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Andrew Watt Profile picture
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2 Jun, 4 tweets, 2 min read
It is great to see #Vietnam moving up the value chain and developing its own tech, selling it in foreign markets.
OTOH selling hi-end EVs to Americans seems an odd focus. And not just for the reason cited here: it might be a costly failure.
1/4
🇻🇳 ppl currently rely overwhelmingly on motorbikes for private transport, but cars are increasingly common as the middle class expands . Trade agreements are also leading to cuts in hi import duties. Congestion and air pollution are huge problems in urban areas.
2/4
At the same time🇻🇳 has gr8 potential for solar and wind power.
It could become a world leader in electric motorbikes & small affordable EVs. These cd be exported but wd more importantly address pressing domestic economic & ecological development issues.
3/4
This wd require a joined-up development strategy, however. Rather the country seems to rely on a one product national champion a la Tesla, which in the Vietnamese context carries major political-economy risks.
@miketatarski @findingsen
4/4

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More from @AndrewWattEU

Andrew Watt Profile picture
2 Jun
The EU Commission @PaoloGentiloni has just issued a communication on EU economic policy and its coordination - the fiscal rules and those governing so-called macroeconomic imbalances.
ec.europa.eu/info/system/fi…
Mostly light, but some shadows.
Thread 👇
1/n
I'll look quickly in turn at
- Next Generation EU
- the (suspension of the) fiscal rules
- monitoring of macro imbalances

2/n
NGEU
Not much new here. COM welcomes the fact that all MS have approved the increase in own resources & almost all have submitted recovery plans. The borrowing-and-disbursing process can begin following COM plan-approval and endorsement by the Council (within 1 month).
3/n
Read 15 tweets
Andrew Watt Profile picture
1 Jun
imk-boeckler.de/de/faust-detai…
@SDullien and I have updated our vacccination forecast for Germany first published in March.
Developments since then require some adjustments, but basically 🇩🇪 remains on track ... with some risks.
Short thread on the main findings 👇
1/
Our mid-March forecast was that 75% of German adults (52.5m people) could be completely vaccinated by end of July. At the time this was highly controversial, but the marked acceleration in vaccinations since has largely borne out the prediction.
2/ ImageImage
Overall the delivery schedules are such that dispensing the requisite number of shots by end July shld not be a problem.
There are two problems, however: the gap between 1st and 2nd shots & issues relating to the vector-based vaccines from #Astrazeneca and #JohnsonandJohnson
3/
Read 10 tweets
Andrew Watt Profile picture
28 Apr
Completely agree with @sjwrenlewis economic analysis of EU fiscal rules. Fiscal policy should be about macroeconomic stabilisation not government-debt limitation. Happily, I disagree somewhat on the politics: Feasible reforms cd get us nearer where we need to be.
Thread 👇
1/19
The basic economic insight is:
“<when> the economy is growing rapidly relative to the EU average individual countries need to contract fiscal policy, and in relative downturns … need fiscal stimulus <because> monetary union takes away effective national monetary policy.”
2/19
I'd just make more explicit what is implicit: countries in the former (latter) situation tend to have above-average (below-average) inflation, thus below (above) ave real interest rates, a loss (gain) in competitiveness & thus a tendency to current acc. deficits (surpluses).
3/19
Read 19 tweets
Andrew Watt Profile picture
1 Mar
How much does the EU and how much does each member state have to do to achieve the agreed vaccination target (70% of the adult population fully vaccinated by 21st September)?
A short thread 👇, first the results then some discussion of the calulations.

💉🇪🇺
1/8
Starting with the EU, the graph shows that in the 205 days left, a tad over 0.5% of the (total) population needs to get a jab every day. The current rate is a little under 0.2 per day. This implies a needed acceleration by a factor of around 2.7 (right-hand scale).
2/8
Comparing countries, Malta is an outlier, barely needing to accelerate at all (by 4%), whereas Belgium must raise its recent poor performance more than four-and-a-half times. 21 countries need to at least double the rate at which jabs are administered to meet the target.
3/8
Read 8 tweets
Andrew Watt Profile picture
12 May 20
Devastating, incredibly prophetic quotes from the dissenting opinion in the #GCC 2014 ruling on #OMT (in German).

tldr in English: do *not* fall for the line that the German constitution obliged the #BVerfG to rule as it did.

1/4
Rather there has been a persistent effort over an extended to open up the legal space to make the recent ruling possible.

Let me unoffically translate one long sentence (written, to repeat, in 2014) which encapsulates what is problematic about last week's ruling:

2/4
"That a few independent German judges, basing themselves on the German interpretation of the democracy principle and on the limits this and our interpretation of A123ff TFEU set on the legitimate powers of the independent ECB, take a decision with incalculably far-reaching...
3/4
Read 4 tweets
Andrew Watt Profile picture
4 May 20
Useful thread with links on the upcoming ruling by the German Constitutional Court #BVerfG.
What is not sufficently emphasised imho is the risk to the entire legal framework of the EU. It's not just a matter of EMU. The primacy and thus the consistency of EU law is at stake.
1
If countries can subvert agreed EU procedures and institutions, on which the highest EU court, the ECJ, has made a ruling, using national (constitutional) courts, & deriving a legitimacy from their own national constitutions, we are on a slippery slope indeed.
2
Update based on first report of the decision (spiegel.de/wirtschaft/ezb…)
We are indeed on a slippery slope. Let us be clear: The GCC (a majority of 7:1 judges) is of the opinion that the ECJ has made an error in interpreting EU law. This is not just a technical mon pol issue.
Read 13 tweets

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