One of the many perverse outcomes of Brexit is that it may have simultaneously led to an increase in EU immigration but also a decrease in EU “hospitality workers”.

This sounds, at first, counter intuitive but increasingly looks likely to have happened.

This is how...
2/

The major impact Brexit had on EU citizens was to force upon them a choice:
Stay in UK to get settled status & avoid visa/border issues...or leave.

We now know that more EU citizens successfully applied for settled status than were thought to have been in UK in 2016..

But..
3/

While the settled status issue may have increased “committed long term” stays...Brexit itself made seasonal work for young EUers not based all year round in the UK in the seasonally fluctuating hospitality industry more difficult.
4/

Thus Brexit may have actually engineered a perverse outcome:

It encouraged more EUers to formalize a longterm commitment to UK while simultaneously reducing the highly efficient system of seasonal work done in UK often by young EUers “popping in” to the UK.

In other words..
5/

So Brexit may have thus not actually decreased longterm immigration to the UK...

...but it did damage the hospitality sector through closed borders to such an extent the govt may have to set up a whole new easy work visa system to allow more seasonal workers in.

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More from @nicktolhurst

2 Jun
This is what will happen:

UK govt won’t run risk of Scotland or N Ireland leaving so Brexit must be shown to, at the very least, not to have been a disaster. The election is in 3 years away which means...Johnson will spend the next 3 years pumping money through the country.
Thing is UK been doing this already with furlough. This means lots of suppressed demand + johnsonian grand “ leveling up” projects & Brexit baubles while trade & industry stutters likely means higher inflation.

Which leads to..
3/

Inflation in this form is basically excess money in a slow growing economy and where do Brits put that..?

...in housing of course.
As always.

House price boosts is basically 80% of its core vote sorted so Johnson won’t mind that.
Read 7 tweets
31 May
I only really understood Britain when I moved to Germany.

I remember the penny drop moment when I met the richest, most educated Munich residents speaks with a Bavarian accent. Whereas in England Alexander Armstrong sounds like he comes from from Berkshire.
Interesting replies to this.
People either don’t get it or never thought about it before.

But the more you think about it the darker it gets.
The English class system doesn’t just iron out dialects - it transfer rich successful people out of their regional cultures.

It’s a...
3/

It’s almost a Darwinian cultural selection process.
I have a theory this also explains why so many English villages so much better than many English towns.
Local cultural regional pride of local elites is far weaker in England - as they literally don’t see themselves as such.
Read 5 tweets
24 May
+UPDATE+

Concern in Brussels that EU-UK ability to tackle common issues is actually "slowing down" post Brexit deal.

The expectation had been that once the "highly politicised" Brexit trade deal phase over relations would naturally improve.

2 reasons have been given for this..
2/

a) Post deal, the UK has actually stepped up its efforts to "bilateralise" its european dealings prompting EU counter reaction of insisting on full communication & thus delays diplomatic business. EU assumption is that this is part of UK strategy to deligitimise the EU.
3/

b) EU believes UK divergence strategy in its forthcoming trade deals combined with NI protocol rejection means that UK has not entirely given up idea of "cakeism" re single market access.
This means EU believes it has to scrutinise all relations with UK far more intensely.
Read 4 tweets
24 May
+UPDATE+

Canada has informed UK it expects the same “zero tariffs/zero quota” on agriculture as Australia is being offered if a trade deal is to be signed.

This would seem to confirm civil servants’ warnings that a trade precedent is being set that will destroy British farming.
2/

While Canada is a significant player in farm exports the real danger here is that it seems implausible the UK could resist giving the US a similar deal to that of Canada.

A chain reaction has thus been set off by the UK over which the British govt may no longer have control.
3/

At this stage, if the Australian trade deal goes ahead as signposted, it’s probably too late to stop this now.

The only really interesting thing will be under what SPS/health restrictions are these deals signed under....
Read 4 tweets
21 May
+UPDATE+

Boris Johnson's spokesman refuses to rule out accepting hormone-injected beef as part of a UK-Australia trade deal.
2/

If this is agreed then allother countries will be able to claim this as precedent.

This will have many subsidary effects.

a) UK farmers will have a legalised incentive to use hormones on their animals
3)

Also:

b) Countries which are able to keep non hormone & hormone food seperate will thus export non-hormone meat to places like Europe with stronger regulations & dump the hormone meat in the UK.

c) UK food will be harder to export to the EU as our food chain compromised
Read 4 tweets
19 May
+UPDATE+

UK civil servants have been tasked with costing a massive multi million farmer support program which will pay British farmers to switch out of farming and/or retire as ministers prepare for possible trade deal with Australia & New Zealand.
2/

For smaller family farms the govt has indicated it is considering going above “the £100 000 cap” on payments floated in 2020 as ministers concede a significant number of sheep/cattle farms’ business models will simply be wiped out if UK adopts zero tariffs/quotas as new base.
3/

The problem civil servants has raised with ministers is that if UK concedes a no tariff/quotas deal with 🇦🇺 & 🇳🇿 then other large countries with significant food exporting sectors like Brazil are likely to insist on this model as a precedent trade model with UK.
Read 7 tweets

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