THREAD on BBIL’s saga of an incredibly spun yarn, based on its most recent release, today. 1. Starts with a treatise on vaccine making for the intellectually-challenged journalists - “complex and multifactorial process” with 100s of steps, it says.
2. Explains how the regulatory pathway is complex and takes time, effort, coordination with supply chains, etc. Generally, more fluff
3. Now comes to the real deal - that scaling production is a "step-by-step process". (BTW, what manufacturing process isn’t?). But here’s the innocently-couched punch: “There is a four-month lag time for COVAXIN to translate into actual vaccination.”
4. So, a batch takes 120 days, says BBIL. Batches initiated in March “will be ready for supply only during the month of June. Even a fresher in industry will tell you batch processing does not happen sequentially. If companies did that they would take eternity to make a product.
5. In reality, a source in the world of biologics tells me that batches go through steps like I an assembly line. While Batch 1 goes through step one and moves to Step 2, another batch moves to Step 1, and so on. This is not rocket science.
6. It is just manufacturing processes perfected over more than a 100 years. The source sited above tells me a that in a well-coordinated assembly line the gap between batches would not be more than a few days, perhaps a couple of weeks or so.
7. The rest of the release is just an attempt to transfer his burden to others (like CDSCO). The last para is just padding.
8. The crucial issue for Indians scrounging for that elusive Covaxin shot is this: BBIL appears to have serious issues scaling up capacity. But even milord importantly, it is unwilling to accept. Instead it is spinning tales based on mumbo jumbo.
9. But even more scandalous in this is the role of the entity that holds the IPR for Covaxin: the Govt. It has been - unwittingly or wickedly, it doesn’t really matter which — been happy to accept the wondrous tales spun by its client.
10. The statement by BBIL shows that the tail is wagging the dog. You can go figure who the tail is and the dog in this story is. (END)
THREAD - on how companies mislead, and the media obliges obediently or unwittingly — the case of the elusive Covaxin shot. 1. As vaccine shortages, especially of Covaxin, mount across the country, BBIL issued a release y’day announcing a 200 m dose/annum expansion in capacity.
2. The benefit of the expanded capacity will become available by “Q4 2021”, it said. Preposterously, BBIL claimed that its capacity volumes would now exceed 1 billion doses. Now that is a lot of vaccines.
3. In comparison, Oxford-AZ’s entire planned planned global doses (incl from SII) for 2021 is 2.1 billion doses. Pfizer-BioNTech’s capacity is 3 billion, of which only 2.96 m doses remain available for the rest of 2021.
THREAD
On why the argument that India ought to have vaccinated its "own" people before supplying other countries is misplaced for several reasons. First, the vaccine manufactured by SII is subject to conditions from original funders (not GoI), Covax, the multilateral facility.
2. These orders pre-date the GoI's orders both in time and qty. The Covax facility provided funding to AstraZeneca/SII conditional on supplies, so there are contractual obligations. It is another matter that the NaMo Govt tried use it to fly the Vishwaguru flag.
3. There is simply no way SII’s obligations could have been avoided. So far, about 180 million doses have been delivered in India; about 66 m doses have been exported. Significantly, this 1/3 ratio (roughly) may be the division of supplies between domestic and exports in future
THREAD 1. On Serum Institute of India, which is among the highest profit margins in India, among companies with a turnover of over Rs. 5,000 crores (h/t @AnilKSood5 )
SII’s operating margin (operating profit/turnover) has NEVER fallen below 50 per cent ever since fiscal 2012!
2. SII is not a very large company - its total sales (2020) was just a little less than Rs. 6,000 crores. In comparison Tata Steel’s turnover was 1.4 lakh crores! But what is striking is its strike rate — its profit/turnover ratio.
3. In fact its average net profit margin (net profit/turnover) in the last decade has been about 44 %. Now, having enjoyed that kind of normal profit, one can sympathise with Poonawala when says he would like to make super profits!
THREAD 1. Here is an example of an external agency providing damage limitation services to the NaMo regime, which is struggling to explain its disastrous vaccination policy. orfonline.org/expert-speak/n…
2. Essentially, it ticks all the right boxes by extolling the virtues of the “largest” vaccination drive without neither respect for facts on the ground nor for the scale of the task at the hand of the Govt.
3. Instead, it asks that public “expectations” of a quick and comprehensive rollout should be “managed” and “toned down”. Now, that sounds sinister, doesn’t it? Basically, it says universal rollout of the vaccine is off the table.
On why there is no light at the end of India's vaccine tunnel. 1. The affidavit filed by the Centre in the SC today states (h/t livelaw.com)
The Centre says that the current total monthly capacities of the three current vaccine suppliers is 85.03 m doses.
2. What does this imply for the ongoing vaccination drive?
Breaking capacities down to total daily doses enables enables comparison with what we need and where we stand. Daily capacities (million doses):
SII - 2.17 m
BBIL - 0.67 m
Sputnik - 0.01 m
Total - 2.85 m
3. Compare this to the vaccination rates in early April when the 7-day moving avg peaked at about 3.7 m doses per day. The shortfall NOW is about 25 %.
India's Vaccine Baron Adar Poonawala says SII's capacity will
⬆️ from 60-70 m/month to 100 m/month (3m/day) by July. India needs at least 7m/day to cover 18+ popn within 2021. This wide gap is what gives the monopoly scope for hiking prices. ft.com/content/017846…
Poonawala, shifty as always, now takes the risky route of blaming the NaMo Govt for taking "it easy" and for being being complacent. "There were no orders," he reveals and says that SII was not expected to produce more than 1 billion doses/yr. Clearly this fiasco is a JV.
Poonawala says the NaMo Govt only ordered for 21 m doses for delivery by Feb (about 7-10 days supply at current vaccination rates!). The next order, for 110m only came in March, when the wave was on the. verge of taking off.