2/ I believe we're currently witnessing another form of bear market PTSD
Just like most expected a smooth bull run, now many look to be worried about a potential Q1 2018 bear market meltdown, resulting in heavy profit-taking (or even selling for a loss)
4/ The majority expects x,y,z to happen based on the 2017 bull run price action > the opposite, or at least something different will happen (eg. deeper than 40% corrections, longer bull run with longer consolidations in between etc.)
5/ Currently the market is way way oversold, we could dip more but eventually, this will bounce and I believe many low cap alt coins will go up 100% from their lows
6/ At the same time, current price action is building to my point of view that we're going to enter a longer than in previous bull runs (5-9 months), consolidation period
7/ Nothing of the bitcoin, WEB3 thesis has changed, but it's probably going to take a while before 1) trust is restored and 2) more institutional players are all set up to enter with enough funds to carry us to the 2nd half of this run
My thoughts on if we get a bull trap and what would invalidate it
1/ I believe that after a crash like we just had and the following relief rally, at a certain moment there's not enough buy pressure (trust) to push #Bitcoin over 55-60k
3/ Strong #Bitcoin newsflow is what could invalidate this view, as in, large entities (corporates or financial institutions) that put #Bitcoin on their balance sheet or start big crypto services (with serious inflow that soon hit the market)
1/ Alright, looking good so far, long position from 32.5K is doing well and I believe there's a high probability BTC will first move towards 48K vs. making another move lower
2/ Lots of stuff still happening in the background, the China situation seems to be more real than previous FUD but there's a good probability that's already priced in and it looks like China is (potentially) buying the dip
3/ With regard to the China situation, @DoveyWan is hosting a live stream with a few people that know more about this situation at 10am EST today, could be worth checking out
2/ If this scenario does happen I expect alts to eventually bleed a lot which means: shopping time when BTC hits around 30K eventually on a potential retest
This scenario is basically what happened after the 2019 mini bull run (but without the COVID crash)
3/ I still believe @Polkadot has a good shot of becoming one of the leading blockchains in the decades to come
$DOT truly has an innovative design that could potentially leapfrog everything out there and become the layer 0 on which the entire WEB3 stack will be built
1/ This piece of @AlamedaTrabucco got me thinking and resulted in an important conclusion that changes my view on the market and the framework I use, the puzzle is now coming together.
A thread on why we can't compare 2017 with 2021 and why this is BULLISH 🔥
1/ The market is going fast, we're at the make or break it level IMO. Exiting stuff 🔥
-4hr bull div still intact
-200 MA touched
-38K $BTC make or break level
-Many inflow and outflow signals
-Lots of fear in the market
-Large hash rate drop
2/ $BTC touched the 200 MA which could function as a support level and at the same time provides a compelling level to go long for institutional players