Thread by @AnshelPfeffer

A few quick thoughts on the ongoing escalation right now. First, Hamas surprised everyone. In hindsight the way they piggybacked on events in Jerusalem to grasp the leadership, now that elections are postponed makes sense. But no-one in Israel truly expected them to do it now.>

Since Summer 2014 the consensus in Israel has been that Hamas is “deterred” and Sinwar is too focused on consolidating his hold on Gaza to risk another major escalation. That assessment came toppling down at 18:01 when the sirens wailed in Jerusalem. Sinwar is ready to gamble.>

It would be presumptuous predict what Hamas’ endgame is at this point. They’ve grasped the mantle of defenders of Al Aqsa, humiliated the Israeli government (the scenes of the Knesset plenum being evacuated will be useful PR) mad challenged Fatah. But where do they go from here?>

That said. One seasoned Hamas-watcher said to me tonight that he believes Sinwar was “dragged” to action and that he would have preferred not to take the risk, but had no other choice when the Palestinian narrative is that “Al Aqsa is under attack” but he’d like to stop here.>

Meanwhile, there’s a huge development which isn’t getting much attention in the international media and that’s the dozens of riots ongoing tonight in Arab-Israeli towns. No-one saw that either and the last time we’ve seen anything on this scale was October 2000. This isn’t Hamas>

This also no-one predicted because in recent months all we’ve been hearing about Arab-Israelis is how eager they are to integrate and play their part in the Israeli political game. Tonight’s riots don’t disprove that necessarily, but they’re a reminder for the need for nuance.>

The power of Al Aqsa doesn’t pass over Arab-Israelis. Many young Palestinians protesting on Temple Mount in recent days are Arab-Israeli and we should have foreseen this spreading. It doesn’t necessarily reflect everyone or mean there’s less of a desire for political integration>

Likewise, I don’t think it automatically means the talks between Bennett and Mansour Abbas on some kind of coalition agreement that will lead to replacing Netanyahu are off the table. It will certainly take a few more days and will depend on how long this wave of riots continues>

Back to Jerusalem. Every Palestinian I asked over the last 48 hours in the city said they think things will calm down by Eid al-Fitr. Make of it what you will. Certainly, with Ramadan over, people will be spending more time at work and there will be less night-time activity. But>

The problem is, none of the factors that combined to make this such a hellish Ramadan in Jerusalem: Sheikh Jarrah evictions, bullying inexperienced police, lack of leadership, high unemployment and school drop-outs post-covid, an emboldened Israeli far-right are going away soon.>

The lull, when it comes, is unlikely to be very long and since there are now confrontations in three separate but interconnected spheres (Jerusalem, Gaza, Green Line, West Bank is tense but so far hasn’t erupted) the lull may take a while longer. Good night.

One last thought. One factor that I mentioned earlier contributing to the situation in Jerusalem, the emboldened far-right, warrants a lot more attention. Ben-Gvir just happened to be this month at critical moments at places that became serious flash-points. Netanyahu’s legacy.