Thread by @jpr007

TESLA SHANGHAI - 2021 Q2

"CICC expects that in Q2 2021 Tesla's factory in China will be able to supply 107,000 units, including domestic sales and exports"

This is very difficult to imagine

Let us examine the facts

1. The current Scheduled Capacity for M3 + MY is 84,375 units

2. Stated Capacity for M3 + MY is 112,500 units per quarter

- but this requires 4-shift operation on both lines

- the M3 line is running 4 shifts

- the MY line is only running 2 shifts

Hence the Scheduled Capacity of 84,375 units for 2021 Q2

3. Shanghai Production in April 2021 was 30,494 units

- so May + June would have to total 76,506 units in order to hit a total of 107,000 units for the quarter

4. If Shanghai suddenly switched to full 4-shift operation at the end of April on both lines for May and June the combined output of both lines would be 75,000 units for those two months

- that would bring them close, but it is a highly unlikely scenario to add 3 crews that fast

5. The most likely scenario for the quarter is :

- full production on the 4-shift M3 line = 56,250 units

- 2-shift production on the ramping MY line with overtime to give 48 weekly hours per crew instead of 40 hours = 28,125 x 120% = 33,750 units

Total = 90,000 units

6. This is in line with April actual Production +/-500 units per month

7. This assumes NO DOWNTIME for the big May Day holiday, which is typically one week long

8. This assumes NO DOWNTIME for a reported production line upgrade, which was said to be two weeks in duration

9. Actual production for May should give us further insights into the reality