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Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
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23 May, 7 tweets, 3 min read
What I think happened with the announcement of new data of the AZ/Pfizer effectiveness against B.1.617.2:

- a press release was issued earlier in the day on Saturday which prompted positive headlines in today's papers

"It's really good", as #Marr has just said

(a quick thread)
This I assume is the press release gov.uk/government/new…
This news was I believe embargoed until 10:30pm yesterday. Note that the press release *does* contain a link to a full preprint of the data.

khub.net/documents/1359…
At around 10:30-11:00pm, PHE released a series of documents.

First of all, many thanks to all working in PHE at all times of day and night to work on the data.

Reading these documents indicates data that shows the effectiveness of the AZ vaccine

As discussed here

PHE are doing world-class scientific analysis of the new variants.

PHE are also (apparently) publishing press releases where views of PHE, the Health and Social Care Secretary, and the Minister for COVID-19 Vaccine Deployment are combined.

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More from @Dr_D_Robertson

Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
20 May
Public Health England have published their data for Variants of Concern.

- B.1.617.2 is becoming dominant with 2,111 new cases
- But also increases in these variants of concern
P1 (+30)
B.1.351 (+41)
- New variant under investigation AV.1

nb cumulative chart

... thread
Here is the cumulative chart on a log scale
And here is a heatmap of cases per week excluding colouring the B.1.1.7 ('Kent') variant
Read 9 tweets
Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
20 May
10% of cases reported today were detected in Bolton
(There is surge testing in Bolton, which may explain part of this.)

But cases are very high there with high case rates in children with a bit of a gap then up to 40-44 year olds. (This *could* indicate household transmission between children and their parents.) Fig: @PHE_uk
Increases in cases are not just confined to the under-60s (Fig: PHE dashboard) although the rate of increase is lower in the over-60s.
Read 12 tweets
Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
20 May
20 incidents/outbreaks in care homes last week - although some signs that these produce fewer hospitalizations. Let's hope that continues.
5 incidents/outbreaks in hospitals last week.
Read 11 tweets
Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
19 May
My @SkyNews interview this afternoon with @skynewssarah with slides in the thread below.

Read 7 tweets
Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
18 May
The overseas travel to amber list countries is potentially a mess. See this for Malta and Spain (currently on the amber list whose advice has changed).
The Foreign Office advice (which tends to be the advice that insurers use to determine whether a travel policy is valid) say this about Spain (on the left) and Malta (on the right).

gov.uk/foreign-travel…
gov.uk/foreign-travel… ImageImage
Yet both pages say 'you should not travel to amber or red list countries' ImageImage
Read 5 tweets
Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
14 May
Chris Whitty has said that B.1.617.2 is *more* transmissible than B.1.1.7

(Number 10 press conference)
SAGE have now published their minutes from yesterday's meeting.

The key sentence is here

gov.uk/government/pub…
"It is therefore highly likely that this variant is more transmissible than B.1.1.7 (high confidence), and it is a realistic possibility that it is as much as 50% more transmissible. ...
Read 16 tweets

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