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Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
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28 May, 19 tweets, 10 min read
📍BREAKING—Hospitalizations for #COVID19 has spiked up 72% in just 8 days, according to latest UK 🇬🇧 govt data. This follows a surge in #B16172 cases. Deaths have also begun to increase. UK is among the most vaccinated countries, with ~57% with at least 1 dose, and 35% fully.🧵
2) On a weekly cumulative basis, weekly hospitalizations has increased 25% versus the previous week.

Worrisome is that weekly deaths has increased 38% as well, according to SAGE member @GabrielScally, who is not very optimistic about the data.
3) Specifically, Dr Scally’s exact words were “not looking positive in #COVID19 unfortunately”.
4) To be clear, most of those hospitalized are among those not vaccinated. Vaccine does indeed work and important - albeit 60% efficacy for 2 doses of AstraZeneca vaccine against the new #B16172. 88% for the Pfizer vaccine against #B16172. But 2/3rd if vaccine are AZ in 🇬🇧
5) And only 2 have died so far from the #B16172 variant from India after full vaccination. But clearly B16172 is a menace.
telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/05/2…
6) Clarification - @GabrielScally is an @IndependentSage member not SAGE.
7) #B16172 is now becoming the newly dominant variant in the UK, replacing and outpacing even the previously faster reigning variant #B117 which was already 50% more contagious than original strain. B16172 is just that much more faster.
8) Reinfection still unclear… but based on the data so far, #B16172 has likely some more reinfection potential…
9) We can debate if one day hospitalization comparison is reliable or not, but you cannot deny hospitalization has increased 25% for this past week vs previous week. That 25% is irrefutable.
10) England’s CDC @PHE_uk has upgraded the warning and risk assessment for the #B16172 variant — its most certainly more contagious. And likely greater “reduced vaccine effectiveness”. See details below.
11) And the surge in cases during this new UK #b16172 epidemic is happening mostly in children.
12) Pediatric trend also seen in Singapore. Here is its Moh warning
13) here is what can happen next in UK 🇬🇧 in June and July. It depends on how transmissible #B16172 is and what govt leaders do.
14) here is some UK cities with sharp rises in hospitalizations… undeniable there is a hospitalization surge.
15) there is debate whether #B16172 is more severe in children or not. Indian doctors are reporting a trend. But unclear if it’s due to less hospital capacity spillover affecting care.
16) Meanwhile, what can happen when a country has multiple risky variants? Recombination of different variants to form a new one… like in Vietnam that is reporting a new variant combining both #B16172 and #B117… see thread 🧵 below.
15) UK leaders are letting history repeat again… if only they listened to the science and data. But no, reopening is coming soon amid the surge. Will Boris Johnson act?
17) One of UK’s leading epidemiologists is warning UK may be in serious trouble again with #COVID19.
18) Here was the warning from 6 days ago… yet little has been done since. And now hospitalizations and deaths rising nationwide. Why can’t political leaders act earlier? Ask for a few billion fellow humans.

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More from @DrEricDing

Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
30 May
200 cities—Tens of thousands of protesters poured on to the streets of Brazil’s largest cities to demand the impeachment of Jair Bolsonaro over his catastrophic response to the #COVID19 pandemic that has claimed nearly **half a million Brazilian lives** ✊🏼
theguardian.com/world/2021/may…
2) The demonstrators turned out in more than 200 cities and towns for what is the biggest anti-Bolsonaro mobilisation since Brazil’s Covid outbreak began.

“Today is a decisive milestone in the battle to defeat Bolsonaro’s genocidal administration,”
3) Osvaldo Bazani da Silva, a 48-year-old hairdresser who lost his younger brother to Covid-19, said: “We can’t lose any more Brazilian lives. We need to hit the streets every single day until this government falls.”
Read 10 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
30 May
NEW—Infections "growing exponentially", professor Sir Tim Gowers warned urging not to repeat the mistake of acting too late. Gowers argument against natural herd immunity helped trigger 🇬🇧‘s first 2020 lockdown says recent increase in #COVID19 "worries me"
news.sky.com/story/covid-19… Image
2) “They seem to be multiplying by a certain fraction each day - in other words, growing exponentially," he said.

"We're still at a reasonably low base but, on the other hand, we know that there's a lag.
3) "Even if we were to take serious action and more social distancing action, that growth would continue for a while until the effect of that action kicked in."
Read 5 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
29 May
Welp—“Vietnam has uncovered a new Covid-19 variant combining characteristics of the two existing variants first found in India🇮🇳(#B16172) & UK🇬🇧(#B117)” 🇻🇳 Health Minister said. “The new variant is very dangerous” and “spreads quickly by air”. #COVID19 🧵
straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/v… Image
2) here is the curve in Vietnam. It’s pretty sharp of an increase.
3) A “hybrid”—
“The new one is an Indian variant with mutations that originally belong to the UK variant,” Mr Long was quoted as saying, adding that authorities would soon announce the name and detailed characteristics of the newly discovered variant.
Read 15 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
29 May
📍600 prisoners currently jailed on a #COVID19-infected prison ship🚢 dubbed “Death trap on the East River”, where audio intercepts described chemical agents & “enhanced restraints” used daily. In April 2021, 5 prison units under COVID quarantine. HT @ava
2) The terrible conditions on the South Bronx prison ship. @TakeBackTheBX is organizing protests. @ava says @laurapoitras is investigating with #seanvegezzi, who are sharing the intercepted audio. ImageImage
3) the Vernon C. Bain Correctional Center is an infamous floating jail in the East River at edge of the South Bronx. Built in the 1990s to alleviate overcrowding at Rikers & can house 800 male inmates—many others go there when they can't afford to pay bail
wnyc.org/story/paying-b…
Read 4 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
28 May
3 million excess pandemic deaths in India 🇮🇳…

Let this sink in—the tragedy that continues to unfold in India has claimed a very large death toll of close to 3 million. While uncertainty surrounds these estimates, alternative methods suggest they are in the ballpark. #COVID19
2) Reality in 2021 is that #COVID19 is now a developing country pandemic. brookings.edu/blog/future-de…
3) Roughly 40,000 excess pandemic deaths a day worldwide. Insane. economist.com/briefing/2021/…
Read 4 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
28 May
Let’s call for a massive push to vaccinate 𝗮𝘁 𝗹𝗲𝗮𝘀𝘁:

📍10% of every country's population by September

📍30% by the end of 2021.

The @WHO is calling on #WHA74 to rally such goals.

“If any country is left behind, we are all held back”. ~@DrTedros
2) If wealthier vaccinated countries don’t help, this will continue to happen. Neglect of the developing world will lead to hurting the world continually.

This is why we must share vaccines and unite.
3) if we don’t share vaccines, then richer countries will still be hit. We are all connected. No country is invulnerable.
Read 4 tweets

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