Statement by President Joe Biden on the Investigation into the Origins of COVID-19 whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/…
I get what is meant here, but on this topic precise language matters

"whether it emerged from human contact with an infected animal or from a laboratory accident"

As written, these are not mutually exclusive
Biden already has a IC report
Why a new one?
Why now?
"shortly after I became President, in March, I had my National Security Advisor task the Intelligence Community to prepare a report on their most up-to-date analysis of the origins of COVID-19"

Some thoughts...
Possibility 1
There is new information
Perhaps the IC has obtained info we don't have that is cause for reopening the analysis
Perhaps DRASTIC & the media have provided this info
Regardless, given the sensitivities the issue wouldn't be reopened for no reason at all
Possibility 2
Big bluff
There is no new information but Biden Admin wants China to think that there is
The 90 days thus provides a deadline for China to figure how to play this
If there was a lab leak & China thinks the US knows that, then there is a window for spinning a tale
Possibility 3
Pure politics
There is no new information & the US doesn't much believe there was a lab leak
But Biden Admin thinks that there is political value in amping up pressure on China as part of a broader geopolitical conflict
Possibility 4
Complicity
The Biden Admin realizes that if there was a lab leak, then there would be potential USG complicity in the form of research funding, collaboration or lack of oversight
Thus the administration is working to get out ahead of this & control a narrative
Possibility 5
Smoke 'em out
Perhaps there is strong circumstantial evidence of a lab leak
If so that might implicate US & Chinese researchers and officials in a possible cover up
A new IC analysis might motivate a whistleblower to come clean to the USG out of fear
There are surely other possibilities
But one thing is clear
Something has changed in the views at the highest levels of the USG and this is very significant as US president's don't go chasing shadows (at least not so publicly)

Watch this space

/END

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More from @RogerPielkeJr

25 May
“counter-opinion masquerading as fact checking”

Very good look at “fact checking” by @JohnTierneyNYC
I documented the clear use of flawed information by “Climate Feedback” to censor views apparently accurate but I welcomed
⤵️
MIT’s Emanuel has a fine academic record but he also states that his extreme views on disaster contradict the IPCC consensus

By selecting him as a “fact checker” to censor others, Facebook is able to stealthily counter the IPCC consensus while still invoking “facts”

Clever!
Read 15 tweets
23 May
Pielke Jr., R. 2000. Policy Responses to El Niño 1997-1998: Implications for Forecast Value and the Future of Climate Services. In S. Changnon (Ed), 2000. El Niño, 1997-1998: The Climate Event of the Century, Oxford University Press.
oxford.universitypressscholarship.com/view/10.1093/o… Image
An analysis of policy responses to climate forecasts associated w/ 97/98 El Nino in US & argued that the relationship of forecast skill and societal value of the forecast is highly complex, the former did not dictate the latter

Pre-pub version free here:
sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/admin/publicat… Image
Using the framework of this 2000 paper:
One day, soon likely, there will be a debate over skill vs value associated with the RCPs

The wrongness of RCP8.5 is inevitable to be recognized

The debate will then shift to whether its wrongness contributed to value in policy advocacy
Read 5 tweets
20 May
Why is RCP8.5 as BAU here to stay?

"Climate intelligence" ➡️Here's 40 billion reasons
tmcnet.com/usubmit/2021/0… ImageImage
What a world we live in
doi.org/10.1016/j.erss… Image
I just Goggled climate intelligence & consultant
This came up

You can make >$300k playing around with pretend worlds of RCPs and SSPs ImageImage
Read 4 tweets
15 May
Deposition in Mann vs. CEI/National Review rogerpielkejr.com/2021/05/15/dep…
In it I discuss Climategate, The Hockey Stick, Grijalva, 538, IPCC, Mann's years of attacks on me and others & the differences between fraud as a catch-all colloquialism and the formal definition of research misconduct in science . . .
An excerpt . . .
Read 4 tweets
14 May
It is inside baseball⚾️
But who know will know

For those following interminable saga of Mann v CEI
Some remarkable new documents online
1-Oreskes deposition: dropbox.com/s/xwn9vv8qbrhs…
2-Steyn memo: steynonline.com/documents/1111…
3- Steyn uncontested facts: steynonline.com/documents/1097…
Oreskes provides an incredible look at the intolerance expressed towards anyone with a divergent view to Mann

It also give a disturbing peek at the array of people and organizations working behind the scene to delegitmize those with such views

UCS was running PR for Mann
These are incredible passages from the Steyn docs
They jibe with my personal experience ImageImage
Read 4 tweets
13 May
Pennsylvania state climate assessment just published
Relies centrally on RCP8.5 as BAU
Prepared by yet another "climate consultancy" that trades in RCP8.5 analyses
penncapital-star.com/energy-environ…
The PA report also confuses growth in wealth with climate trends, using the widely misused "billion dollar disaster" metric of @NOAA
I have no idea how much public money across the US is being spend on "climate consultants" to produce dodgy reports based on RCP8.5 and billion$ disasters, but it has to be an awful lot ... It's like spending public health money on homeopathy instead of vaccines
Read 6 tweets

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