1/ This is unreal. The study title is "Same-day SARS-CoV-2 antigen test screening in an indoor mass-gathering live music event: a randomised controlled trial." It is being cited as evidence that rapid antigen tests can make social events safe. But there are a couple problems...
2/ They gave rapid tests to over 1000 people and randomly divided those who tested negative into two groups. One went to a concert, where they were encouraged to dance and sing, and the others stayed home. I encourage you to read the entire abstract in the 2 pictures below.
3/ Results: None who went to the concert tested positive for Covid eight days later, but two of those who stayed home tested positive. Yay for rapid tests, right? Not exactly.
4/ You see, when they screened study participants with rapid antigen tests before the concert, NONE tested positive. That is to say, the rapid tests had ZERO effect on the results here.
5/ One would think this would merit a mention in the abstract, but the study authors apparently didn't think so. The study title indicates it's an RCT of rapid test screening for an indoor concert, yet there's no mention in the abstract that the rapid tests were irrelevant.
6/ Perhaps even more astonishing, nowhere in the discussion section of the paper do they mention that none of the rapid antigen tests were positive and that therefore no one was screened out of participating in the concert. Instead, they sing the praises of rapid tests.
7/ The authors do not let a little thing like the total irrelevance of the rapid antigen tests to the study's results prevent them from concluding their study provides evidence of the effectiveness of rapid tests as screening tools for indoor social events. You can't make it up.
8/ Though not mentioned in the study abstract, we are eventually told that concert attendees were required to wear an N95 mask at all times, except when drinking. I'm 100% for wearing N95 masks, but this is not likely to ever be adapted as policy in the real world.
9/ The ventilation was also extraordinarily good at the concert, maintaining CO2 at or below 800 ppm, much lower than the typical school classroom.
10/ In other words, the study was designed to give a result indicating the effectiveness of rapid antigen tests, & despite its failure to provide that result, the authors manage to come to the conclusion they wanted anyway.
11/ I should add that I'm open to the possibility that rapid antigen tests could be effective in preventing Covid transmission. But this study is a joke. It's disturbing that it was published by the Lancet & is apparently being taken seriously by prominent experts.
Addendum/ This study was funded by the events company Primavera Sound Group and YoMeCorono, which I know nothing about, but which appears to be funded by dozens of (mostly) Spanish corporations. yomecorono.com/en/empresas-qu…

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More from @LongDesertTrain

26 May
1/5 Phenomenal thread here on the noxious effects of competitive grading on education, even on those who appear to benefit the most from such a system.
2/5 Difficulty lies in

1. Convincing enough people competitive grading is harmful &

2. Transforming our education system into one that "meets students where they are, helps them build their interests & skills, teaches them they ARE valuable by being."
3/5 In Finland, "hustle culture" scorned & competition in academics minimized from the very beginning. How did Finland create such a healthy, non-competitive culture? It's certainly worth looking into.
Read 5 tweets
26 May
1/7 Satan is trending on Twitter. I recall what Mark Twain said about him.
"I am quite sure that I have no race prejudices, and I think I have no color prejudices nor caste prejudices nor creed prejudices. Indeed, I know it..."
2/7 "I can stand any society. All that I care to know is that a man is a human being—that is enough for me; he can't be any worse."
3/7 "I have no special regard for Satan; but I can at least claim that I have no prejudice against him. It may even be that I lean a little his way, on account of his not having a fair show."
Read 7 tweets
22 Apr
1/ The @nytimes has a good interactive story on the safety of flying during the pandemic, but they didn’t discuss boarding & deboarding. Judging by CO2 readings I saw on recent flights, this is the most dangerous part of flying. #covidco2 #COVIDisairborne
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
2/ By now there is overwhelming evidence #COVIDisAirborne. It’s transmitted mainly by shared air, i.e. inhaling the air others have exhaled, which contain aerosols—tiny, liquid particles that float suspended in air for seconds to hours, depending on size.
3/ There’s no easy way to measure virus levels in the air, but CO2 is a good proxy measure of risk. Outdoor CO2 levels are ~410 ppm, but since we exhale CO2, indoor concentrations are higher. The higher the CO2 level, the more air you’re sharing.
Read 17 tweets
17 Apr
Still quite a bit of uncertainty about this new Indian variant, but this much at least seems clear: as transmission continues unabated, allowing the virus limitless opportunities to mutate, the variants emerging dominant are invariably worse, not better, than what came before.
As B.1.1.7 spread and became dominant in country after country, it eventually became clear that it was not only more contagious but also ~60-70% more deadly than older variants.
When B.1.351 (the S. African variant) was studied, it was found to evade neutralizing antibodies from the serum of both vaccinated & previously infected individuals & seemed to infect previously infected people as easily as those never previously infected. fda.gov/media/144245/d…
Read 8 tweets
7 Apr
Facebook censorship is out of control. In the past 10 days I've had 4 comments removed for "violating community standards." All were Covid related, & I have no idea why they were suppressed. Perhaps someone here can figure it out. Here's a censored comment from yesterday. Image
The comment above was (I think) on the superb Hoosier Covid Update page, run by the estimable & amiable @gbosslet. The two below were on a friend's page, which was not public but only viewable to his friends. They were supposedly flagged as spam, though I cannot fathom why. ImageImage
This last one I tried posting three times, only to find it disappear almost immediately each time. This was on the excellent Public Health Is Your Health Too page (follow!), run by @EpiRNActivist. In addition to the text, one of @MicahPollak's superb graphs was attached. Image
Read 7 tweets
29 Dec 20
1/ So I found out this garbage meta-analysis is apparently being shared all over the place. I decided to take a look at the studies they cited as evidence that asymptomatic and presymptomatic spread are marginal. What I found was shocking to say the least.
2/ They only included four studies that analyzed asymptomatic or presymptomatic transmission. One of the four studies was based on 8 cases and their 23 contacts. Four cases were presymptomatic and four asymptomatic. One of their 23 contacts was infected.
3/ The one case of transmission was from one of the four presymptomatic cases. They did not analyze any cases of symptomatic transmission. ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
Read 22 tweets

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