Thread by @BigManBakar

The Preview: GW 38 - A thread

Hi everyone, welcome to The Preview. Chasing a mini league lead or looking to gain ground on your rival? I present to you the final thread of the season:

#FPL #FPLCommunity @OfficialFPL

(Data taken from @FFScout and @FFH_HQ with consent)

Final round of Fantasy5 is now live! It’s completely free to enter, a lot of fun to play and potentially very rewarding with winnings up to £10k. Last matches of the season are generally high scoring so good chance of the jackpot being won! Sign up:

fantasy5.com

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If you're looking to play fantasy Euros, then you have to try this game! Sign up & register a team for free on the link below with €10k in added prizes. I will be playing & writing my threads as usual too!

Sign up here: dreamsport.com

Follow here: @DreamSportHQ

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Q: What is the best way to overtake a deficit in my mini league?

It’s time to go upside chasing. That doesn’t necessarily mean adopting any drastic strategy and avoiding the best players for the GW, but at the very least one can take calculated risks. You have to step away...

... from the template to a certain degree. For example, Son and Kane are both heavily owned in the top 10k as both of them have been prolific this season. Yet this GW, both don’t even feature in the top 15 most likely anytime goal-scorers according to the odds. Further, Spurs...

... away from home under Ryan Mason, have one of the worst xG per game and shots in the box per game ratios in the league (granted the sample size is very small) and Leicester will have motivation. Ideally, I would never advise you to sell Kane as he has an incredible...

... record against Leicester (14 goals in 10 appearances, his best record against any PL club) but if you have to chase a big lead, then certain gambles need to be taken.

Q: I trail my mini league rival by 10 points or less – do I play safe or take risks?

I’m aware that it is the point in the season where it is make or break in most mini leagues so this calls for educated gambles to be made. I don’t think you need to be different just for the...

... sake of being different because I consider a margin of 10 or fewer points to be minimal and one that can easily be made up. With this kind of margin, you should pick the obvious captain who I believe is Salah. No one has had more big chance involvements over the past...

... six matches and Palace have conceded the highest number of chances down the right flank among all teams in the league this calendar year. This bodes well for Salah and by extension, Trent.

Q: I trail my mini league rival by 10 points or more – to what extent should I take risks and which ones?

Double up on defences which your rivals don’t own if you can do so without ignoring priority transfers. For example, Liverpool and Chelsea are two of the likeliest...

... teams according to the odds for a clean sheet this week. Go for explosive defenders. Goalscoring midfielders will help you make up ground in quick time. Invest in differentials...

...If the deficit is too huge, then ideally captain a player that your rival doesn’t own. Take the chance that he might haul big. Roll the dice!

Q: Which brings me to the question, who is the best differential captain?

As long as you own Salah, I think you have that risk of losing out mitigated to a certain extent so you’re giving yourself some margin to do well even if Salah hauls and you don’t have him as captain...

... Mané, for example, is a great shout this week. He is second among all players in the league for big chance involvements and has scored in each of his previous seven appearances for Palace. Liverpool are, by far, the bookies favorites for 2.5+ goals this week and have the...

... motivation to make top four so I like the idea of captaining a Liverpool player. If your rival already has a Liverpool triple up, then I’d go Bamford for the reasons mentioned below.

Q: Who to pick out of Bamford, Raphinha and Antonio if I can only pick one?

I don’t want to run you through long statistical comparisons that I usually do because I believe using gameweek specific odds is a better metric while talking about one gameweek alone rather than...

... season long statistics. Leeds are second favorites for 2.5+ goals this week, while West Ham are fifth. Bamford is second favorite after Salah for anytime goalscorer while Antonio is around tenth. West Brom generally tend to concede most of their chances...

... down the middle too (37% of their chances conceded this calendar year have been through the middle) while Southampton tend to concede more down their flanks (28% of their chances conceded this calendar year have been through the middle) which again favors Bamford. I still...

... think Bamford and Antonio are my two favorite strikers for this GW though and ones who I believe have big upside. Both will be playing in front of home fans and are likely to be on penalties – which is very important because West Brom and Southampton are the two teams to...

... have conceded the highest number of penalties this calendar year. I like Bamford more than Raphinha simply because I believe he is more explosive – he has five double digit hauls this season compared to Raphinha’s one.

Q: Raphinha or Harrison?

I posted this in last GW’s thread:

Raphinha v Harrison
(last six matches)
Mins per shot in box: 67 v 58
Mins per big chance: 472 v 173
Mins per chance created: 36 v 37
Mins per big chance created: 236 v 173

Raphinha's numbers have been far superior over the season but of late Harrison has caught up with him which makes Raphinha v Harrison a tricky decision. It is also worth noting that Raphinha is now sharing some set pieces with Dallas, which were a major reason as to why...

... his creativity numbers over the season have been so good. Harrison I believe could be a decent alternative to Raphinha if you’re willing to get a piece of the Leeds’ pie ahead WBA particularly if your rival doesn’t own Raphinha and you want to be different. Assuming all...

... things equal though, I prefer Raphinha because with Rodrigo back against Southampton, Raphinha was the most advanced Leeds player while Harrison was sticking more to the byline in a deeper position.

Q: What to do with Man United and Man City assets?

I think the need of the hour is to be vigilant here and to view all team leaks before the deadline with a degree of skepticism. Make sure you are only trusting information which is credible – verified accounts on Twitter...

... known to be reliable in the past are a great start. I scoured through the City and the United forums and both sets of fans expect massive rotation for almost all their main players so it is important to have contingency plans in place in case we get team leaks before...

... the deadline. You don’t want to put yourself in a situation where you end up panicking pre-deadline.

Q: Who are the explosive defenders and goalscoring attackers to get?

All historical trends over the past five seasons point to the fact that last matches of the season tend to be high-scoring when compared to the season averages. Hence, for me it’s about picking defenders...

... who possess not only clean sheet but attacking potential. I’ve only spoken about Trent but I’d just like to add that over the past six matches, he has created the most chances in the league. Liverpool have by far the best clean sheet odds this week so Robertson is another...

... one I like – he’s upped his creative game of late and is only behind Trent for chances created and big chances created among defenders in the past two matches. Cresswell since his return from injury is second for chances created behind Trent among all players in the...

... league, so he is another differential I really like. Same applies for Chilwell, so is likely to start as the left wing back for a Chelsea side fighting for a Champions League spot. Dallas is template and there’s not much I need to say about him! I wrote about Willock...

... last week too so I’d like to keep this short. Ever since he has started playing in the first team from GW35, he’s second for big chances among all players in the league. Among forwards, I really like Iheanacho and Wood this week – both are among the top three forwards for...

... big chance involvements over the past six matches. It’s only fitting that I ended this season’s last thread with Wood indeed! 😉

Here is my Fantasy5 team! Agüero and Aubameyang are among the favorites for anytime goal scorer this week so I’m hoping they go big. It’s hard to see Werner scoring two in a game but Chelsea have motivation and I think he has the best chance of beating his target in that fixture.

Also, in case you didn't know, I do a weekly podcast (#TheFPLWire) with @lateriser12 and @zophar666 where we cover everything FPL relevant for the GW.

Here's this week’s episode: 👇

Kindly like and retweet the thread if you can. A big thank you for following my work this season! If you don’t already, then follow me on Instagram as I post about FPL there too through the link down below:

instagram.com/bigmanbakar

THANKS A LOT!

Apologies, I meant to write left flank*