Following the spectacle of a Glasgow mob overturning the rule of law, and given the highly politicised virtue signalling going on; its time to do a thread on the SNP, Scotland and the immigration debate. And doing so dispassionately, sticking to facts.
(1/19)
1️⃣ Claims that Scotland’s view of immigration is divergent from the rest of the UK is false.

It is categorically untrue that Scots think about the immigration debate differently from English of Welsh people.
(2/19)
But don’t take my word of it, let’s look at the ScotCen researchers analysis of the Scottish and British Social Attitudes Surveys (2017).

➡️ Scotland has relatively positive view on benefits of immigration
➡️ This is the exact same picture as in England or Wales
(3/19)
➡️ According to the researchers themselves: "Far more people in Scotland think that immigration is good for Britain's economy (46%) than think it is bad (17%), but the figures are almost identical in England and Wales.
(4/19)
"Equally voters in Scotland are much more likely to feel that immigration enriches Britain's culture (43%) than to believe it undermines that culture (20%), but again in this they are little different from their counterparts in England and Wales."
(5/19)
➡️ Indeed the SNP are so sure that most Scots think just like rUK their 2014 White Paper on scexit pledged a points based immigration system remarkably similar to the UK one they seem to spend much airtime decrying.
(6/19)
Pg 270: “The government will take forward points-based approach targeted at particular Scottish requirements”

Or put it another way, the SNP were proposing to keep UK styled points based system but just alter the criteria for entry. The narcissism of small differences?
(7/19)
2️⃣ The SNP themselves called for forcible removal of migrants who fail asylum claim in 2014 white paper.

Despite FM & Humza Yousaf’s rhetoric about moral outrage at the attempted‘forced removal’ of two illegal migrants, they themselves supported precisely the same policy
(8/19)
➡️ Page 271 of ‘Scotland’s Future’ (SNP’s 2014 prospectus on scexit) reads: “if a failed asylum seeker is a risk to the public, secure accommodation will be sought whilst steps are taken to remove them.”

Or forced removal in other words. SNP policy circa 2014 white paper
(9/19)
So the SNP in 2021 are condemning Priti Patel for doing precisely what they proposed to do in an independent Scotland.

But naturally the SNP would point out their opposition to ‘unannounced’ raids to remove people forcibly. But this just exposes their naivety.
(10/19)
3️⃣ Ending ‘unannounced’ raids isn’t a realistic proposition

While forcible removal is seen by some as inflammatory, SNP are publicly opposing what they call ‘dawn raids’. But the SNP themselves concede a need for forcible removal of illegal migrants with no asylum claim
(11/19)
In their White Paper they wrote about placing those to be forcibly removed in “secure accommodation”. No indication on how this would be achieved.

Presumably the SNP think they can just make appointments with those they’re planning to forcibly remove?
(12/19)
4️⃣ And what of Scottish Labour’s bizarre entry into this debate?

I’ll keep this short as this thread is already long enough, but it would be wrong to point out SNP double standards but ignore Scottish Labour’s.
(13/19)
The point on ‘refugees are welcome here’ is fascinating, given the two men in question are Sikhs from the worlds biggest functioning democracy on earth namely India. But let’s not get bogged down in facts - Paul Sweeney thinks he can virtue signal in a polarising debate.
(14/19)
But putting that aside, this is the same Labour Party that had Home Sec John Reid (back when Lab won elections) call for an end to a ‘free for all’ open door immigration policy in 2006 claiming it wasn’t ‘fair or sensible’ & imposed extra burdens on schools & hospitals.
(15/19)
Labour, just like the SNP seem to be forgetting their own past policies and rhetoric on the immigration debate. They might have forgotten, but I haven’t.
(16/19)
I know vapid virtue signalling in politics when I see it. But Anas Sarwar presumably thinks this will advance his popularity.
(17/19)
I’m extremely disappointed in him and Scottish Labour over all of this. The immigration & asylum debate doesn’t need any more morality flagging grand standing.

It needs a calm and measured debate. Something nobody seems able to provide the voters right now.
(18/19)
Sources:

▪️’Do Scots think differently about immigration?’
bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotla…

▪️’Sturgeon & Sarwar's immigration nonsense is worse than virtue signalling: it's arrant hypocrisy’
telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2021/0…

▪️‘Scotland’s Future: Your Guide To An Independent Scotland’
(19/19)

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More from @DeanMThomson

18 May
John Swinney is no longer the education secretary, being moved by the FM to become ‘minister in charge of covid recovery’ (still no health secretary appointed yet)

So let’s review John Swinney’s five years heading up Scottish education.
(1/16)
1️⃣ He abandoned a flagship education bill

Swinney dropped a major education reform which would have transferred power over the running of schools, the curriculum and budgets from councils to headteachers.

He buckled because the teaching unions told him to.
(2/16)
John Swinney claimed standards were improving, and its thanks to an absence of that flagship SNP education bill

“It is clear to me we would not have come so far in such a short period of time if we had relied on introducing an Education Bill.”
(3/16)
Read 16 tweets
12 May
"Let us demonstrate, with cool heads & patient persuasion that Scotland is ready" Ms Sturgeon, 28th Nov 2020, STV

A lot has happened since the FM that, how has the 'patient persuasion' on independence progressed?

➡️What of the polls?
➡️What of the economic case for indy?
[1/16]
1⃣ What of the polls?

A polling average since beginning of April reveals 46% against independence & 45% in favour.

But if we take 10 most recent polls, no lead extends to 47% opposed & 44% in favour. At same time, the number of undecideds has remained at around 9% of pop
[2/16]
If anything Nicola Sturgeon's 'patient persuasion' is indeed persuading people, but of the merits of the UK as compared to the weak case for scexit.

A regular 'yes' lead has by this point largely disappeared in favour of remaining in the UK.
[3/16]
Read 16 tweets
26 Apr
I've been doing some research for a future book on Anglophobia in Scotland. I thought I'd share some findings.

A thread on Anglophobia and its relationship with Scottish nationalism (lower case 'n') in Scotland
[1/25]
1⃣ While the SNP is not Anglophobic per se, Anglophobia seems to be a feature and not a bug with Scottish nationalism.
[2/25]
➡️Looking at the data:

Look at this multivariate analysis of Islamophobia and Anglophobia in Scotland

It has been taken from 'Findings and Economic Research Programme on Devolution & Constitutional Change , briefings No.24, March 2005'
[3/25]
Read 29 tweets
21 Apr
Why turnout & the number of postal votes matter in this election. And why Nicola Sturgeon is so risk averse as to duck BBCQT & unveil a magic money tree manifesto expanding middle class welfare

A thread.
(1/25)
1️⃣ Postal Voting

The Holyrood 2021 election there are a million postal votes, 23.8% of the electorate.

This is an increase on the 17.7% in 2016.
(2/25)
In 2016 the election turnout overall was 55.8% (constituency) and 55.9% (regional)

And exactly 726,555 postal votes were issued (17.7% of the total electorate)

Almost 77% of postal votes issued were returned by electors in 2016
(3/25)
Read 26 tweets
21 Apr
Some curiosities in the Scottish government’s approach to education, international comparisons...and picking fights with teachers...
(1/13)
1️⃣ Withdrawal from international comparisons

ScotGov has withdrawn from two international education surveys:

➡️Trends in International Mathematics & Science Study (Timss),

➡️ Progress in International Reading Literacy Study (PIRLS)
(2/13)
PISA is last of big three Scotland still participated in.

2019 PISA reveals declining Scottish performance in maths and science.
(3/13)
Read 14 tweets
19 Apr
Is anyone else getting the sensation that polling is overstating SNP support? Or that the SNP are concerned about their internal numbers?

Here's a thread outlining some of my thinking.
➡️SNP Turnout issues
➡️Thinning poll leads
➡️Comparing 2016 & 2021
[1/19]
1⃣ Comparing poll leads (constituency)

The run-up to 2016 had the SNP polling very strongly:

In Feb 24th 2016 the SNP polled 60% (ten weeks out from the elections).
[2/19] Image
By March 22nd 2016, the SNP polled 56% (six weeks from the vote). Still very strong.
[3/19] Image
Read 20 tweets

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