More from @Dr_D_Robertson

Dr Duncan Robertson

@Dr_D_Robertson

27 May

PHE have published their data for Variants of Concern to 26 May2021

- B.1.617.2 is becoming dominant with 3,535 new cases
- But also increases in these variants of concern
P1 (+21)
B.1.351 (+32)
- New variant under investigation C.36.3 (+109)

cumulative chart excl B.1.1.7

Cumulative chart excluding B.1.1.7 and B.1.617.2

Over 900 cumulative cases of B.1.351 (South Africa)

Cumulative chart on an exponential chart

Read 14 tweets

Dr Duncan Robertson

@Dr_D_Robertson

25 May

The areas with extra guidance to avoid non-essential travel doesn't make a lot of sense.

A short thread.

Let's look at the list published on Friday.

Here are the areas which have new guidance to avoid non-essential travel to/from these areas.

gov.uk/guidance/covid…

@sangerinstitute

Let's see where they are on the list of B.1.617.2 cases using the latest data from @sangerinstitute

For this, I am *only using the number of sequences in the latest week, week ending 15 May 2021*
covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw

Read 9 tweets

Dr Duncan Robertson

@Dr_D_Robertson

23 May

What I think happened with the announcement of new data of the AZ/Pfizer effectiveness against B.1.617.2:

- a press release was issued earlier in the day on Saturday which prompted positive headlines in today's papers

"It's really good", as #Marr has just said

(a quick thread)

This I assume is the press release gov.uk/government/new…

This news was I believe embargoed until 10:30pm yesterday. Note that the press release *does* contain a link to a full preprint of the data.

khub.net/documents/1359…

Read 7 tweets

Dr Duncan Robertson

@Dr_D_Robertson

20 May

Public Health England have published their data for Variants of Concern.

- B.1.617.2 is becoming dominant with 2,111 new cases
- But also increases in these variants of concern
P1 (+30)
B.1.351 (+41)
- New variant under investigation AV.1

nb cumulative chart

... thread

Here is the cumulative chart on a log scale

And here is a heatmap of cases per week excluding colouring the B.1.1.7 ('Kent') variant

Read 9 tweets

Dr Duncan Robertson

@Dr_D_Robertson

20 May

10% of cases reported today were detected in Bolton

@PHE_uk

(There is surge testing in Bolton, which may explain part of this.)

But cases are very high there with high case rates in children with a bit of a gap then up to 40-44 year olds. (This *could* indicate household transmission between children and their parents.) Fig: @PHE_uk