Stitch has approximately 6,000 stylists on the payroll which probably costs something like $150 million annually. This is a relatively large expense for the company of this size.
This investment is unique in apparel ecom and I do not believe that it is currently thought of as a strategic differentiator by the investment community.
Now queue up previews which are coming to the U.S. in the near future. This was a standard offering on Trunk Club for years which of course makes perfect sense for an apparel in a box service.
Stitch already offers previews in the U.K. where 3/4 of consumers are utilizing the service. Driving the penetration of previews in the U.S. to U.K. levels could really open some new doors for Stitch.
Allowing consumers to self select items directly from the algo engine has the potential to free up a lot of time for stylists to reinvest into new revenue generating activities.
Redirecting stylists into new order/lapsed customer hunters may be an attractive way of generating increased sales and opening the service up to a larger audience.
Zoom styling sessions for super actives, more personalized attempts to reengage lapsed customers - Trunk Club did this well - or usage of $FB properties to create widely followed stylists could all be on the table.
Maybe Stitch will go to a zero styling fee to drive usage for the current service and continue to charge a styling fee for more personalized sessions.
Wall Street really hasnβt considered the untapped potential of Stitchβs large annual investment in stylists and previews may help change that.
Version 2.0 of the core fix product will either allow for far more productivity in this expense line item or the opportunity for greater revenue generation.
Stitchβs platform was created with a consumer facing service that was not initially optimized for mass appeal but as the service continues to evolve and improve the difficulty in replicating it will become increasingly clear.
A store-less, highly efficient model selling first run apparel may be very well positioned versus traditional retail/fast fashion giants.
Great execution will be required to evolve the service beyond its current state but the potential is clearly there.
Good execution, or the lack thereof, is a risk for any equity investment but for Stitch it is a particularity important part of the equation. I continue to believe this team and the board are more than up for the challenge.
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Some more thoughts on $SFIX and its evolving consumer service - no views on the share price in the short-term.
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Stitch Fix's current 'no look' fix business in the U.S. has grown quite large despite addressing a fairly small portion of the overall apparel market.
Not to knock the current product but it is decidedly non-traditional and has had the burden of carrying significant friction when it comes to acquiring customers.
Over the years, I've been involved in some real battleground names where the debate over the company's prospects was quite intense to say the least.
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With some of these companies, I, and other longs, have been opposite some highly reputable, brand name funds.
At one investor meeting many years ago, after going over a favored long at the time, I was hit with 'but so & so are short that name' to which I responded 'so what, weβre both going to be right.'
Some thoughts on a narrow topic: What $SFIX's service may look like as it continues to evolve. As usual I have ABSOLUTELY no view on short-term results or quarterly expectations.
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My real interest lies in what the company might look like over the next 5 to 10 years. On that basis, Stitchfix remains a very interesting company to analyze.
The company continues to inch impressively closer to its end state: a 100% unique, personalized apparel showroom for consumers.
My instinct is that the market is currently setting business values that may be planting the seeds for the next round of consolidation in global delivery.
Among other things, business fundamentals and expectations combine to imprecisely drive share prices/asset values. In turn, those same share prices/values can also shift fundamental opportunity sets h/t reflexivity.
Changing prices can open up previously closed windows on strategic M&A and create new opportunities that might not otherwise exist at different values.