Personal income fell by 13% in April, a smaller fall than market expectations, as fewer economic impact payments went out than in March (which saw a large increase in personal income) 1/
Aggregate compensation (reflecting both number of employees and wages/benefits paid) again grew at 0.9 percent month-over-month, a strong pace. It rose further above its pre-pandemic high from last February. 2/
Nominal spending on goods decreased slightly, driven by nondurable goods, while spending on services continued to increase. The increased spending on services and decreased spending on goods likely reflects a reopening economy. 3/
Unemployment insurance payments fell in April as workers continued to come off of the program. 4/
Year-over-year, headline PCE inflation increased by 3.6%. Adjusting for base effects from depressed pandemic prices last spring, it increased by 2.4%. This index hit its pandemic nadir in April 2020. 5/
Core inflation, which removes volatile food and energy to make it easier to track the trend, rose by 3.1% year-over-year. Adjusted for base effects, it rose by 2.2%. About 60 percent of the acceleration was due to base effects. 6/
The rise in core inflation was driven by an increase in the price of durable goods, which rose by 1.4% month-over-month, up from 0.6% the month before. 7/
The price of nondurable goods rose by 0.3%, down from 0.8% the month before, and services held steady at 0.5% month-over-month. 8/
The fastest price rise in durable goods was price gains in motor vehicles and parts. 9/
Prices in pandemic-affected services (e.g. airfare) rose by 8% in April. Prices in those services remain 8% below their pre-pandemic level. 10/
Overall, this report is consistent with a strengthening labor market and an economy restarting from a pandemic. /end

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More from @WhiteHouseCEA

27 May
The second estimate of GDP for the first quarter was unchanged at 6.4% at an annualized rate. Before the pandemic, our economy had not seen quarterly growth at this rate since 2003. 1/
However, the level of real GDP remains below its pre-pandemic level, reminding us of how much more work there is to be done. 2/
While there were revisions to individual components, they were offsetting, leaving the headline growth rate unchanged. 3/
Read 7 tweets
13 May
For the past four decades, the view that lower taxes, less spending, and fewer regulations would generate stronger economic growth has exerted substantial influence on U.S. public policy. 1/
Over this period, the United States has underinvested in public goods such as infrastructure and innovation, and gains from growth have accrued disproportionately to the top of the income and wealth distribution 2/
Long-standing racial, ethnic, and gender disparities persist. In addition, while historic progress has been made in expanding health insurance, more remains to be done to provide adequate protection against economic risk. 3/
Read 15 tweets
12 May
Inflation increased at a 4.2% rate year-over-year last month and 0.8% month-over-month. Core inflation—without food/energy—rose 3.0% year-over-year and 0.9% month-over-month 1/
Part of this was due to base effects, reflecting the depressed prices from last spring. Controlling for base effects by smoothing across the 14 months since February 2020, the rate of core CPI inflation was 2.2%. 2/
Some of April’s price increase also reflects pandemic-induced supply chain pressures that are expected to be transitory. The sharp increase in used motor vehicle prices accounted for more than a third of the increase in the month-over-month index. 3/
Read 7 tweets
19 Apr
Usually when we see rising wages, the economy is growing. However, during the pandemic, composition and base effects make wage data harder to interpret 1/
In April 2020, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that year-over-year growth in average hourly earnings skyrocketed to about 8 percent—the highest observed since the series began in 2006. 2/
The sharp, one-month increase in reported average wages was because millions of relatively low-paid workers lost their jobs, while relatively high-paid workers remained employed. (composition effects) 3/
Read 27 tweets
12 Apr
In the next several months we expect measured inflation to increase somewhat, primarily due to three different temporary factors: base effects, supply chain disruptions, and pent-up demand, especially for services. 1/
We expect these three factors will likely be transitory, and that their impact should fade over time as the economy recovers from the pandemic. After that, the longer-term trajectory of inflation is in large part a function of inflationary expectations. 2/
Overall inflation, as defined by the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) deflator, fell during the pandemic, though there have been important differences between products and sectors 3/
Read 37 tweets
2 Apr
Today’s jobs report showed marked acceleration in March to the fastest pace since August of last year. The economy added 916,000 jobs in March, and job growth was revised up in both January and February.
Although there were 8.4 million fewer jobs in March than in February 2020, assuming the current pace of job growth holds, employment could be back to pre-pandemic levels around the end of this year.
In March, women’s employment losses finally narrowed to about the same decline as men have experienced.
Read 22 tweets

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