Yesterday, the biggest hurdle before the Bennett/Lapid government - getting Bennett to agree to it - was officially overcome.
But there are other hurdles. For the coalition to succeed, everything on this list must go right.
In my subjective opinion, from most to least thorny:
But there are other hurdles. For the coalition to succeed, everything on this list must go right.
In my subjective opinion, from most to least thorny:
1: Time
Lapid's coalition requires four more parties who haven't yet signed on: Blue & White, New Hope, Yamina, and Ra'am.
He has less than 2.5 days to make them all happy. Sorting out who gets how many cabinet and committee positions will take him right up to the deadline.
Lapid's coalition requires four more parties who haven't yet signed on: Blue & White, New Hope, Yamina, and Ra'am.
He has less than 2.5 days to make them all happy. Sorting out who gets how many cabinet and committee positions will take him right up to the deadline.
Lapid can buy time with the "announcement loophole". Merely claiming he has a coalition ready gives him 7 days in which to present it to the Knesset for a vote, during which he can finalize the deals.
But he'd be the first to ever use this tactic, and will lose face if it fails.
But he'd be the first to ever use this tactic, and will lose face if it fails.
2: Ra'am
It's been 29 years since an Arab party last voted in favor of a coalition, and a lot has happened since then. Ra'am leader Mansour Abbas has been publicly pushing for Jewish-Arab coexistence, but the riots two weeks ago have made sealing this deal more difficult.
It's been 29 years since an Arab party last voted in favor of a coalition, and a lot has happened since then. Ra'am leader Mansour Abbas has been publicly pushing for Jewish-Arab coexistence, but the riots two weeks ago have made sealing this deal more difficult.
3: Benny Gantz
Under the current government, Blue & White leader Benny Gantz will become prime minister on November 17.
He therefore has a major incentive to see the coalition talks fail. For what can Lapid possibly offer him that is better than the prime ministry?
Under the current government, Blue & White leader Benny Gantz will become prime minister on November 17.
He therefore has a major incentive to see the coalition talks fail. For what can Lapid possibly offer him that is better than the prime ministry?
Gantz's counterincentives:
a) He can't become PM if he gets <3.25% of the vote next election, so he can't sabotage the talks too blatantly.
b) There's enough time after the election for somebody else - Netanyahu? - to try to form a coalition, which is Gantz's worst-case scenario.
a) He can't become PM if he gets <3.25% of the vote next election, so he can't sabotage the talks too blatantly.
b) There's enough time after the election for somebody else - Netanyahu? - to try to form a coalition, which is Gantz's worst-case scenario.
4: The Yamina-Meretz divide
The quasireligious-right Yamina has in principle agreed to join the government, but there is an ideological gulf between them and far-left Meretz. It'll take careful balancing to ensure promises to Yamina don't violate promises already given to Meretz.
The quasireligious-right Yamina has in principle agreed to join the government, but there is an ideological gulf between them and far-left Meretz. It'll take careful balancing to ensure promises to Yamina don't violate promises already given to Meretz.
5: Defections
We've already seen one Yamina MK decide he morally must oppose this government. Just two more, from any party, and Lapid no longer has a majority.
In which case he'd need to negotiate with another Arab party, The Joint List, to get them to at minimum abstain.
We've already seen one Yamina MK decide he morally must oppose this government. Just two more, from any party, and Lapid no longer has a majority.
In which case he'd need to negotiate with another Arab party, The Joint List, to get them to at minimum abstain.
6: Legality
To get Bennett on board, Lapid had to offer him the prime ministry for the first two years of the coalition's tenure. But it's not 100% clear he can legally do that, because Lapid is the one with the prime ministerial mandate.
To get Bennett on board, Lapid had to offer him the prime ministry for the first two years of the coalition's tenure. But it's not 100% clear he can legally do that, because Lapid is the one with the prime ministerial mandate.
https://twitter.com/IsraelexLive/status/1398925218949836808
There are a few ways around this, each with its own downside. See thread for details:
https://twitter.com/IsraelexLive/status/1398924378600095751
Honorable mention: Entropy
Even if the government is formed, it may not last long. The left-right ideological divide may be bridged for now through a shared dislike of Benjamin Netanyahu, but once he is out of office it will take everything Lapid's got to keep the sides together.
Even if the government is formed, it may not last long. The left-right ideological divide may be bridged for now through a shared dislike of Benjamin Netanyahu, but once he is out of office it will take everything Lapid's got to keep the sides together.
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