New article: Mental Pitfalls of COVID management
When one country fails, the problem is that country.
When all Western countries fail, the problem is their system.
Here are the top mental pitfalls they fell into (& lessons for us on how to think): 🧵
unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com/p/the-mental-p…
When one country fails, the problem is that country.
When all Western countries fail, the problem is their system.
Here are the top mental pitfalls they fell into (& lessons for us on how to think): 🧵
unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com/p/the-mental-p…
1. Not enough cost-benefit analyses
What's the cost-benefit of a lockdown if you're not willing to add more measures?
What's the ROI of wearing masks?
Why did we trade off lives, money and freedom, but privacy was sacred?
What's the cost-benefit of a lockdown if you're not willing to add more measures?
What's the ROI of wearing masks?
Why did we trade off lives, money and freedom, but privacy was sacred?
It took months to get to something even close to this, and when we did, politicians weren't paying attention 
Whenever you have a hard decision to make, translate it into a cost-benefit
2. Not Accounting for Confidence
Every data point, every assumption has a a certain likelihood of being right. Account for your confidence, or you'll make mistakes
Eg masks:
High confidence of a low cost
Low confidence of a high benefit
➡️ Make them mandatory during the pandemic
Every data point, every assumption has a a certain likelihood of being right. Account for your confidence, or you'll make mistakes
Eg masks:
High confidence of a low cost
Low confidence of a high benefit
➡️ Make them mandatory during the pandemic
3. Dogmatism
The opposite of risk-adjusted cost-benefit is dogmatism: When things are sacred. Eg:
No tech for contact tracing because of privacy concerns
No masks for individual freedom
Masks outdoors always
The opposite of risk-adjusted cost-benefit is dogmatism: When things are sacred. Eg:
No tech for contact tracing because of privacy concerns
No masks for individual freedom
Masks outdoors always
4. Social Proof
Do like the others.
Western countries copied each other. Too bad none knew how to manage the crisis.
Do like the others.
Western countries copied each other. Too bad none knew how to manage the crisis.
5. Availability bias
We act on the things that are easiest to think about, not the best or most important ones. So when your neighbors are managing COVID poorly, you still do the same as them.
We act on the things that are easiest to think about, not the best or most important ones. So when your neighbors are managing COVID poorly, you still do the same as them.
6. Authority
We listen to people who seem authoritative, even when they are wrong. Like all the countries that listened to poor epidemiological advice (hi Sweden!)
We listen to people who seem authoritative, even when they are wrong. Like all the countries that listened to poor epidemiological advice (hi Sweden!)
7. Escalation of Commitment & Confirmation Bias
How many governments changed course throughout the pandemic? I can't think of any. Why? Because it would mean they had to accept they had been wrong. Few want to do this.
The best managers do, however.
How many governments changed course throughout the pandemic? I can't think of any. Why? Because it would mean they had to accept they had been wrong. Few want to do this.
The best managers do, however.
https://twitter.com/zackkanter/status/1383494783591583749?s=20
8. Reinventing the Wheel
Ppl always want to create something new, unique. Even if the pbm they're facing has already been solved (more elegantly) somewhere else. Like in Eastern Asia, for example.
unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com/p/top-24-covid…
Ppl always want to create something new, unique. Even if the pbm they're facing has already been solved (more elegantly) somewhere else. Like in Eastern Asia, for example.
unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com/p/top-24-covid…
9. Desensitization (and hedonic adaptation, framing, storytelling, and anchoring)
Ppl get used to external stimuli, whether good or bad. We got desensitized to deaths, or quickly forgot them after a drop in cases.
You can use that to your advantage by reframing pbms.
Ppl get used to external stimuli, whether good or bad. We got desensitized to deaths, or quickly forgot them after a drop in cases.
You can use that to your advantage by reframing pbms.
More details in the full article
unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com/p/the-mental-p…
unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com/p/the-mental-p…
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
