Thread by @SRadnitz

Revealing Schemes is out! A brief summary...

@kennaninstitute @McFaul @edwardlucas @jillrussia @BBCSteveR @RidT @joannalillis @Peter__Leonard @wiczipedia @seansrussiablog @jenmercieca @BrendanNyhan @steveswerdlow @NathanKalmoe @ccaryl @williamjdobson @cjcmichel @KevinRothrock

Revealing Schemes regards conspiracy theories as a form of propaganda and asks why regimes promote them. Moving beyond the conventional wisdom about paranoid or tyrannical personal styles, it examines how conspiracy claims emerge from the dynamics of (post-Soviet) politics.

In a nutshell, I argue that conspiracy claims stem from: 1) political competition, which draws incumbents into fray; 2) destabilizing events, which must be publicly accounted for; and 3) geopolitics, which influences what is worth commenting on.

Incumbents tend to use conspiracy claims to signal strength by asserting knowledge and demonstrating prescience. But excessive conspiracism has drawbacks. It weakens credibility, signals weakness, and induces fatigue.

Using a new collection of 1,500+ #conspiracy claims sampled over a 20-year period (1995-2014), I identify patterns involving regimes, events, #geopolitics, and leaders. Here’s a fancy-looking snapshot of who accuses whom.

One case study chapter traces the use of conspiracy claims by the Kremlin + its proxies over 20 years, focusing on the 1996 election, #Beslan attack, 2005 pension reform protests, and #Euromaidan. Here’s a comparison of who gets accused in late Yeltsin vs. early #Putin years.

Another chapter looks closely at #Ukraine, #Kyrgyzstan, #Georgia, and #Belarus. It uses data analysis and narratives describing how and when CTs are likely to emerge. Here’s a comparison of who is accused there and how often.

Using surveys and focus groups of #Georgia and #Kazakhstan, I ask how people perceive CT-touting politicians, what they believe, and why. The book concludes with discussion of Turkey, Trump, and Russia’s export of CTs, and reflects on the future role of facts in democracies.

I had lots of help along the way, not least from a dozen intrepid research assistants over several years, who sifted through two decades of insinuations, invective, and quite a few fevered rants in the post-Soviet media. They sacrificed so that the rest of us may learn something.