Thread by @AMSalamone

The new SNP-Green non-coalition cooperation negotiations are an interesting evolution in Scottish politics. Their eventual outcome remains to be seen, but plenty to ponder. A thread. #SP21 heraldscotland.com/news/19332430.…

At first glance, this model could suit the SNP more than the Greens. In a coalition, the Greens might have greater influence than their numbers. On an ad-hoc basis, the Greens might also have significant leverage. By contrast, a cooperation deal could moderate that influence

While details of an actual deal would be needed, the SNP would secure majority support on particular policies (and perhaps confidence and supply?). The Greens would get more say in shaping those agreed policies, and potentially one or more (junior?) ministerial posts

This cooperation model would be unusual in Europe. Presumably, the Greens would want to ensure that, in exchange for forgoing a coalition and giving up their issue-by-issue leverage, they would secure sufficient policy gains in the deal outright and post-deal policy influence

Since I have been asked: the EU will not be much interested in whether the Scottish government is SNP, SNP-Green or SNP*with Green cooperation. This issue will have no discernible impact on Scotland's European relations or the outlook for Scottish EU membership under independence

The EU institutions and member states have many preoccupations. Moreover, Green parties are coalition partners in some EU governments because they have performed sufficiently well in elections and struck coalition deals – not because it is fashionable to have Greens in government

In any case, the SNP (via the European Free Alliance) and Scottish Greens (via the European Greens) are already part of the same wider European political family. The European Greens and EFA are separate parties, but form the Greens/EFA group in the European Parliament

#COP26 is an important opportunity for Glasgow and Scotland. If a cooperation agreement is reached, I am sure it will be part of the deal's political framing. Nevertheless, too much emphasis shouldn't be placed on the COP, for coalition or cooperation

https://twitter.com/AMSalamone/status/1387327983317311491

A cooperation deal wouldn't notably change the dynamics of agreeing #indyref2 with the UK government. The main arguments for #indyref2 are still a pro-referendum parliamentary majority (which exists) or majority government (which doesn't). A hybrid cooperation plan doesn't fit in

Wider questions: How would both parties approve a deal – ballot their members or rely on party executives? Would the deal cover the whole term? If #indyref2 happened by 2023, elections for the post-independence Parliament could be held before 2026 anyway – bit.ly/3nD9O3f