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26 May, 4 tweets, 6 min read
@INArteCarloDoss @funwithnumberz @OpenOutcrier @DW3p4c @TheMarketDog @acpandy It’s telling to go back & look at filings from 2015-2018. ARK was generating sub-$1 MILLION in fee revenue across their ETFs for the 1st 3 yrs of existence. FY18 was first “big” fee rev yr, and the 4 active ETFs only brought in $8m. That is literally nothing. You cannot...
@INArteCarloDoss @funwithnumberz @OpenOutcrier @DW3p4c @TheMarketDog @acpandy ...run a legitimate fundamental actively managed group of funds on that kind of revenue (or lack thereof). You wind up with insanely poor, inexperienced talent bc you can’t pay anyone a real bonus...but they did this for 4+ years. Fee revenue this year (Fy21) will likely...
@INArteCarloDoss @funwithnumberz @OpenOutcrier @DW3p4c @TheMarketDog @acpandy ...eclipse $250 million from their 6 active ETFs alone. That’s obv an enormous number, comparable to a mature/blue chip HF. But the core of the staff is largely the same as it was 3-4 yrs ago when they were making literally no money. I’ve started to write about this in the...
@INArteCarloDoss @funwithnumberz @OpenOutcrier @DW3p4c @TheMarketDog @acpandy ...past but stopped bc it will come across sounding hyper critical when it’s not, it’s just factual - the origin story of ARK just isn’t what I think everyone believes it to be...idk maybe I should do a thread on it...

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More from @ttp_cap

14 May
THREAD: ARK Update - How the Reflexivity Trade Works in Reverse. As ARK ETFs are ripping off the lows today, here's an update on how things have gone over the last few weeks. The first chart is the state of inflows/redemptions for the 6active ARK ETFs on a 5day/21d rolling basis:
2/As you can see, this is the worst it has ever been on a 21-day basis, having eclipsed $3billion in redemptions thru yesterday. Still, it's tip of the iceberg kind of stuff relative to the peak we saw in inflows late-2020/early'21...
3/Next chart shows this more clearly - this is annual cumulative inflows into ARK active ETFs for 2020 and 2021 ytd. As you can see from the chart, cumulative inflows peaked at just ~$18bn, but ARK is still sitting on >$14bn of inflows YTD, which is remarkable. Here's the chart:
Read 23 tweets
6 May
THREAD: one thing I struggle w/re: ARK is whether what happened yesterday w/ $NVTA is just a defect of the actively managed ETF model (at their size) or something more sinister. Let's use the NVTA situation yesterday as an example, bc there 2 explanations for what's going on...
2/The first explanation is: $NVTA is a large holding, they love the fundamentals, etc etc, the stock is down big on earnings/$400m share placement headline, and they want to add to your position. Fine, makes sense. The problem is, if they're buying 1.2m shares...
3/...of a stock that trades 3.5m ADV. So you're going to be a huge % of the volume, even on a big volume day like yesterday where it traded 5m shares (per FactSet). So you wind up being 24% of advertised volume, which is a sht ton as anyone who's ever traded size knows.
Read 14 tweets
28 Apr
THREAD - MOAR ARK: @EricBalchunas recently noted $PATH now shows up as being owned across ALL 6 ARK active ETFs:


This brings up a v important topic that I only touched on briefly in prior threads re: ARK ETF Position Overlap/Correlation. Let's dig in...
2/Buried deep in the last super long thread were 2 correlation tables showing ARK active ETFs from Jan'20 and Dec'20 thru this year:

Long story short: ARKK/G/F/Q/W are all highly correlated, esp in recent months post-massive '20 inflows/AUM explosion...
3/In that thread I also noted 35-45% position overlap across those ETFs. I was referring ONLY to the Avg overlap b/w 1 active ETF and any other. The real position overlap across ALL ARK Active ETFs is in fact way higher - OVER 70%. It's this point that I want to dive into here...
Read 55 tweets
21 Apr
1 MORE THREAD: There are several more angles you cld attack here re: $ARK & the Brett Winton "scam" quote from my other thread. 1 very basic thing is to look at what is going on w/recent trading as @DougKass has recently pointed out, esp now given their massive AUM...
2/The 1st place I'd look is $PRNT, ARK's own 3D Printing ETF. I haven't included $PRNT in any of my analysis bc even tho ARK manages this ETF, it's not active (ie it's passively managed based on a 3rd party 3D Printing Index). ARK charges 66bps in fees for the ETF per their site.
3/As everyone knows they just launched $ARKX, their new actively managed "Space Exploration" ETF. The top 2 stocks in the portfolio are $TRMB (more on this one in another thread) and, low and behold, $PRNT, which has been a 6% position in $ARKX since launch...
Read 7 tweets
20 Apr
LONG THREAD: my last thread started out as a discussion about gaining an edge in fundamental investing by better understanding a given company's business strategy...and ended up dissecting #ARK specifically. Let's face it, ARK is fascinating. So sit back & let's dig in some more.
2/This is super duper long but I promise there's some good data if you stick around to the end. In the prior thread I left out what was maybe the most startling quote from @tracyalloway & @TheStalwart 's Odd Lots Feb podcast w/ARK's Head of Research Brett Winton. Here it is:
3/Wow. That quote reminds me of another skill that all great fundamental investors have: the ability to parse thru reams of corporate speak, PR, and marketing BS to be able to find the few truly important statements by the management team that matter in understanding a business.
Read 70 tweets
9 Apr
Thread: I just went back to @TheStalwart & @tracyalloway 's "Odd Lots" podcast w/ARK Head of Research Brett Winton from Feb. All of their pods are great, but this interview was especially interesting in light of the stir ARK caused w/their last $TSLA report/price target in March
2/During the course of the interview, they got into a discussion about how ARK hires new analysts and how they train them to make modeling assumptions. Winton's commentary here was particularly enlightening re: the heart of why ARK is often so controversial.
3/In particular, Winton talked about how ARK tends to not hire traditional Wall Street types, and he explained various reasons why. One of them stood out. I think the commentary speaks volumes, so I'll just post the most salient quotes here: Image
Read 31 tweets

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