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2 Jun, 4 tweets, 1 min read
Boom. Lapid announces he has formed a coalition.

He now has 7 days to bring it to a vote.
Clarification that I was not previously aware of: The 7 days begin only once the Knesset is officially informed of his success, which will happen Monday. So he has until June 14.

(Apologies, I posted the previous tweet having just got home from the supermarket and saw the news.)
Of course, Lapid will not want to wait until June 14. Assuming he has all of the details of the coalition worked out (he may not, yet), he'll want to hold the vote as early as possible.
In the best case scenario Lapid can afford only one defection, so he doesn't want any MKs in his bloc to have the time to reconsider.

But the Knesset speaker is from the Likud, and he's the one who schedules the vote...

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More from @IsraelexLive

Israeli Elections Live Profile picture
3 Jun
The new coalition has collected and submitted the 61 signatures necessary to replace the Knesset speaker. It looks like the opposition isn't waiting to see if Levin will delay their vote; they want to hold it as soon as possible.
The new speaker-to-be is Yesh Atid's Mickey Levy.

Assuming Lapid has everything in order, expect him to schedule the vote on the new coalition as soon as possible - Tuesday or Wednesday at the latest, so Netanyahu won't have time to attract defectors.

Weird things are happening with this document. Some MKs are claiming they've never seen it, much less signed it...
Read 10 tweets
Israeli Elections Live Profile picture
2 Jun
I am getting similar questions from a lot of people: How is it that Yamina can demand so much, including the prime ministry, despite having only 7 seats?
My younger and smarter brother cannily pointed out that this situation is very similar to the flagpole question in Chapter 12 of the truly excellent book "More Sideways Arithmetic from Wayside School" by Louis Sachar.

Read it and work through the problems and you'll understand.
Yes, this recommendation sounds silly. But that book - like its predecessor, Sideways Arithmetic - was an excellent introduction for us as elementary school kids to fascinating concepts like demand/supply curves and the unexpected hanging paradox, without us even knowing it.
Read 4 tweets
Israeli Elections Live Profile picture
2 Jun
In just a few minutes, #IsraelexPresident begins.

The candidates: Isaac Herzog and Miriam Peretz.

The voters: the 120 members of Israel's parliament, the Knesset.

The method: Secret ballot.
The position: President of Israel, an apolitical and mostly ceremonial posting.

The powers: Selection of future holders of the prime ministerial mandate and granting of pardons.

The term length: 7 years, no second term allowed.
Dont expect the classic left/right divide in this vote. There is no party discipline here. Anybody can vote for anybody.
Read 30 tweets
Israeli Elections Live Profile picture
31 May
Yesterday, the biggest hurdle before the Bennett/Lapid government - getting Bennett to agree to it - was officially overcome.

But there are other hurdles. For the coalition to succeed, everything on this list must go right.

In my subjective opinion, from most to least thorny:
1: Time
Lapid's coalition requires four more parties who haven't yet signed on: Blue & White, New Hope, Yamina, and Ra'am.

He has less than 2.5 days to make them all happy. Sorting out who gets how many cabinet and committee positions will take him right up to the deadline.
Lapid can buy time with the "announcement loophole". Merely claiming he has a coalition ready gives him 7 days in which to present it to the Knesset for a vote, during which he can finalize the deals.

But he'd be the first to ever use this tactic, and will lose face if it fails.
Read 11 tweets
Israeli Elections Live Profile picture
30 May
For the benefit of my foreign followers - particularly Americans who are unfamiliar with parliamentary democracy - I'm going to break down exactly where Israeli politics stand at the moment.
To become prime minister after an election, you need to form a coalition. This requires two steps:

1) You need the legal right (the "mandate") to present a coalition for approval.
2) The coalition must pass an up-or-down vote among the 120 members of the Knesset.
Currently the prime minister is the head of the right-wing Likud party, Benjamin Netanyahu.

But the mandate is held by the head of the centrist Yesh Atid party, Yair Lapid. Lapid has the mandate until end of day Tuesday, which gives him less than 2.5 days to form a coalition.
Read 19 tweets
Israeli Elections Live Profile picture
28 May
I finally heard an explanation as to why some are claiming #Israelex5 is going to be held on October 5, rather than my prediction of September 30.

The October date is a possibility, but the logic is based on several assumptions, many true, one doubtful, and one false.
It goes like this: By law, #Israelex5 is scheduled for Tuesday, September 21. But this is the first day of Sukkot, so you need to push it off to the following Tuesday, September 28. But this is Simchat Torah, so you need to push it off to the following Tuesday, October 5.
The explanation I heard admits that you'd need to pass an amendment to the law to allow you to push it off in this fashion. (Or, alternatively, dissolve the Knesset early, which allows you to freely schedule it for any date that the majority can agree on.)
Read 11 tweets

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