I gather Russell Viner has been on the radio to tell us again about how schools are not a source of COVID transmission. So here are a few graphs about what's been happening in Bolton. First, let's look at which age groups currently have the highest rates of infection.
What a surprise -- it's school children. But note there's a separate peak with a mode among the 35-39 year age group. Which just happens to correspond to parents of school-age children. I wonder where they got it from?
OK, but maybe the direction of transmission is from parents to childrens, you say? No. Look at this graph and observe how infection spread out from children/teenagers.
And *when* did infections rise in school children? There've been relatively high rates throughout 2021, but they rose steeply when school went back in March, then fell back down over Easter vacation. But then school went back, with B.1.617.2 now in circulation, and cases exploded
Some are still arguing about whether herd immunity was ever Govt strategy, but DfE policy strongly suggests that it *never stopped* being the strategy for children. How else to explain the recent relaxation of mask requirements, to take but one example?

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More from @ProfColinDavis

19 Mar
Should a 77 year old vicar be sent to prison for defying the court and standing up for the right to protest Govt inaction on climate? This is the question that a London magistrate will be considering tonight. [THREAD]
Rev Sue Parfitt (77, of @CothamParishChurch in Bristol) and Ruth Jarman (a mother of three from Hampshire) are part of Christian @CClimateAction. They were arrested in Sept 2020 and charged with violation of a Section 14 order (an order used by police to outlaw public assembly).
Sue and Ruth were found guilty today (Thurs 18/3). They defied this ruling by filming in court. As Sue says in this video, she is "protesting the complicity of this court. It's not me who's guilty -- the government is guilty".
Read 10 tweets
20 Nov 20
This was not sudden.

I’ve commented on this article already, but I can’t help venting about the supposed “mystery of Bristol's soaring Covid-19 infection rate”.

There’s nothing “sudden” about it for those who’ve been paying attention.
Over 2 months ago it was possible to see exponential growth in Bristol in the NHS Pathways data:
And the exponential growth in positive cases in Bristol was very clear over a month ago:
Read 11 tweets
19 Nov 20
Today @BristolCouncil reports 2,252 positive cases from 13,659 tests over the past 7 days. That's a test positivity rate of 16.5%. New York city just closed all their public schools because their positivity rate exceeded 3% (I understand that the WHO recommends a 5% threshold).
Mayor Cuomo takes a strong line: "the decision isn’t just about a school, it’s about a school in an intensely infected community, with a family that’s infected and a candy store that has a high infection rate, on a bus route that has a high infection rate".
It's a striking difference from the "open at all costs" mantra in the UK. independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-n…
Read 5 tweets
17 Nov 20
This correction is better late than never, but I fear the misreporting had a very negative impact on Bristol. Throughout October, as our Covid numbers went up, people compared these numbers with those reported at Bristol Uni, and concluded that growth was restricted to students.
At the time I tried repeatedly to warn people that this was a misreading of the data, and that cases were growing outside the university community.
However, the dominant narrative was that the numbers reflected students.
Read 11 tweets
18 Oct 20
(THREAD) Here is my understanding of the UK's Covid situation, and why we need a circuit breaker NOW.
Whether we call it a circuit breaker or a lockdown, some dramatic cessation of normal activity is inevitable fairly soon. If we just carry on at the present rate, we should expect to be up to around 2000 deaths a day by the end of the year.
In fact, that’s probably optimistic, as the collapse of a number of local hospital systems by that point will mean a greatly increased case fatality rate and/or an increase in ordinarily preventable non-COVID deaths. It’s hard to predict exactly when it’ll happen, but ...
Read 18 tweets
30 Sep 20
At today’s press briefing, Chris #Whitty asserted that rates of #COVID19 are not increasing in school-age children, based on a graph showing the rate of test positivity has not increased in the 5-10 or 11-14 year old age groups. 1/n
However, the test positivity rate isn’t very illuminating. We know there are other viruses in circulation that have symptoms that overlap with COVID. The test positivity rate conflates the increase in COVID cases with the increase in these other viruses. 2/n
It would be of interest to look at the rate of increase of positive cases across age groups (I’ve not seen these data). However, these data would also be problematic to interpret, because:

a) Maybe 40% of infected children are asymptomatic, and won’t be tested; and ... 3/n
Read 15 tweets

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