies for example to car drivers complaining bikes don't pay road tax, while forgetting the negative impacts of driving
Applies for example to car drivers complaining bikes don't pay road tax, while forgetting the negative impacts of driving
https://twitter.com/EmilTschepp/status/1395080826438799371
https://twitter.com/FrazerGoodwin/status/1395281754861228034
The as-the-crow-flies bias
Heard a lot in rail debate. Let's build a Berlin-Paris straight line! 4 hours trip... Errr, have you looked at the geography? That there are no other cities along that line?
Heard a lot in rail debate. Let's build a Berlin-Paris straight line! 4 hours trip... Errr, have you looked at the geography? That there are no other cities along that line?
https://twitter.com/Koelschlenny/status/1395067439549984772
The tech-optimising-existing-infrastructure bias
A belief that some as-yet-to-be-invented technology can solve real problems that actually need investment in hard infrastructure
A belief that some as-yet-to-be-invented technology can solve real problems that actually need investment in hard infrastructure
https://twitter.com/keithbarrow80/status/1395062861202968578
The small-country-bias
A variant of the they-do-it-better bias, but what works in a country as small as Netherlands or Switzerland might well not be a model for France or Spain
A variant of the they-do-it-better bias, but what works in a country as small as Netherlands or Switzerland might well not be a model for France or Spain
https://twitter.com/Koelschlenny/status/1395065407824875523
The keep-the-slow-but-exceptional bias
Train ferries! Cool! Nice views of the Elbe between Dresden and Prague! Super! Sorry, but you're probably not typical. Most people want to get to their destination fast.
Train ferries! Cool! Nice views of the Elbe between Dresden and Prague! Super! Sorry, but you're probably not typical. Most people want to get to their destination fast.
https://twitter.com/Koelschlenny/status/1395289324111925252
The it's-better-underground-than-overground bias
As applied to cities. Sure, building metro networks underground does sometimes make sense, but doing so when the aim is... to just let more people keep driving above ground? I'm less sure
As applied to cities. Sure, building metro networks underground does sometimes make sense, but doing so when the aim is... to just let more people keep driving above ground? I'm less sure
https://twitter.com/philvonoppen/status/1395289501442977796
The assume-unchanging-use-patterns bias
If a lot more people cycle to work, cycling-friendly clothing will also be more normal. Same could apply to how much parking space is planned for buildings
If a lot more people cycle to work, cycling-friendly clothing will also be more normal. Same could apply to how much parking space is planned for buildings
https://twitter.com/two_oars/status/1395315983024263171
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