Muzzling risks in schools—Downing Street (Boris Johnson) censored @PHE_uk and prevented crucial data on spread of new #COVID19 variant in schools—notably blocking data on Indian variant school spread. Scientists & teachers said it was “deeply worrying”. 🧵
theguardian.com/world/2021/may…
2) “The focus of their anger concerns the pre-print of a PHE report that included a page of data on the spread of the India Covid-19 variant in schools. But when the report was published on Thursday 13 May, the page had been removed.”
3) “It was the only one that had been removed from the pre-print. Days later, the government went ahead with its decision to remove the mandate on face coverings in English schools.”
4) “Evidence suggests No 10 was directly involved in the decision not to publish it. The prime minister’s office acknowledged it was in correspondence with PHE officials about presentation of the data but vigorously denied this constituted “interference” or “pressure”.
5) “Data on spread of the new variant in schools has still not been published, despite calls from union officials & scientists who say teachers & families are being put at risk. In hotspots such as Bolton, cases involving the variant are rising fastest among school-age children.”
6) Information reveals that 164 cases of the new variant were linked to schools up to 12 May, or 13% of a total of 2,111 cases. Since then, the number of total cases of the new variant has risen to 3,424 cases, a rise of 160%. The number of cases now linked to schools is unknown.
7) PHE will only say the data will be published “in due course”. It declined to comment on whether Downing Street has played a role in the decision.
8) Sage advisory group meeting last week warn new variants are “capable of generating a wave of infections bigger than previous waves”, and that the danger of “overreacting seems small compared to the potential benefit of delaying a third wave until more people are vaccinated”.
9) Christina Pagel @chrischirp, professor at University College London, said the situation was very troubling. “It feels like bad news that we’re not being told.”
10) Here is what is happening now in kids in Bolton UK 🇬🇧… school age kids are clearly at the forefront of the nee outbreak. And yes it’s mostly a #B16172 outbreak. This was what Downing Street didn’t want to admit to the world. Thx @IndependentSage.
11) Oh, you haven’t heard about the new school outbreaks in UK? Well there is a reason — UK Boris Johnson administration is actively muzzling their CDC-equivalent (PHE) and preventing their publication.
12) Here is the outbreak being muzzled… the PHE report still got it’s school #COVID19 section censored and gagged… but it doesn’t take a genius to guess what they are hiding based on the data below. See detailed thread 🧵 on #B16172 in UK.

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More from @DrEricDing

24 May
Residents in the epicenter of UK’s #B16172 variant outbreak, in Bolton 🇬🇧, told not leave the city unless it is essential, under new guidelines  published. Hospitalization soaring along with cases. 90% of all #COVID19 in Bolton is the worrisome #B16172. 🧵
theboltonnews.co.uk/news/19325835.…
2) look how much cases in Bolton has increased… 113% in one week. But many other places too. Bolton just the largest so far. Image
3) this is part of the bigger nationwide surge in the UK driven mostly by #B16172. See detailed thread 🧵 for more details of the outbreaks… ⬇️
Read 4 tweets
24 May
Hospitals in Osaka, Japan buckling under a huge wave of #COVID19, running out of beds, ventilators, and even intubation medicine—as exhausted doctors warn of a "system collapse", and advise against holding the Olympics. Even only ~half of HCW vaccinated. 🧵reuters.com/world/asia-pac… Image
2) The speed at which Osaka's healthcare system was overwhelmed underscores the challenges of hosting a major global sports event in two months' time, particularly as only about half of Japan's medical staff have completed inoculations.
3) "Simply put, this is a collapse of the medical system," said Yuji Tohda, the director of Kindai University Hospital in Osaka.
Read 11 tweets
23 May
⚠️PAY ATTENTION to rising #B16172 crisis in UK—crucial because India variant affects us all. It is now ~50% of all cases in England, surging fast, especially in kids. Hospital #COVID19 ward in Bolton🇬🇧 filling up. “It’s too late to contain” @chrischirp 🧵
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
2) And key worry is that the surge in #B16172 is domestic community transmission. Not related to international travel.
3) And look at the growth rate! #B16172 variant is by leaps and bounds growing faster than any other variant. The previously fast #B117 is growing much much slower—5x slower than B16172.

There can be 2 reasons—higher transmissibility, or more reinfection / vaccine breakthroughs.
Read 23 tweets
23 May
It’s sickening to watch UK’s CDC equivalent (Public Health England) now being an outlet of Boris Johnson administration’s propaganda. Yesterday, Johnson’s office censored PHE from publishing #B16172 outbreak data in schools—and then hails 33-60% 1&2 dose efficacy as a win for AZ.
2) to be clear, while 60% 2-dose efficacy is good, it’s not great. And asymptomatic infection likely lower. And 33% 1 dose is tricky too given how many countries rely on one dose strategy.
3) Many scientists are shocked by the recent actions of PHE to muzzle and coverup school outbreak data on #b16172.
Read 4 tweets
23 May
NEW—UK reports that 2 doses of AstraZeneca vaccine efficacy for #B16172 India variant: just 60%. And latest study says #B117 efficacy just 66% (lower than before). 1-dose efficacy 33% for #B16172.

Clearly #B16172 problematic in 🇬🇧 when 2/3 of shots is AZ
gov.uk/government/new…
2) that said, the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine was 88% effective against symptomatic disease from the B.1.617.2 variant 2 weeks after the second dose, compared to 93% effectiveness against the B.1.1.7 variant
3) “both vaccines were 33% effective against symptomatic disease from B.1.617.2, 3 weeks after the first dose compared to around 50% effectiveness against the B.1.1.7 variant”
Read 10 tweets
23 May
Staggering—at least 3 million excess deaths in 2020–which is **1.2 mil** more than the 1.8 mil official numbers: WHO estimates that is the excess in the America & Europe alone (data not yet including Asia, Africa, Middle East).

I’m also imagining India 😢
who.int/data/stories/t…
2) “Excess mortality is defined as the difference in the total number of deaths in a crisis compared to those expected under normal conditions. COVID-19 excess mortality accounts for both the total number of deaths directly attributed to the virus as well as the indirect impact”
3) what about undercount? “A recent assessment of health information systems capacity in 133 countries found that the percentage of registered deaths ranged from 98% in the European region to only 10% in the African region.” Damn! who.int/data/data-coll…
Read 7 tweets

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