Various bankers & journalists have recently been very upbeat about the prospects for Britain's economic recovery:
"The British economy will be booming. It is not yet widely appreciated just how big this boom will be" - Andrew Neil.
My advice: don't believe the hype.
Last week the Bank of England said: "Economic growth in Britain this year should not be confused with a normal boom... economy shrank almost 10% last year, biggest slump in 300 years".
While the opinion polls show a 'vaccine bounce' for the Tories, again: don't believe the hype.
A fascinating new opinion poll by the respected Pew Research Center, discussed in the Financial Times, tells a fascinating story about how a clear majority in the US & Western Europe support large scale, systemic change.
"You might have thought that the development of vaccines and thus the prospect of an exit from fresh lockdowns would have sparked an upbeat mood... But it isn’t so."
Roughly two-thirds of respondents in France and exactly half of those in the US, UK & Germany said they wanted either a “major overhaul” or “complete reform” of economic structures.
Only a tiny minority – as low as 3% in France – said they backed the status quo.
Remember fewer than three in ten of the UK electorate voted for the @Conservatives in #GE2019, & despite what the right-wing press & broadcast channels keep telling us, people are far more concerned about inequality & the economy than 'the woke' - whatever it's supposed to mean.
The survey suggests that the British are even more eager than continental Europeans to see higher levels of government control & redistribution.
In fact, 67% of British people strongly support MORE regulation of business, whereas it is 53% in Germany & just 46% in the US.
British people desire a much more expansive role of the state: 62% deem it “very important” for the government to build more public housing, & 53% for it to increase benefits to the poor - higher than other countries. 50% want a universal basic income, much higher than elsewhere.
The fact that British voters are expressing higher levels of support for government regulation & redistribution than the French & Germans, might reflect the fact that in free-market-obsessed Britain, we have had much less of this than our peers on the continent in recent decades.
The survey implies we cannot assume that any economic rebound & return to “normal” will automatically lead to voters embracing the status quo: the poll is showing a bigger zeitgeist shift, partly driven by the pandemic but with deeper roots, which could reshape policy attitudes.
The FT's Gillian Tett speculates that the reason there is high demand for government intervention is that #COVID19 has not only exposed grotesque levels of #inequality, but has reminded people just how uncertain the future is.
Maybe "there is a search under way for protection".
Hilary Cottam, UCL: “The [post-pandemic] flourishing we want can’t be brought about by postwar institutions.”
Jenna Bednar, Michigan Uni: the social fabric has decayed so far that a complete overhaul of our institutions is needed to create a more collaborative, inclusive system.
The scramble to develop & distribute the vaccine has not only shown people that governments can – sometimes – do good things, including collaborating with the private sector, but that companies can sometimes work together too, instead of just competing.
If/when we eventually emerge from #COVID19, do not just look to the economic data; look to see if a subtler shift in the zeitgeist is also under way.
Returning to “normal” does not necessarily mean re-embracing the old systems.
Political & corporate elites should take note.
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Echoing objections to social-media fuelled violence from the government of the UK & others, the Chamber of Progress, a tech business advocacy group, is urging delusional adolescent billionaire Musk to take his leadership role at @X more seriously - or resign if he cannot do so.
Since July 29 when right-wing influencers made false claims on Twitter/@X & other social media platforms that falsely blamed the murder of three children on Muslims & asylum-seeking immigrants, dozens of far-right #FarageRiots erupted around the nation.
The #FarageRiots started with a lie – a fake name and false information that suggested the teenager alleged to have killed three young girls in #Southport was a Muslim asylum seeker. He was neither.
There is an uncomfortable hypocrisy at the heart of this story, which is that people didn’t react the same way when, earlier this year, a white man killed a 14-year-old black boy, Daniel Anjorin, with a sword.
While that perpetrator was treated as a horrific anomaly, the Southport attacker was viewed by racist rioters as representative of migrants & Muslims, despite being neither.
A psychologist explains the cognitive biases and psychological responses behind this disparate treatment.
Researchers have developed & articulated the concept of “everyday extremism” to acknowledge that extreme narratives derived from non-mainstream sources can become a part of mainstream political discourse via social media.
As usual, @elonmusk takes a half-truth, removes important context, then selectively presents a misleading claim implying something about contemporary society, in this case mobilising a 'white victimhood' racist dog whistle narrative to fuel anger, division, & engagement.
Musk presents the claim that the etymological origins of the word word slave derives solely from the exploitation of 'white people', rather than, say, emphasising how religious texts from Judaism, Islam & Christianity all recognise slaves as a separate class of people in society.
Before examining Musk's misleading claim, it's worth knowing that the word 'Slav' refers to a member of the most numerous ethnic & linguistic body of peoples in Europe, residing chiefly in eastern & southeastern Europe but extending also across northern Asia to the Pacific Ocean.
#NEW opinion poll: "73% of the British public say that the riots are shaming rather than standing up for Britain, & the public overwhelmingly believe that those helping clear up after the riots (87%) represent British values." - @Moreincommon_ 🇬🇧
Rather than attitudes to the riots sitting in two contrasting pro- & anti-riots camps, public opinion is akin to Russian Dolls: small groups are willing to condone the riots but much bigger groups with opinions cited as motivation for the violence condemn it without hesitation.
The smallest group are those who express support for the unrest: 7% of the public say they are ashamed Britain is a multi-ethnic country; 8% think violent demonstrations outside asylum seeker accommodation are acceptable; & the 11% who have a positive opinion of Tommy Robinson.