1/ Alright, looking good so far, long position from 32.5K is doing well and I believe there's a high probability BTC will first move towards 48K vs. making another move lower
2/ Lots of stuff still happening in the background, the China situation seems to be more real than previous FUD but there's a good probability that's already priced in and it looks like China is (potentially) buying the dip
3/ With regard to the China situation, @DoveyWan is hosting a live stream with a few people that know more about this situation at 10am EST today, could be worth checking out
- Large 4hr bull div has been confirmed
- Even a bull div on the daily in oversold territory is building, will be confirmed if we close today with an uptick in RSI
5/ Bull divs on the daily can take long to build and can take longer to play out, but this is starting to look promising for at least a good relief rally towards 48-53K in the coming weeks
6/ After that things are getting more uncertain, I'm still leaning towards a longer consolidation period, could be 5 could be 10 months before a new ATH
I will be taking some risk off the table between 48-53K
My thoughts on if we get a bull trap and what would invalidate it
1/ I believe that after a crash like we just had and the following relief rally, at a certain moment there's not enough buy pressure (trust) to push #Bitcoin over 55-60k
3/ Strong #Bitcoin newsflow is what could invalidate this view, as in, large entities (corporates or financial institutions) that put #Bitcoin on their balance sheet or start big crypto services (with serious inflow that soon hit the market)
2/ I believe we're currently witnessing another form of bear market PTSD
Just like most expected a smooth bull run, now many look to be worried about a potential Q1 2018 bear market meltdown, resulting in heavy profit-taking (or even selling for a loss)
2/ If this scenario does happen I expect alts to eventually bleed a lot which means: shopping time when BTC hits around 30K eventually on a potential retest
This scenario is basically what happened after the 2019 mini bull run (but without the COVID crash)
3/ I still believe @Polkadot has a good shot of becoming one of the leading blockchains in the decades to come
$DOT truly has an innovative design that could potentially leapfrog everything out there and become the layer 0 on which the entire WEB3 stack will be built
1/ This piece of @AlamedaTrabucco got me thinking and resulted in an important conclusion that changes my view on the market and the framework I use, the puzzle is now coming together.
A thread on why we can't compare 2017 with 2021 and why this is BULLISH 🔥
1/ The market is going fast, we're at the make or break it level IMO. Exiting stuff 🔥
-4hr bull div still intact
-200 MA touched
-38K $BTC make or break level
-Many inflow and outflow signals
-Lots of fear in the market
-Large hash rate drop
2/ $BTC touched the 200 MA which could function as a support level and at the same time provides a compelling level to go long for institutional players