Bennett to meet his Yamina party members tomorrow at 10am. Expected to inform them he’s joining a government with Lapid. If most of them, especially Shaked stick with him, Netanyahu could be out of office by the end of the week.
Careful with those champagne corks. Even if Bennett, as expected, announces tomorrow, with Shaked by his side, that he’s joining a government with Lapid, there’s plenty still that can go wrong and Netanyahu is working very hard to exploit every single crack, of which they’re many
Lapid has deals so far with Labour, Meretz and Lieberman. Assuming Bennett already knows what he’s getting, there’s still Sa’ar, who needs to show gains for the right-wing. And then there’s Gantz, who by signing on will also be signing away his last hope to become PM in November>
And then there’s Mansour Abbas, whose votes are crucial for the new government (Joint List won’t support a Bennett-led government though some of its MKs may help by abstaining). The deal with Ra’am will be the first of it’s kind in Israeli politics and is fraught with problems.
At least 7 coalition agreements need to be presented before a Bennett-Lapid government can be sworn-in and Likud’s lawyers will be looking for anything they can challenge in the High Court and Likud’s Knesset Speaker will do everything to obstruct the process (he may be replaced)
There’s also a procedural question. If Lapid is the one who notifies the president (before his mandate ends on Wednesday) that he’s capable of forming a government, does that allow someone else (Bennett) to lead that government? It will go to the High Court. I’ts a minefield.

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More from @AnshelPfeffer

30 May
OK. I’m sorry, but all these profiles of Bennett as prime minister and handing-out of medals to the architects of Bibi’s downfall feels a tad premature. I don’t want to depress anyone, but this is the most difficult coalition to build in Israel’s history and it’s far from done.>
For a bare majority of 61, this Bennett-Lapid coalition needs to finalize agreements between 8! separate parties, make sure no-one jumps ship and seal an unprecedented deal with an Arab-Israeli party. All this with Netanyahu fighting for political life and his proxies unleashed.>
What happened tonight is that Bennett finally burned his bridges with Netanyahu, after 15 years of an abusive relationship. It’s a major milestone in Israeli politics, because it seals the split in the right-wing between Netanyahu and the Bennett-Sa’ar-Lieberman trio. But still..
Read 5 tweets
30 May
Now it’s Netanyahu’s turn: “I stand here tonight as a loyal representative of the public elected by 2 million voters (he’s including the voters of the other parties of his blocs) who chose me to protect the people of Israel. They know my compass isn’t broken. I heard Bennett”
Netanyahu: “Bennett said hollow phrases. He’s committed the fraud of the century. Naftali your promises are empty as feathers. If people knew the truth, no-one but yourself would have voted for you. The only thing he cares about is being prime minister. He flip-flopped 3 times”
Netanyahu: “Bennett’s empty words were to transfer the votes from the right to the left. We can still form a right-wing government. If we take the unorthodox step of a government in which Sa’ar is PM 1st, then me, then Bennett. It’s crooked, but a left-wing government is worse”
Read 7 tweets
30 May
Bennett up: “4 elections have damaged the state... ministers haven’t lead and instead spread hatred and discord among the nation, to cover their failure. It won’t happen again, not on my watch. The political crisis in Israel is unprecedented in the world. We can stop the madness”
Bennett: “There is no majority for a right-wing government. It’s a lie. It’s failed because no-one believes the promises will be fulfilled. Netanyahu isn’t trying to really form a right-wing government, he’s taking the national camp and the state of Israel to his personal Masada”
Bennett: “I’m going to work with all my strength to form a unity government with my friend Yair Lapid. All the parties are invited to take part. None of us can fulfill all our ideologies but this will be a government that will not be against any part of society, but for everyone”
Read 6 tweets
20 May
Perhaps it’s because everything in the twitter bubble is so fast, raw and emotional, there’s a feeling this round of warfare in Gaza has changed something. But has it? The last round in 2014 was much longer, with many more casualties and nothing changed. Why different this time?
Perhaps it’s because I’ve become jaded doing this for too long but I can remember a “this time it’s different, this time it’s a real Intifada, this time the world isn’t going to stand for it anymore” vibe in each of the rounds of violence I’ve covered, long before social media.>
Even the one time an actual Intifada did break out in 2000, it didn’t change the basic dynamics. What did change was at some point that I’m not sure anyone can accurately put their finger on, it stopped being the Arab-Israeli conflict and became the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Read 8 tweets
15 May
A week ago Israel was about to have a new government supported by right-wing, left-wing, centrist and Arab parties which was to concentrate on a “civilian agenda” and “reconciliation.” 5 days of internecine violence shattered that illusion. It’s still Netanyahu’s Israel.
I’ve yet to see real evidence Netanyahu somehow engineered these dual crises in Gaza and between Jews and Arabs in Israel but it’s a direct result of his policies. He inherited in 2009 the previous government policy’s of blockading Gaza but in 12 years did nothing to change it.>
In regard to Jewish-Arab relations Netanyahu did everything to exacerbated generations-old hatreds between communities, not because he’s a racist, but because an us-against-them mindset held his electoral base together. For political reasons, he also degraded the Israeli police>
Read 9 tweets
10 May
A few quick thoughts on the ongoing escalation right now. First, Hamas surprised everyone. In hindsight the way they piggybacked on events in Jerusalem to grasp the leadership, now that elections are postponed makes sense. But no-one in Israel truly expected them to do it now.>
Since Summer 2014 the consensus in Israel has been that Hamas is “deterred” and Sinwar is too focused on consolidating his hold on Gaza to risk another major escalation. That assessment came toppling down at 18:01 when the sirens wailed in Jerusalem. Sinwar is ready to gamble.>
It would be presumptuous predict what Hamas’ endgame is at this point. They’ve grasped the mantle of defenders of Al Aqsa, humiliated the Israeli government (the scenes of the Knesset plenum being evacuated will be useful PR) mad challenged Fatah. But where do they go from here?>
Read 12 tweets

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