RBI balance sheet: 4 lakh crores added this year to 57 lakh crores (this is around 25% of money supply - quite large) They pay 99,000 cr. mostly because they didn't need to make provisions.

Quick thread on the RBI accounts.
Income from interest came down to 69,000 cr. from 109000 cr. Due to two things: lower rates (on indian and foreign bonds) and banks having to get paid for reverse repo.
RBI didn't generate as much profit selling dollars as I had thought. Only 50,000 cr. versus 30,000 cr. last year. Overall, income fell from 1.49 lakh cr. to 1.33 lakh cr.
RBI owns 40 lakh cr. (!) of dollars, with only 13 lakh cr. for Indian government bonds. Still more than 3x higher in forex, so this "worry" about selling forex is largely blah.
Amazingly, unclaimed bank deposits in India has reached 39,000 cr. adding 6,000 cr. more in the last one year. So many people haven't operated accounts for 10 years or more - just saw a 6,000 cr. addition this year!
Thankfully, revaluation reserves are down to 9 lakh crores from 11 lakh crores. Some due to rupee appreciation, some due to bond prices falling longer term.

Contingency reserves are up 20,000 cr. to 284,000 cr.

The reserves add up to 12 lakh crores, about 21% of balance sheet.
Notes printed: We printed about 2,00,000 cr. of rupee notes last year. Amazing because I thought digital got bigger so people would use less cash.
RBI continues to buy gold (34 tons more) and keep it stored abroad (WHY!!!)

We should bring it back to India and store locally. This is only for ultimate contingencies, when you need it with you. Keeping in Fort Knox is a BAD IDEA.
RBI has cut employee expenses by half, largely because it's a nine month period, and there was less to put in gratuity/PF. Will go back up next year.

Oh and too much provisions. We have so much that we've never used even in a crisis; cos RBI expands Balance sheet in a crisis.
That's about it. Please comment on whether this deserves a post. I'm very clinical about this, so frivolous comments - unless you have very good jokes - will get a royal ignore.
Oh yes, and I must plug this post each time: capitalmind.in/2020/04/how-th…

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More from @deepakshenoy

25 May
The RBI dividend is smaller than I thought, but it's good. The RBI is overcapitalized, it knows it, and I've pleaded for making accounting profits off the massive FX hoard for ages, and I'm super glad the RBI did some.

Forex markets are okay. 72.77 USDINR, near 2021 lows.
Also, there has been no REAL RBI selling. RBI bought, and then did a sell-buy swap. So the $580 billion is actually around $660 bn if you consider that they own $80bn forwards.
See how much the RBI bought this year - it's 50% more than any other year, if you include that whopping huge Forex forward exposure they own.
Read 8 tweets
23 May
Wonderful thread, and I'll add a little of what I know. Uber and Ola allowed anyone to become a taxi driver. The medallions in New York were given to a few people only, so the price of it was absolutely huge. Uber ensured anyone could drive. But there's a catch.
You couldn't "flag down" an Uber. A car couldn't put a sign saying "we're available" - and you just get in. Because that activity was licensed. And licenses were limited.

The answer was the app; book on the app, and Uber finds a cab hanging around close to you.
This was skirting of a regulation and suddenly allowed anyone to offer taxi services. In anticipation, people would drive to high-demand locations in order to service the location. Traffic would actually INCREASE, because supply had to be greater than demand.
Read 9 tweets
15 May
Do you have credit card debt that you don't pay back in full every month?
If you voted Yes for the above: Do you know right now, that every single purchase from day 1 of purchase, attracts interest at 3%+ per month?
Snapshot at 2:30pm: Appears that many people who "revolve" are not aware of this massive dirty behaviour by card companies. I will elaborate on this thread:
Read 10 tweets
11 May
Groww buys Indiabulls MF - for a 100 cr. in cash+75 cr. in I-Don't-Know-What. This is getting really interesting!
This is likely to take time, because SEBI will go through similar process to approve a buyer as it will for a sponsor of a mutual fund. It's however a good thing. We need to get new faces. (Disclosure: Capitalmind has applied too)
Note: These figures quoted like 27% of AUM etc. are pure bullshit. Indiabulls is just about getting its money back. It has invested Rs. 170 cr. in the AMC.
Read 6 tweets
5 May
The RBI policy was not much of a change today. They said banks can restructure MSME and individual loans. This just means evergreening, because banks are simply NOT reducing rates even for stressed borrowers.
If you're in trouble, banks can now say okay we'll stretch your loan for longer time. This also they don't do unless you actually default. Then, they don't cut the interest rate - even if their own borrowing costs are down.
You actually want more banks to come in now. Who don't have the legacy and who'll take over the market by offering lower rates, starting with good borrowers. So to fight, everyone will have to cut rates. You need the competition now, can't be a diktat.
Read 5 tweets
4 May
Retail individual investors are the biggest player in our markets. Not FIIs, and not mutual funds. Look at the equity market (non derivative). (Thread)
45% of India's stock market volumes are from retail investors. Up from 33% in 2016.

FIIs went from 23% down to 11%. Domestic institutions at 7%.

And look at the index futures market:
Individuals do 39% of index futures. FIIs merely 15%.
Domestic institutions are 1% - Rest is mostly prop books of brokers.

In index options, prop books dominate at 39%, but retail's gone up from 22% to 32%. FIIs only 16%.
Read 10 tweets

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