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29 May, 5 tweets, 2 min read
Left parties in many countries have exchanged support from low-education voters for high-education voters since 1970, but without becoming parties of the rich; the right in many places has become a coalition of the rich & the uneducated

economist.com/graphic-detail…
The reversal of the educational cleavage in most countries is strongly linked to the emergence of a new sociocultural axis of political conflict & the rise of Green & anti-immigration politics

From a new version of
“Brahmin Left versus Merchant Right”
wid.world/document/brahm…
While the shift is global, the US stands out as moving from almost no left/right division on education & a large division on income in 1970 to a large division on education & almost no division on income by 2010 (by this measure)
The increasing education division between the left & right in rich democracies is being driven by larger splits in younger generations but also by changes over time within generations
wid.world/document/brahm…
The European trends look different if you separate out the mainstream left & right parties:

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More from @MattGrossmann

Matt Grossmann Profile picture
12 May
Long way to go, but more traditional NSF funding & DOE national lab funding have successfully attached themselves as solutions to today’s focus problem of Chinese technology competition; also, the distributed locations of national labs & grant-seeking universities still matter
Compared to other issue areas, significant science & tech policy changes involve more leadership from administrative agencies; but the policymaking network is sparsely connected with no core; there has long been high international but low public influence
amazon.com/Artists-Possib…
There is now a good chance that we'll more than double traditional NSF directorate funding (while creating a new directorate & funding national labs) under the guise of an anti-China technology competition bill

Senate bill now more closely tracks the House bill, but with more $
Read 4 tweets
Matt Grossmann Profile picture
11 May
Polled issue opinions are associated with ballot initiative outcomes but popular policies underperform; voters systematically prefer the "no" option
#polisciresearch
dropbox.com/s/zn2uf6kyv8id…
Great generalization of the research on how Washington's real-world campaigns reduced support for climate initiatives by 20 percentage points:

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
CW among consultants is that an initiative should start with 2/3 support in the polls to pass (with 50%), usually explained not just as status quo bias but responsiveness to negative information; eg, con spending on initiatives is more important than pro:
amazon.com/Populist-Parad…
Read 4 tweets
Matt Grossmann Profile picture
10 May
Democrats lost vote share among Latinos, from 71-29% in 2016 to 63-37% in two-way, but gained among white voters with a college degree, from 50-50 to 54-46% in 2020

New Catalyst estimates:

catalist.us/wh-national/
Turnout was up substantially in 2020, especially among younger voters

New Catalist estimates:
catalist.us/wh-national/
The density divide remained strong in 2020, but Biden lost ground in urban areas & gained in rural & suburban areas vs 2016

New Catalist estimates:

catalist.us/wh-national/
Read 8 tweets
Matt Grossmann Profile picture
2 May
The run-for-President successful Republican agenda is apparently:
- restrict mail voting
- fine social media for bans
- riot / protest restriction
- ban vaccine passports
- ban transgender in girls sports
- spend the federal stimulus
miamiherald.com/news/politics-…
Noem is pursuing a similar focus on symbolic cultural politics & appeals to conservative media:
nytimes.com/2021/05/02/us/…

In Red State Blues, I find that Republican control of states polarized cultural politics but didn’t shift state economic policy much:
amazon.com/Red-State-Blue…
Meanwhile, Democratic state governments are continuing to move leftward on economic & cultural issues, though without reinvention:
seattletimes.com/seattle-news/p…
Federal $ means size & scope of gov will continue growing across Dem & Rep states, continuing long patterns I found
Read 4 tweets
Matt Grossmann Profile picture
7 Apr
Biden’s reconciliation-driven spend without strings or reform policy agenda seems to reverse Obama-era technocratic trends in Democratic policymaking, with a return to old Dem pol constituency distribution objectives. But it also reflects updated & diversifying academic advice
Economists have largely changed their balance of concerns on deficit spending & on cash benefits. Biden is also relying on more diverse & sociologically-inspired academic advice, visible in defining infrastructure to include social care & greater attention to racial equity.
Points 3 & 4 in @ezraklein's column are similar, but he emphasizes economics losing credibility & change in public mood:
nytimes.com/2021/04/08/opi…
Point #2 about the new generation of staffers also applies to the academic help: more diverse, liberal, & less tied to traditional econ
Read 4 tweets
Matt Grossmann Profile picture
18 Mar
Infrastructure plan is likely to substantially raise both high-income individual taxes & the corporate tax rate. Biden’s 2nd most likely major agenda item is going to be more difficult to pass & not primarily due to the filibuster
axios.com/corporate-tax-…
Business opposition & high-income voter opposition are both associated with difficulty enacting proposals, even if they are supported by the public as a whole. Democratic leaders are not aligned with business, but business still has the power to block most change
It is also the norm for intra-party disagreement to stop many major party priorities from becoming law:


Much discussion of bills with near zero chance of passage, but even the next most likely bill to pass (infrastructure, after COVID) faces big obstacles
Read 4 tweets

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