Perhaps it’s because everything in the twitter bubble is so fast, raw and emotional, there’s a feeling this round of warfare in Gaza has changed something. But has it? The last round in 2014 was much longer, with many more casualties and nothing changed. Why different this time?
Perhaps it’s because I’ve become jaded doing this for too long but I can remember a “this time it’s different, this time it’s a real Intifada, this time the world isn’t going to stand for it anymore” vibe in each of the rounds of violence I’ve covered, long before social media.>
Even the one time an actual Intifada did break out in 2000, it didn’t change the basic dynamics. What did change was at some point that I’m not sure anyone can accurately put their finger on, it stopped being the Arab-Israeli conflict and became the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Because a lot of the (social) media discourse is defined in the US, there’s a feeling that since the progressive twitterati, including young Jews and a few congress members, are more worked up this time, that’s a game-changer for a conflict 6000 miles away. That’s a bit arrogant.
Also. There’s a kind of irony to the fact that the wing of US politics that’s currently turning against Israel happens to be the wing that also thinks the US should be less interventionist. So theoretically, if they were in power, Israel would anyway be less influenced by the US.
Anyway, if the long tragic history of American engagement in the Middle East has taught us anything, it’s that US presidents and administrations are almost powerless to dictate their designs on the region. That won’t be any different if a future administration is not pro-Israel.
This was just a long way of saying that we should be very wary of assuming that shifting political moods in the US will have that much of an influence on what happens on the ground between Israelis and Palestinians.
Some people answering this thread saying “but now finally the media is showing it.” As if since the start of the 1st Intifada in 1987 Israel/Palestine hasn’t been saturated with international media showing every bit of it.
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A week ago Israel was about to have a new government supported by right-wing, left-wing, centrist and Arab parties which was to concentrate on a “civilian agenda” and “reconciliation.” 5 days of internecine violence shattered that illusion. It’s still Netanyahu’s Israel.
I’ve yet to see real evidence Netanyahu somehow engineered these dual crises in Gaza and between Jews and Arabs in Israel but it’s a direct result of his policies. He inherited in 2009 the previous government policy’s of blockading Gaza but in 12 years did nothing to change it.>
In regard to Jewish-Arab relations Netanyahu did everything to exacerbated generations-old hatreds between communities, not because he’s a racist, but because an us-against-them mindset held his electoral base together. For political reasons, he also degraded the Israeli police>
A few quick thoughts on the ongoing escalation right now. First, Hamas surprised everyone. In hindsight the way they piggybacked on events in Jerusalem to grasp the leadership, now that elections are postponed makes sense. But no-one in Israel truly expected them to do it now.>
Since Summer 2014 the consensus in Israel has been that Hamas is “deterred” and Sinwar is too focused on consolidating his hold on Gaza to risk another major escalation. That assessment came toppling down at 18:01 when the sirens wailed in Jerusalem. Sinwar is ready to gamble.>
It would be presumptuous predict what Hamas’ endgame is at this point. They’ve grasped the mantle of defenders of Al Aqsa, humiliated the Israeli government (the scenes of the Knesset plenum being evacuated will be useful PR) mad challenged Fatah. But where do they go from here?>
What sounds like a missive warning siren now in central Jerusalem. Police evacuating the square
Series of three loud explosions now heard in central Jerusalem
Police trying to disperse the Flags March so they’ll take shelter in City Hall compound. Kids steaming back in to the square and chanting “death to the Arabs!”
Police in Jerusalem doing absolutely everything wrong since the beginning of Ramadan and as a result we’ve the worst clashes in the city since 2017. The easy conclusion is that Netanyahu wants an escalation to disrupt the formation of a new government without him. That’s not it.>
Behind Netanyahu’s warmongering image is a cautious and risk-averse politician. It’s no coincidence there’s been no intifada on his watch. He talks tough but in E Jerusalem and the West Bank he’s avoided major escalations. The police’s heavy-handedness now isn’t on his orders.>
If anything, what we’re seeing in Jerusalem is a result of Netanyahu’s absence. He’s too preoccupied with his imminent political demise. Meanwhile the top cops, commissioner, Jerusalem district commander and public security minister are all inexperienced blundering bullies.>
Netanyahu on stage with Sara. Forced smiles. He doesn’t look very happy. He’ll proclaim victory anyway, despite not having a majority by now in any of the updated exit-polls.
Netanyahu: “We’re here tonight to say to you thank you from the depths of our hearts (long list of functionaries). Tonight we’ve made Likud the largest party in Israel by a very large margin (basic maths on margin between Likud and Yesh Atid) “the media doesn’t like to say this”
Netanyahu: More self-congratulatory talk on how “we brought vaccines for everyone” and how “we need to continue standing up to Iran and to the ICC” and “bring more peace accords with Arab states, peace for peace, not peace for uprooting Jews” so far sounds like his stump speech.
A few more thoughts on the exit-polls. Netanyahu just tweeted thanking Israeli citizens for “a massive win for the right and the Likud under my leadership.” He may have won, but he knows it’s still to early to call. He needs to establish a victory narrative as soon as possible>
Netanyahu’s majority may grow in the actual results, but there’s still a considerable chance it shrinks and all it takes is one less seat for his bloc and it’s stalemate again. And even if he has his majority, it’s a coalition of 61 headaches where every MK has a gun to his head>
The first thing Netanyahu will do after his victory speech (actually, he’s already trying to do it now) is to find more sources of support, beyond his “bloc”. He needs some leeway if he doesn’t want to blackmailed daily by his “natural partners”, he needs some news ones. But who?