Manchester United needs to start the season better to properly challenge for the title: A Thread ( No Visualisations). Thanks to @jaseziv's wonderful #worldfootballR package that made this analysis a lot easier than I originally thought
#mufc secured back-to-back seasons of #UCL football for the first time since Sir Alex retired. Not just that, we also did this with a game left. However, once again, #mufc did not have a good start to the season which has been a recurring theme in recent years.
Most discussions around what United needs to do to win the title involve answers like a good transfer window, buying so and so players, etc. All that is there but if #mufc are to really win/challenge for the title we need to have a good-to-excellent start to the season.
Our start to the season has been pretty average for the last 8 seasons with the 17/18 season being a marginal exception. In order to do this analysis, I have considered the first 10 games of a season.
Historically, any team with < 6 wins in the first 10 games cannot be considered as title challengers. That being said, City in 20/21 had only won 5/10 games. However, from December to February, they went on an amazing run that can be rarely repeated.
In 17/18, #mufc had one of their best starts to the season in recent years, winning 23/30 points. However, that was the only season in which we won more than 6 games in the first 10 games of a season since Fergie retired. We got to 81 points in that season.
In 19/20, Under Ole, we won only 3 of the first 10 games. That number increased to 6 in 2020/21 and we at one point were top of the table but eventually dropped off because of a lack of consistency towards the tail end of the season.
In 15/16 as well we had 6 wins from the first 10 games and had 20/30 points but poor results during December meant we eventually dropped off the race.
Comparing these numbers with the title winners from recent seasons, Liverpool in 19/20 won 9 of their first 10 games. City in 17/18 won 9/10 games and in 18/19 won 8 of the first 10 games. Chelsea in 16/17 won 22/30 points and had 7 wins from the first 10 games.
A major reason why United don't win as many games as they should early in the season is because of their defensive record. In 20/21, United conceded 17 goals in the first 10 games but 35% of it coming in one game if you exclude that game 11 in 9 games.
In 19/20 though, we conceded only 10 goals but our failure to score enough resulted in losing costly points at the start of the season. In 17/18 we conceded only 4 goals in the first 10 games, another evidence to show we had an excellent start to the season that year.
Comparing these numbers with the title challengers from recent years. City have not conceded more than 11 goals in the first 10 games in the last 8 seasons. They have been champions 4 times during this period. Liverpool in 19/20 conceded only 8 goals in their first 10 games.
Chelsea in 16/17 conceded only 9 goals and in 14/15 conceded only 10 goals. The average for a team looking to win the title/start the season well is somewhere around 9-10 goals.
It is a popular opinion that titles are decided in the weeks of December-January as the schedule gets hectic. However, a good start to the season, especially defensively, could play a massive part in determining if a team is a proper challenger or not.
If you've come this far, thanks for reading :) You can check out @jaseziv's package below:
I have had questions from a few people in recent weeks as to how I got started with analytics in football. I don’t think I am qualified to advise people as there are people out there who can guide you better but I will share a few accounts that you can follow to observe and learn
Before I go in detailly, if there is one piece of advice I would give to people looking to pursue a career in this field:
Trust me, it takes a lot of effort and time but if you are really serious about this just be patient and do not stop doing what you are doing already.
I have a different day job (that is not data analytics related) and football analytics is something that I do additionally ( like most people in this platform are doing ) because I have a huge passion for football and specifically data analytics.
Are Manchester United shooting and allowing shots more frequently in the 20/21 PL season?
RTs appreciated :)
#MUFC rank 3rd for volume of shots in the Premier League this season. United also rank 1st for SoT but that is not a surprise when you consider that they have scored the most goals in the league.
Yes, #MUFC do well for shot accuracy but it has to be mentioned that 32% of #MUFC’s goals came in two games - against Leeds United and Southampton. Similarly, 23% of #MUFC’s shots came in three games - against Newcastle United, Leeds United, & Southampton.
Ole Gunnar Solskjaer is known to make some strange substitutions and especially delayed substitutions. The manager has come under criticism for this multiple times.The argument in favor of Ole last season was that there was not enough quality on the bench to create an impact.
United have added quality to their depth. Has this impacted the substitutions Ole Gunnar Solskjaer makes? Does he make the substitutions early this year? Have any of these substituted players created a notable impact in any of the games so far? In this short thread, I analyze
Ole was often known to make all/most of his changes at the same time last season. However, this season Ole tends to spread the use of substitutes very well with the manager at least making one early change as indicated by the increase in % between minute 46’ and 60’.