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Karam Bales Profile picture
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22 May, 17 tweets, 6 min read
1/🧵Had a call from @carolecadwalla about this story this morning, pleased to see the guardian hunting for the truth, horrified that yet again Johnson appears to be again suppressing information

If schools are acting as reservoirs amplifying transmission we deserve to know!
So my thoughts why this data is needed and how the government actually needs a more comprehensive plan for B1.617.2, particularly if its circulating in schools.

Scientists and Unions have had a constant battle with gov on schools data.
Deeply skeptical of why it appears government is blocking this data.
I notice after Hancock and Johnson describing schools as "vectors of transmission" the messaging seems to be back to children rarely infect and low risk of transmission.
PHE also released data on vaccines against B1.617.2. There is reduced effectiveness, 2 jabs still have good stats but don't have data broken down into useful groups.

1 AZ jab is around 35%, media shouldn't be describing this as immunised as they often do.
Pfizer also releasing data on vaccines vs variants. Those second doses are all important, we really need to know how well they work specifically in those vulnerable groups.

Release the patents, that is one of the quickest ways of getting this behind us.
Just heard 2 commentators on @StephenNolan claim B1.617.2 isn't more transmissible and vaccines are fully effective against it.

We do need more data, but the signs are clearly there that B1.617.2 is more problematic than B117
Coincidence the government blocked this as they changed masks guidence?

US data shows masks cut transmission by 40%
Government covering up data, media warping the narrative, astroturf lobbyists seeking to paper over risk.

We need the truth, we need to recognise the risks if we are to manage them.

Pregnant women definitely need more consideration.
Government roadmap just hasn't taken into account variants, its like they have planned to race wild covid with vaccination. Various SAGE recommendations around variants have been ignored or watered down.

We need to be faster at adapting
At this point we need sensible measures like keep masks, invest in ventilation, improve contact tracing, better support for isolation etc

We also need contingency planning incase of explosive growth or what we learn about B1.617.2 or another yet to emerge variant
For those that don't remember it, the Containment Framework was designed to give the impression the DfE had a plan and would intervene, it wasn't used, not even in December as B117 esculated resulting in tens of thousands of deaths.

Was just a PR exercise
Reevaluating isolation and close contact policy
Right now its about preventing the need for more extreme action, or avoiding having people tell us we need to tolerate a higher death toll.

However B1.617.2 or a future variant means ppl need to be prepared for rapid action if necessary to prevent longer term pain.
Things might still work out alright, Johnson is taking a massive gamble and it might pay off, if it does he will expect to take the credit, if it goes wrong then we should expect him to take the blame.
Does feel like we are coming up to a decisive point, reminds me a little of October but with more uncertainty, then it was clear we were going to be in trouble, however lack of transparency is all too familiar.

Great look at PHE vaccine data and recent SAGE modelling

The manipulation of data release is putting politics before public health. Problem is that presenters/journalists/news editions will have seen what happened last night but I'm not hearing any mention of it.

They're choosing to ignore it

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More from @karamballes

Karam Bales Profile picture
23 May
1/🧵Government, PHE and the Media
Where is the science on schools policy? (AGAIN!)

Politics is about controlling the narrative,and this weekend shows many examples of how government does this facilitated by pliant media sources

It begins with suppressing and manipulating data.
2/ We know PHE have data on B1.617.2 cases in education settings, been asking for this for weeks, before masks were removed from classrooms. It was suspicious they wouldn't provide the data before that decision.

Still waiting, release has been blocked
3/ That was the data that wasn't released, the whole weekend was a media circus with the way the days data was released.

B1.617.2 spread and infectiousness
Vaccine efficiency

Pre briefings early in the day arent as rosy as the data released at 10:30m
Read 11 tweets
Karam Bales Profile picture
23 May
1/🧵Watching this years annual teaching apprenticeship debate, its got me thinking about a major issue with our education system that gets spoken about a lot but is never properly addressed.

Apprenticeships

Going to be some half formed thoughts and impressions, be gentle
2/ Main argument against seems to be about standards and subject knowledge.

My first instrinct is this is an argument about content and structure of a course rather than the basic concept.
3/ "Cant develop the depth of subject knowledge required over a 3/4 year apprenticeship"

I'm wondering how many teachers teach a subject they don't have a degree in? As a whole ppl are fine for someone with QTS to teach other subjects if they take a knowledge enhancement course
Read 16 tweets
Karam Bales Profile picture
20 May
#r4today Just had a one sided interview with someone from Joint Biosecurity on children being vaccinated "We don't want to immunise anyone who doesn't need it, think coverage will be high enough without vaccinating children"
UK gov currently has no plans for child vaccination
After listening to that interview, that wasn't balanced with an alternative view, its clear the government have no concerns with a large number of children being infected.

Still saying transmission isn't an issue in schools
What i can't believe is that once again UK take a policy stance that is at odds with most the works and there was no rigorous questioning from interviewer (@bbcnickrobinson I think)

Not even a mention that Israel and others have come to a completely different conclusion
Read 15 tweets
Karam Bales Profile picture
19 May
FOIs and DfE

Failed to provide evidence for taking Greenwich to court
Refuses to release data on testing trials in schools
Won't release the impact of its stealth cut to budgets

Gove's FOI blocking unit is certainly doing its job

Where's the accountability?
Here's the failure to answer FOIs on testing trials. Completely unacceptable, we need to see what is information the government is basing its decisions on.
These are the experiments still going ahead, without liability, without consent, without data from previous trials.

Also wheres the data for the nightclub trials
Read 8 tweets
Karam Bales Profile picture
19 May
Spent a year platforming skeptics and disinformation, now he's complaining about the consequences of his own actions?

"People are idiots for listening to my nonsense"
Looking at the comments on Tobys site its almost like if you keep underplaying covid and hinting that there are alternative reasons for lockdown other than public health, you might encourage ppl to question vaccination.
Telling people there's minimal risks from covid, constantly claiming that we're just about at herd immunity is going to make people question why they need a vaccination
Read 17 tweets
Karam Bales Profile picture
16 May
1/ Anyone notice a narrative forming today that there should be no delays to the roadmap because only people who haven't been bothered to get vaccinated are at risk?

"Anyone with common sense is already protected" several @lbc callers have said
2/ This has come with several statements

"Vaccines work just as well with B1.617.2"
"Higher transmissibility isn't an issue as there is no sign it has more severity or that younger age groups are impacted"
3/ I thought its been clear that we simply don't have enough data to know this yet. Seen reports on both sides

No suprise 2 voices are no are Dingwall and GBD Gupta.
Maajid Nawas also claimed as over 70% have antibodies we already have herd immunity
Read 20 tweets

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