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Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
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27 May, 4 tweets, 1 min read
From PHE surveillance report
Antibodies showing up nicely in the 40-somethings
As well as older age groups
More analysis here

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More from @Dr_D_Robertson

Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
27 May
PHE have published their data for Variants of Concern to 26 May2021

- B.1.617.2 is becoming dominant with 3,535 new cases
- But also increases in these variants of concern
P1 (+21)
B.1.351 (+32)
- New variant under investigation C.36.3 (+109)

cumulative chart excl B.1.1.7 Image
Cumulative chart excluding B.1.1.7 and B.1.617.2

Over 900 cumulative cases of B.1.351 (South Africa) Image
Cumulative chart on an exponential chart Image
Read 14 tweets
Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
25 May
The areas with extra guidance to avoid non-essential travel doesn't make a lot of sense.

A short thread.
Let's look at the list published on Friday.

Here are the areas which have new guidance to avoid non-essential travel to/from these areas.

gov.uk/guidance/covid…
Let's see where they are on the list of B.1.617.2 cases using the latest data from @sangerinstitute

For this, I am *only using the number of sequences in the latest week, week ending 15 May 2021*
covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
Read 9 tweets
Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
23 May
What I think happened with the announcement of new data of the AZ/Pfizer effectiveness against B.1.617.2:

- a press release was issued earlier in the day on Saturday which prompted positive headlines in today's papers

"It's really good", as #Marr has just said

(a quick thread)
This I assume is the press release gov.uk/government/new…
This news was I believe embargoed until 10:30pm yesterday. Note that the press release *does* contain a link to a full preprint of the data.

khub.net/documents/1359…
Read 7 tweets
Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
20 May
Public Health England have published their data for Variants of Concern.

- B.1.617.2 is becoming dominant with 2,111 new cases
- But also increases in these variants of concern
P1 (+30)
B.1.351 (+41)
- New variant under investigation AV.1

nb cumulative chart

... thread
Here is the cumulative chart on a log scale
And here is a heatmap of cases per week excluding colouring the B.1.1.7 ('Kent') variant
Read 9 tweets
Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
20 May
10% of cases reported today were detected in Bolton
(There is surge testing in Bolton, which may explain part of this.)

But cases are very high there with high case rates in children with a bit of a gap then up to 40-44 year olds. (This *could* indicate household transmission between children and their parents.) Fig: @PHE_uk
Increases in cases are not just confined to the under-60s (Fig: PHE dashboard) although the rate of increase is lower in the over-60s.
Read 12 tweets
Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
20 May
20 incidents/outbreaks in care homes last week - although some signs that these produce fewer hospitalizations. Let's hope that continues.
5 incidents/outbreaks in hospitals last week.
Read 11 tweets

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