A major asset class crashed 42% in 14 days, wiping out $1.02trn in value in an orgy of liquidation of people up to 100 x levered, with very low regulation. Many tokens fell up to 70%, including unregulated lending and borrowing biz.
Beneath the head line:
Crypto had a major, major VAR-shock test and NOTHING happened.
Leverage liquidation was offset by overcollateralisation. No one was left holding the baby.
No firm went under.
The Fed didn't need to step in.
Defi didn't break and carried on near normal
There were no daisy chains of collateral losses.
There was no collateral pressure.
Stablecoins remained stable.
A few exchanges went down for an hour or two. No exchange big losses occurred, no need to mutualise losses either.
No protocol failed.
No firms needed rapid funding.
No one had open ended losses.
The system didn't break.
It offered zero systemic risk to the broader financial world.
Speculators lost money and that is it.
This is what I first saw in crypto back in 2012. A new, anti-fragile financial system that doesn't break in times of stress, where ownership of assets is clear and losses are not mutualised to tax payers.
This was a big two weeks for crypto and for the future financial system.
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One of the key features of Network Effect models is volatility within a logarithmic trend. The vol is a feature not a bug as it is more than compensated by the returns over time.
Im just mulling over the evolution of the digital asset space...
My thoughts are that obviously we are mid cycle in this bull run. The two big breakout developments this time were Defi and NFT's. 1/2
When we get the next down cycle, there will be a clean up in this space and the winners will be ready for their mass adoption phase.
We haven't even started with what NFT's will morph into. It is not about art. It is about attaching trust and verification to anything.
I literally have no idea what protocols outside of BTC and ETH will get actual meaningful adoption. None of us do but some will and some will become ghost chains.
I fist bought Bitcoin in November 2013. Here is the original article where I applied rudimentary stock to flow analysis, later perfected by @100trillionUSD
My equivalence price target was 700 ounces of gold = one BTC. At currency prices that is around $1.3m.
It kind of created a stir back then and gave the first ever macro valuation model for BTC.
It was also based around adoption effects...
Obviously, I think it actually exceeds the gold relative valuation over time. This cycle might get it to the original fair value, maybe not.
EU ETS (EU Carbon emissions) continue to be one of the best non-crypto trades in the macro world, outperforming all commodities except lumber. I still think this can double from here this year...
We have covered it well on Real Vision. First with the Citi team who laid out the story...
Bitcoin is nearly as oversold as it was in March 2020...
The weekly RSI is close to the levels that we saw in corrections in the first part of the 2017 bull run, before bitcoin hit hyperspace. These are the pauses that refresh a bull market.
ETH might have a tad further to go, either in time or price...