One of the key features of Network Effect models is volatility within a logarithmic trend. The vol is a feature not a bug as it is more than compensated by the returns over time.
Example 1: Google
Example 2:
Example 3: Facebook
Example 4: Bitcoin
As long as the participants in the network keep growing over time, the value of the network rises exponentially..
Generally speaking, the more volatility the price has, the higher the return over time IF the network grows.
This concept in crypto can be best represented by this chart. Already it is the fastest rate of adoption of any technology in human history (113% per annum vs 63% for the internet).
Considering the chart above assumes a slowdown in adoption as more people come in, the only question you really need to ask yourself is whether adoption is going to slow massively or not. Even if we slow to 63% per annum, we still get to a billion users by 2026.
Then you need to add in the effect of Diem and CBDC's which create even larger networks that interoperate with the digital asset world.
This is why the price is volatile but exponential over time.
It will be the same with all the other new technologies too that are seeing massive network effects.
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A major asset class crashed 42% in 14 days, wiping out $1.02trn in value in an orgy of liquidation of people up to 100 x levered, with very low regulation. Many tokens fell up to 70%, including unregulated lending and borrowing biz.
Beneath the head line:
Crypto had a major, major VAR-shock test and NOTHING happened.
Leverage liquidation was offset by overcollateralisation. No one was left holding the baby.
No firm went under.
The Fed didn't need to step in.
Defi didn't break and carried on near normal
There were no daisy chains of collateral losses.
There was no collateral pressure.
Stablecoins remained stable.
A few exchanges went down for an hour or two. No exchange big losses occurred, no need to mutualise losses either.
No protocol failed.
No firms needed rapid funding.
Im just mulling over the evolution of the digital asset space...
My thoughts are that obviously we are mid cycle in this bull run. The two big breakout developments this time were Defi and NFT's. 1/2
When we get the next down cycle, there will be a clean up in this space and the winners will be ready for their mass adoption phase.
We haven't even started with what NFT's will morph into. It is not about art. It is about attaching trust and verification to anything.
I literally have no idea what protocols outside of BTC and ETH will get actual meaningful adoption. None of us do but some will and some will become ghost chains.
I fist bought Bitcoin in November 2013. Here is the original article where I applied rudimentary stock to flow analysis, later perfected by @100trillionUSD
My equivalence price target was 700 ounces of gold = one BTC. At currency prices that is around $1.3m.
It kind of created a stir back then and gave the first ever macro valuation model for BTC.
It was also based around adoption effects...
Obviously, I think it actually exceeds the gold relative valuation over time. This cycle might get it to the original fair value, maybe not.
EU ETS (EU Carbon emissions) continue to be one of the best non-crypto trades in the macro world, outperforming all commodities except lumber. I still think this can double from here this year...
We have covered it well on Real Vision. First with the Citi team who laid out the story...
Bitcoin is nearly as oversold as it was in March 2020...
The weekly RSI is close to the levels that we saw in corrections in the first part of the 2017 bull run, before bitcoin hit hyperspace. These are the pauses that refresh a bull market.
ETH might have a tad further to go, either in time or price...