NEW—Infections "growing exponentially", professor Sir Tim Gowers warned urging not to repeat the mistake of acting too late. Gowers argument against natural herd immunity helped trigger 🇬🇧‘s first 2020 lockdown says recent increase in #COVID19 "worries me"
news.sky.com/story/covid-19…
2) “They seem to be multiplying by a certain fraction each day - in other words, growing exponentially," he said.

"We're still at a reasonably low base but, on the other hand, we know that there's a lag.
3) "Even if we were to take serious action and more social distancing action, that growth would continue for a while until the effect of that action kicked in."
4) He is right. Not just cases, but hospitalizations and deaths both increasing again.
5) Because acting too late is what India 🇮🇳 did. don’t be like Modi. Likely over 1.5 million have died. Possibly even 3-4 million according to new analysis. See thread 🧵
6) Not good… today’s UK report shows hospitalizations and deaths continuing to rise, even on a weekend (usually a lull). Deaths up 42% in 7 days according to @JoePajak

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More from @DrEricDing

31 May
KIDS TRANSMIT, damnit.

All those who said— “Kids are practically immune; Kids are “already basically a vaccinated adult”—are dead wrong.

Kids are just as likely to transmit as adults and daycare staff, even the youngest kids, with #B117 variant. Pretty solid study ⬇️. #COVID19
2) Another strong study of 3 million people in Denmark found that the more kids in a household, the higher the risk of #COVID19 in adults. And the trend seems clearly a linear trend for more kids, more risk. Another study supporting kids transmission.
3) And like the study described above by @DrZoeHyde, the Danish study found both older kids and young kids increasing risks similarly.
Read 4 tweets
31 May
💡8 BILLION DOSES IN ONE YEAR—it is possible! Here is how to globally produce over 8 billion mRNA #COVID19 vaccine doses by May 2022–enough to cover 80% of 🌍—for $36.6 billion.

➡️8 bil doses for just $4.58 per dose 👀

@Maybarduk @ZoltanKis85 @zainrizvi citizen.org/article/how-to… Image
2) “First, we describe the production process for mRNA vaccines, noting in particular the significant advantages of cell-free production. Crucially, mRNA production facilities can be smaller, cheaper, and faster to establish….”
3) “Many more manufacturing facilities can also be retrofitted to produce mRNA vaccines, compared to other kinds of vaccines, given both the small scale and “closed” nature of the process.
Read 6 tweets
31 May
📍3rd WAVE “HAS BEGUN”—UK 🇬🇧 might scrap lifting #COVID19 restrictions for June, as a senior government adviser said the country was in the early stages of a third wave amid “exponential growth” in #B16172 variant accounting for 3/4 of cases.
theguardian.com/world/2021/may…
2) “Prof Ravi Gupta, a member of the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag), told BBC Radio 4’s Today there had been “exponential growth” in #B16172.

Asked if the third wave had begun, Gupta replied: “Yes.”
3) “He added: “Of course, the numbers of cases are relatively low at the moment – all waves start with low numbers of cases that grumble in the background and then become explosive – so the key here is that what we are seeing here is the signs of an early wave.
Read 7 tweets
30 May
200 cities—Tens of thousands of protesters poured on to the streets of Brazil’s largest cities to demand the impeachment of Jair Bolsonaro over his catastrophic response to the #COVID19 pandemic that has claimed nearly **half a million Brazilian lives** ✊🏼
theguardian.com/world/2021/may…
2) The demonstrators turned out in more than 200 cities and towns for what is the biggest anti-Bolsonaro mobilisation since Brazil’s Covid outbreak began.

“Today is a decisive milestone in the battle to defeat Bolsonaro’s genocidal administration,”
3) Osvaldo Bazani da Silva, a 48-year-old hairdresser who lost his younger brother to Covid-19, said: “We can’t lose any more Brazilian lives. We need to hit the streets every single day until this government falls.”
Read 10 tweets
29 May
Welp—“Vietnam has uncovered a new Covid-19 variant combining characteristics of the two existing variants first found in India🇮🇳(#B16172) & UK🇬🇧(#B117)” 🇻🇳 Health Minister said. “The new variant is very dangerous” and “spreads quickly by air”. #COVID19 🧵
straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/v…
2) here is the curve in Vietnam. It’s pretty sharp of an increase.
3) A “hybrid”—
“The new one is an Indian variant with mutations that originally belong to the UK variant,” Mr Long was quoted as saying, adding that authorities would soon announce the name and detailed characteristics of the newly discovered variant.
Read 15 tweets
29 May
📍600 prisoners currently jailed on a #COVID19-infected prison ship🚢 dubbed “Death trap on the East River”, where audio intercepts described chemical agents & “enhanced restraints” used daily. In April 2021, 5 prison units under COVID quarantine. HT @ava
2) The terrible conditions on the South Bronx prison ship. @TakeBackTheBX is organizing protests. @ava says @laurapoitras is investigating with #seanvegezzi, who are sharing the intercepted audio.
3) the Vernon C. Bain Correctional Center is an infamous floating jail in the East River at edge of the South Bronx. Built in the 1990s to alleviate overcrowding at Rikers & can house 800 male inmates—many others go there when they can't afford to pay bail
wnyc.org/story/paying-b…
Read 4 tweets

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