Thread by @StefSimanowitz

@Dominic2306 FACT: I acknowledge that in the next tweet, Dom (Tweet 10)

FACT: There was a SPI-B meeting on 12/3/20 (attendees not listed)

FACT: There was a SAGE meeting on 13/3 & some of the docs are marked 12/3

FACT: The redacted ‘minutes’ were only released in May gov.uk/government/pub…

@Dominic2306 FACT: The claim in the Sunday Times was that you changed your mind on #HerdImmunity in mid-March

This tallies with your own claim: “we stared to figure out plan B”

FACT: @ShippersUnbound says the “if pensioners die too bad” comment was “at a private meeting” at the end of Feb.

@Dominic2306 @ShippersUnbound @BylineTimes @BBCNewsnight @maitlis @jonsnowC4 @cathynewman @TanDhesi @justinmadders @mrjamesob @DawnButlerBrent @Keir_Starmer FACT: On the day the PM was telling @Schofe that “one of the theories was we could take it on the chin”, you were attending the SAGE meeting that - bizarrely - concluded social distancing wasn’t necessary

On the same day, a 70yr old woman became the first Briton to die of COVID

https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1370281854067179521

@Dominic2306 @ShippersUnbound @BylineTimes @BBCNewsnight @maitlis @jonsnowC4 @cathynewman @TanDhesi @justinmadders @mrjamesob @DawnButlerBrent @Keir_Starmer @Schofe FACT: At the SAGE meeting on 27 Feb 2020, the Reasonable Worst Case for deaths was estimated at 1% of the potentially infected 80% of the population (around 500,000).

The minutes show that this figure was welcomed(!), since the earlier estimate was 2-3%
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

@Dominic2306 @ShippersUnbound @BylineTimes @BBCNewsnight @maitlis @jonsnowC4 @cathynewman @TanDhesi @justinmadders @mrjamesob @DawnButlerBrent @Keir_Starmer @Schofe @openDemocracyUK @Peston @bbclaurak @BBCHughPym @BBCPallab @SamCoatesSky @SophyRidgeSky @AndrewMarr9 @DrEricDing FACT: This Reasonable Worst Case would have been known to Cummings when he attended his first SAGE meeting on 5/3

He would've also known that on 21/2 NERVTAG had estimated death toll of up to 1.3 million

Which is why some of the decisions in this meeting are almost inexplicable

@Dominic2306 @ShippersUnbound @BylineTimes @BBCNewsnight @maitlis @jonsnowC4 @cathynewman @TanDhesi @justinmadders @mrjamesob @DawnButlerBrent @Keir_Starmer @Schofe @openDemocracyUK @Peston @bbclaurak @BBCHughPym @BBCPallab @SamCoatesSky @SophyRidgeSky @AndrewMarr9 @DrEricDing @BBCBreaking @GoldbergRadio @PaulBrandITV @TomClarke_ITV @adamboultonSKY @afneil @johnpilger @OwenJones84 @campbellclaret @GNev2 FACT: Minutes of this 5/3 meeting suggest "sustained community transmission was underway” & yet it was decided “there are no scientific grounds to moving from contain to delay”

Surely there were grounds to start protecting & vulnerable?

Apparently not!
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

@Dominic2306 @ShippersUnbound @BylineTimes @BBCNewsnight @maitlis @jonsnowC4 @cathynewman @TanDhesi @justinmadders @mrjamesob @DawnButlerBrent @Keir_Starmer @Schofe @openDemocracyUK @Peston @bbclaurak @BBCHughPym @BBCPallab @SamCoatesSky @SophyRidgeSky @AndrewMarr9 @DrEricDing @BBCBreaking @GoldbergRadio @PaulBrandITV @TomClarke_ITV @adamboultonSKY @afneil @johnpilger @OwenJones84 @campbellclaret @GNev2 @SkyNewsBreak @TelegraphNews @cnnbrk @PeterStefanovi2 @PeterTatchell @GaryLineker @peterjukes @NafeezAhmed @WritesBright @Hardeep_Matharu FACT: SAGE 5/3 recognized the risk facing the elderly & vulnerable & the need for “early measures”

YET they recommend there should be a delay of “roughly 2 weeks” before isolating them

"Cocooning of older & vulnerable patients can start later”

No reason is given for his delay!

@Dominic2306 @ShippersUnbound @BylineTimes @BBCNewsnight @maitlis @jonsnowC4 @cathynewman @TanDhesi @justinmadders @mrjamesob @DawnButlerBrent @Keir_Starmer @Schofe @openDemocracyUK @Peston @bbclaurak @BBCHughPym @BBCPallab @SamCoatesSky @SophyRidgeSky @AndrewMarr9 @DrEricDing @BBCBreaking @GoldbergRadio @PaulBrandITV @TomClarke_ITV @adamboultonSKY @afneil @johnpilger @OwenJones84 @campbellclaret @GNev2 @SkyNewsBreak @TelegraphNews @cnnbrk @PeterStefanovi2 @PeterTatchell @GaryLineker @peterjukes @NafeezAhmed @WritesBright @Hardeep_Matharu @mattfrei @eyejosh @JohnJCrace @MarinaHyde @PatrickStrud @rachelburden @vicderbyshire @faisalislam FACT: SAGE recognised "preventing all social interaction in public spaces...would have an effect, but would be very difficult to implement."

Was this advice from Dr Halpern
based on the unscientific concept of "behavioural fatigue" / “lockdown fatigue”

@Dominic2306 @ShippersUnbound @BylineTimes @BBCNewsnight @maitlis @jonsnowC4 @cathynewman @TanDhesi @justinmadders @mrjamesob @DawnButlerBrent @Keir_Starmer @Schofe @openDemocracyUK @Peston @bbclaurak @BBCHughPym @BBCPallab @SamCoatesSky @SophyRidgeSky @AndrewMarr9 @DrEricDing @BBCBreaking @GoldbergRadio @PaulBrandITV @TomClarke_ITV @adamboultonSKY @afneil @johnpilger @OwenJones84 @campbellclaret @GNev2 @SkyNewsBreak @TelegraphNews @cnnbrk @PeterStefanovi2 @PeterTatchell @GaryLineker @peterjukes @NafeezAhmed @WritesBright @Hardeep_Matharu @mattfrei @eyejosh @JohnJCrace @MarinaHyde @PatrickStrud @rachelburden @vicderbyshire FACT: #BehaviouralFatigue was the spurious reason given for not locking down until 24/3/20

Incredibly, no one in govt can remember where the idea of came from

Halpern says it wasn’t him

@B_I_Tweets won’t confirm whether they/Halpern expressed concerns about the absurd concept.

https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1372465202306899969

@Dominic2306 @ShippersUnbound @BylineTimes @BBCNewsnight @maitlis @jonsnowC4 @cathynewman @TanDhesi @justinmadders @mrjamesob @DawnButlerBrent @Keir_Starmer @Schofe @openDemocracyUK @Peston @bbclaurak @BBCHughPym @BBCPallab @SamCoatesSky @SophyRidgeSky @AndrewMarr9 @DrEricDing @BBCBreaking @GoldbergRadio @PaulBrandITV @TomClarke_ITV @adamboultonSKY @afneil @johnpilger @OwenJones84 @campbellclaret @GNev2 @SkyNewsBreak @TelegraphNews @cnnbrk @PeterStefanovi2 @PeterTatchell @GaryLineker @peterjukes @NafeezAhmed @WritesBright @Hardeep_Matharu @mattfrei @eyejosh @JohnJCrace @MarinaHyde @PatrickStrud @rachelburden @vicderbyshire @B_I_Tweets FACT: There are a huge number of victims of the #COVID19 pandemic

You aren’t one of them