In just a few minutes, #IsraelexPresident begins.

The candidates: Isaac Herzog and Miriam Peretz.

The voters: the 120 members of Israel's parliament, the Knesset.

The method: Secret ballot.
The position: President of Israel, an apolitical and mostly ceremonial posting.

The powers: Selection of future holders of the prime ministerial mandate and granting of pardons.

The term length: 7 years, no second term allowed.
Dont expect the classic left/right divide in this vote. There is no party discipline here. Anybody can vote for anybody.
Only 87 MKs are in the plenum right now. Since you need an absolute majority of 61, we're (hilariously) headed for a runoff unless the vote is unexpectedly one-sided.

In a demonstration that this isn't left vs. right, the charedi parties have decided to vote for Herzog. (Though of course there's no way of knowing if every individual MK actually will.)

The speaker is asking the MKs to sit and listen as he goes over the procedure of the vote. MKs will be called up one by one to vote in alphabetical order by surname; if they aren't present, they'll be called again at the end to see if they showed up.
Each MK will place one slip of paper, that reads either Herzog, Peretz, or blank, into an envelope - just like what we do when we vote for the Knesset.
If I heard correctly, you don't actually need an absolute majority in the first round, because there are only two candidates. Simple majority suffices. But I may be wrong about this.
As PM, Netanyahu is being honored with the first vote even though he is not first alphabetically.
The MKs are going into the voting booth one by one.

Fun fact: In 1993, they embarrassingly discovered 124 votes in the ballot box and had to redo the vote.
I'm not going to announce each MK entering the booth. We don't know who they're voting for, it's a waste of my time and yours, and I have to fix a broken shelf in my fridge. But I'm watching live and will let you know if anything interesting happens before voting ends.
If the presidential vote becomes a microcosm of the national Knesset vote, we should all just accept we're in a TV series.

There are 107 MKs present. Most of the party leaders who are engaged in coalition negotiations are absent.

I'm so glad I'm on Twitter rather than covering this live on television. I can go silent while we wait for the results. The poor news anchors have no choice but to fill time by pointing out which MKs are talking to which other MKs and speculating wildly about why.
Almost halfway through the vote now.
3/4 of the way through the vote now.
I think looking at these is cheating, and if I were an MK I'd pocket a pile of slips just to mess with you all.
Voting has concluded, and there is a short break now while they count the votes. #IsraelexPresident
According to @talschneider, 119 votes were cast; only Mansour Abbas was not present.
If there aren't too many blank ballots, it looks like we won't be going to a runoff.
Correction to an earlier tweet in this thread: Only UTJ is voting lockstep for Herzog. Shas MKs were free to vote how they like. (Though of course even UTJ has no way to track if their MKs voted as ordered.)
The counting is complete. A few double-checks and we're getting the announcement soon...
Already seeing tweets from reporters saying that Herzog has won.
Herzog 87(!)
Peretz 26
Presumably 6 blank ballots based on these numbers.

Isaac Herzog will be the next President of Israel. #IsraelexPresident
Correction: 3 blank ballots, 3 invalid ballots.

Herzog's 87 votes is the most attained by any candidate in Israeli presidential history. Previous record is 86, achieved three times:
* Peres in 2007
* Navon in 1978
* Shazar in 1968
Herzog's victory could have been even greater. All 3 invalid ballots were failed attempts to vote for him.

Herzog's victory was so large (87 out of 113 votes cast, 3 spoiled ballots) that it is virtually certain that many of the 30 Likud MKs voted for him.

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More from @IsraelexLive

2 Jun
Boom. Lapid announces he has formed a coalition.

He now has 7 days to bring it to a vote.
Clarification that I was not previously aware of: The 7 days begin only once the Knesset is officially informed of his success, which will happen Monday. So he has until June 14.

(Apologies, I posted the previous tweet having just got home from the supermarket and saw the news.)
Of course, Lapid will not want to wait until June 14. Assuming he has all of the details of the coalition worked out (he may not, yet), he'll want to hold the vote as early as possible.
Read 4 tweets
2 Jun
I am getting similar questions from a lot of people: How is it that Yamina can demand so much, including the prime ministry, despite having only 7 seats?
My younger and smarter brother cannily pointed out that this situation is very similar to the flagpole question in Chapter 12 of the truly excellent book "More Sideways Arithmetic from Wayside School" by Louis Sachar.

Read it and work through the problems and you'll understand.
Yes, this recommendation sounds silly. But that book - like its predecessor, Sideways Arithmetic - was an excellent introduction for us as elementary school kids to fascinating concepts like demand/supply curves and the unexpected hanging paradox, without us even knowing it.
Read 4 tweets
31 May
Yesterday, the biggest hurdle before the Bennett/Lapid government - getting Bennett to agree to it - was officially overcome.

But there are other hurdles. For the coalition to succeed, everything on this list must go right.

In my subjective opinion, from most to least thorny:
1: Time
Lapid's coalition requires four more parties who haven't yet signed on: Blue & White, New Hope, Yamina, and Ra'am.

He has less than 2.5 days to make them all happy. Sorting out who gets how many cabinet and committee positions will take him right up to the deadline.
Lapid can buy time with the "announcement loophole". Merely claiming he has a coalition ready gives him 7 days in which to present it to the Knesset for a vote, during which he can finalize the deals.

But he'd be the first to ever use this tactic, and will lose face if it fails.
Read 11 tweets
30 May
For the benefit of my foreign followers - particularly Americans who are unfamiliar with parliamentary democracy - I'm going to break down exactly where Israeli politics stand at the moment.
To become prime minister after an election, you need to form a coalition. This requires two steps:

1) You need the legal right (the "mandate") to present a coalition for approval.
2) The coalition must pass an up-or-down vote among the 120 members of the Knesset.
Currently the prime minister is the head of the right-wing Likud party, Benjamin Netanyahu.

But the mandate is held by the head of the centrist Yesh Atid party, Yair Lapid. Lapid has the mandate until end of day Tuesday, which gives him less than 2.5 days to form a coalition.
Read 19 tweets
28 May
I finally heard an explanation as to why some are claiming #Israelex5 is going to be held on October 5, rather than my prediction of September 30.

The October date is a possibility, but the logic is based on several assumptions, many true, one doubtful, and one false.
It goes like this: By law, #Israelex5 is scheduled for Tuesday, September 21. But this is the first day of Sukkot, so you need to push it off to the following Tuesday, September 28. But this is Simchat Torah, so you need to push it off to the following Tuesday, October 5.
The explanation I heard admits that you'd need to pass an amendment to the law to allow you to push it off in this fashion. (Or, alternatively, dissolve the Knesset early, which allows you to freely schedule it for any date that the majority can agree on.)
Read 11 tweets
25 Mar
#Israelex4 update: 4,435,805 votes tallied (+6,287).

No changes:
Likud 30
Yesh Atid 17
Shas 9
Blue & White 8
Yamina 7
Lieberman 7
Labor 7
UTJ 7
New Hope 6
RZP 6
Meretz 6
Joint List 6
Ra'am 4
Updated candidate chart (I'm not calling it "Candidates at risk" anymore because the results are pretty much final and nobody here is at risk):
We have a new record for fewest votes in a national election: The Human Dignity Party, with 196.

(The Democratic Party has only 59, but they dropped out of the race - those votes will be removed from the count just before it is certified.)
Read 6 tweets

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