Here are the Top 25 mistakes from COVID management, from least to most important: Thread 🧵
25. Infection parties
Before vaccines, we should have left people who wanted to be free to get infected in a safe environment.
25. Infection parties
Before vaccines, we should have left people who wanted to be free to get infected in a safe environment.
24. Immunity Passports
Passed an infection? Vaccinated? Can't get one? No more restrictions for you.
Any argument against it I've heard so far is either properly worried about details that can be fixed, or has some high-level concern that is not rooted in reality.
Passed an infection? Vaccinated? Can't get one? No more restrictions for you.
Any argument against it I've heard so far is either properly worried about details that can be fixed, or has some high-level concern that is not rooted in reality.
23. Not Knowing Who to Trust
Credentialed experts and non-expert nobodies: both groups have people who got it extremely right and extremely wrong. That meant ppl (and politicians) didn't know who to pay attention to
Credentialed experts and non-expert nobodies: both groups have people who got it extremely right and extremely wrong. That meant ppl (and politicians) didn't know who to pay attention to
22. Underestimating People’s Willingness to Do the Right Thing
Many countries hesitated way too much in applying lockdowns early on. They feared they wouldn't do what was asked. Those who thought that had no understanding of how humans think
Many countries hesitated way too much in applying lockdowns early on. They feared they wouldn't do what was asked. Those who thought that had no understanding of how humans think
21. Lying to the Public
For example, telling ppl that masks don't work to keep them for health workers was stupid. It undermined the government's credibility.
For example, telling ppl that masks don't work to keep them for health workers was stupid. It undermined the government's credibility.
20. PCR Test Management
The arrogance of creating our own tests, failed tests, not enough of them
19 . Letting States Fend for Themselves
True in the US, Russia, Brazil... All very successful countries.
States weren't prepared to deal with this.
The arrogance of creating our own tests, failed tests, not enough of them
19 . Letting States Fend for Themselves
True in the US, Russia, Brazil... All very successful countries.
States weren't prepared to deal with this.
18. Forgetting that Good Fences Make Good Neighbors
There's been some sort of psychological barrier against proper border control. It should have been trivial. Just stop ppl at the border for a rapid test & quarantine a few days for another one
There's been some sort of psychological barrier against proper border control. It should have been trivial. Just stop ppl at the border for a rapid test & quarantine a few days for another one
17. Storytelling Against Reality
Some leaders thought they could repeat over and over that the pandemic was about to disappear and it would somehow become a reality
Some leaders thought they could repeat over and over that the pandemic was about to disappear and it would somehow become a reality
16. Not Adapting to Lower Income Areas
Ppl there had to go out to work, and came back to overpopulated houses & neighborhoods, among other failures.
15. Missing that the Virus Would Mutate
We knew it would. It did.
We knew it would probably be deadlier early on. It is.
Ppl there had to go out to work, and came back to overpopulated houses & neighborhoods, among other failures.
15. Missing that the Virus Would Mutate
We knew it would. It did.
We knew it would probably be deadlier early on. It is.
14. Not Understanding Exponentials
"Oh not a problem. Just a few thousand cases..."
"Oh not a problem. Just a few thousand cases..."
13. Not Realizing the Value of Time has Changed
It's fine to take months to debate and approve a law. Normally. A pandemic is not normal. Adapt your processes accordingly.
It's fine to take months to debate and approve a law. Normally. A pandemic is not normal. Adapt your processes accordingly.
12. Be Unable to Make Decisions Under Uncertainty
It's ok the evidence on masks is not 100% perfect. It's good enough to know we should mask up.
It's ok that you don't have an outbreak yet. It will come to you.
It's not because you don't see it that it doesn't exist
It's ok the evidence on masks is not 100% perfect. It's good enough to know we should mask up.
It's ok that you don't have an outbreak yet. It will come to you.
It's not because you don't see it that it doesn't exist
11. Misunderstanding Individual Freedom
Individual freedom is important. It’s not the only important thing. You are not free to punch somebody in the face, because other people suffer the blow. Same thing for masks and COVID
Individual freedom is important. It’s not the only important thing. You are not free to punch somebody in the face, because other people suffer the blow. Same thing for masks and COVID
10. Making Privacy Sacred
We could have sacrificed a bit of privacy to get life, freedom, and our economy back.
Somehow, privacy won, even if we have none.
We could have sacrificed a bit of privacy to get life, freedom, and our economy back.
Somehow, privacy won, even if we have none.
9. Challenge Trials
You get vaccines months earlier at the cost of nothing, because instead of waiting for infections in the trials, you force them. Same infections anyways, just months earlier and to those who accept it and get $ for it.
You get vaccines months earlier at the cost of nothing, because instead of waiting for infections in the trials, you force them. Same infections anyways, just months earlier and to those who accept it and get $ for it.
8. Seeing Nails Everywhere
Countries applied a Hammer early on.
It worked.
They decided to keep just applying it over and over, instead of learning to dance.
Countries applied a Hammer early on.
It worked.
They decided to keep just applying it over and over, instead of learning to dance.
7. Aerosols, Outdoors, Masks, and Superspreaders
It was clear aerosols caused this around March 2020.
A year in, and the CDC and the WHO had still not fully accepted it, along with its ramifications
It was clear aerosols caused this around March 2020.
A year in, and the CDC and the WHO had still not fully accepted it, along with its ramifications
6. Regionalism
SK JP TW NZ AU IS MN VT TH have solved COVID?
Who cares!
Let's just copy what my failed neighbors have done!
SK JP TW NZ AU IS MN VT TH have solved COVID?
Who cares!
Let's just copy what my failed neighbors have done!
5. Applying Developed Country Logic to Emerging Economies
Because poorer areas work differently than richer ones, poor countries worked differently.
It was harder to stop the virus, but the cost was much higher. That meant different measures were required
Because poorer areas work differently than richer ones, poor countries worked differently.
It was harder to stop the virus, but the cost was much higher. That meant different measures were required
4. Not Understanding that Rapid Tests Were a Game Changer
@michaelmina_lab said it early. If we had paid attention, we would have stopped this thing months ago.
Rapid tests deployed massively would have stopped the pandemic combined with proper isolations, without other measures
@michaelmina_lab said it early. If we had paid attention, we would have stopped this thing months ago.
Rapid tests deployed massively would have stopped the pandemic combined with proper isolations, without other measures
3. Vaccine Management
From IP mgmt to know-how transfer to production ramp-ups before they were needed... Crazy that we didn't do that well the moment Western countries realized they were too lazy to solve the pandemic with other measures
From IP mgmt to know-how transfer to production ramp-ups before they were needed... Crazy that we didn't do that well the moment Western countries realized they were too lazy to solve the pandemic with other measures
2. Failing at Test-Trace-Isolate
1. Not Learning Fast Enough
This summarizes all the rest. We knew most of these things by April 2020. How is it possible a schmuck like me wrote about most of them, yet powerful nation-states couldn't incorporate that information?
This summarizes all the rest. We knew most of these things by April 2020. How is it possible a schmuck like me wrote about most of them, yet powerful nation-states couldn't incorporate that information?
I go into the detail of all these measures in my last article
unchartedterritories.substack.com/p/top-24-covid…
unchartedterritories.substack.com/p/top-24-covid…
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