Reflecting on Fauci emails, my biggest takeaway is degree to which overall dialogue on the pandemic was controlled & censored mostly by BigTech/Media. But also by the left, which has become increasingly & strangely anti-free speech. This isn’t “muh freedoms”…this cost lives
1/7
Things “we” weren’t allowed to discuss but turns out Fauci was discussing early ‘20
- lab leak
- focused protection (GBD)
- asymptomatic spread
- PCR
- masks ineffective
- aerosolized transm.
- virus already “past point of no return”
- seasonality
- risk contextualization
2/7
Had such topics been “permissible” to debate our disastrous monomaniacal interventions—which upended society & have proven anything but temporary—could've been tailored for greatest impact w the least harm/disruption. Instead, we shredded the societal fabric w/nothing to show
3/7
I fear this deeply entwined w/ “cancel culture.” Its absurd that I must be anonymous to dare suggest that uniform lockdowns of an entire healthy population including school closures might be unwise when the CDC itself acknowledges that 85 year-olds have 8,700x risk of kids 4/7
I've written before on T Kuran’s work on “preference falsification” & the unstable societies that r created when people must conceal their private views & preferences to the public. This is a cancer that is rotting society from the inside. The pandemic response is only 1 ex
5/7
George Washington said the “primary object should be the education of our youth in the science of government…what duty more pressing than communicating it to those who are to be future guardians of the liberties of the country”
6/7
The only educ. our youth received last year was in tyranny & they now have fewer liberties left to guard.
We are in unchartered territory & I remain fearful of the power of big tech/media to create future contagions (viral or otherwise) that can so easily derail society.
7/7
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Since my last “random backlog of covid musings” thread was popular, I thought I’d give it another shot. 22 quick thoughts/analogies/quotes/metaphors that I haven't had time to share previously:
1. The ppl who now claim it unreasonable to instantly give up masks & go back to work after 15 months of “new normal” r the same who scolded others for displaying any hesitation when forced to give-up an entire life’s work in Mar ’20 & embrace the criminalization of everyday life
2. The eagerness w which lockdown supporters are now embracing lab leak leads me to believe they view it as a scapegoat for why their abysmal policies didn’t work. ie NPIs/lockdowns would’ve stopped a natural virus but were no match for this manmade lab-freak. Don’t fall for it.
Why the sudden shift in mask guidance that surely marks the beginning of the end of COVID mania? It certainly isn't b/c the science changed. Its because society is completely broken and the status quo is unsustainable.
When running a stock portfolio, u are taught to reevaluate holdings each day & ask whether, if u had fresh $$ to invest, u would buy the same stocks u hold or whether you’re just hanging onto them b/c they’re already there.
We should ask ourselves the same about NPIs.
🧵
1/9
In behavioral finance, we call this status quo bias: people resist change even if change is prudent. Also associated w/ sunk cost fallacy (highly relevant to NPIs) & Kahneman’s work showing people feel greater regret for bad outcomes from new actions than from inaction.
2/9
Lockdowns & NPIs should be approached the same as ur portfolio. If anyone, even PH officials, stepped into our current world today, it would be objectively ridiculous to keep any current restrictions on schools, businesses, mask mandates, etc. CDC news today is a good start.
3/9
Digging through some old lockdown materials. This July 2020 UK government study estimated that lockdowns would kill ~90,000 in the UK. This is equivalent to ~440,000 Americans.
16,000 from missed emergency care,
26,000 care-home deaths due to neglect/neglected care,
12,500 to deferred preventative care,
1,400 to lost community health outreach,
18,000 to short-term economic hardship, &
16,000 to long-term economic hardship.
2/5
What did US/UK gain in the fight against COVID by sacrificing hundreds of thousands of citizens? ABSOLUTELY NOTHING.
Both the UK and US had worse COVID outcomes than no-lockdown / no-mask Sweden. 440,000 Americans and 90,000 in the UK killed for nothing.
I tweet little as a) I’m busy & b) I respect your time, for which I’m grateful. Been accumulating a bunch of thoughts, & its time to clear the backlog: 25 quick observations/quotes/analogs/history lessons. Something for all:
1.Milgram
Others have noted parallels of Milgram exprmnt & lockdown. Hwvr, what I haven’t seen noted is in Milgram 65% delivered deadly shocks to their subjects when in diff. rooms vs. 30% when in the same room. Lockdowners didn’t have to see the people whose lives they destroyed
2. LA Covid–Fermi Paradox
Look at below chart: LA hospitals barely reached ‘19 census at the peak in winter ‘21. We know hospitals operate at ~85% capacity, so they were never overwhelmed
Its like a 2020 version of Fermi Paradox: if there’s a pandemic where are all the patients?
Community Health—largest for-profit US hospital chain—reported “inpatient admissions for the year ended 12/31/20 decreased 15.7% compared to the year ended 12/31/19 & consolidated adjusted admissions for the year ended 12/31/20 decreased 19.4%” Because hospitals were overwhelmed?
But “our hospitals have not generally experienced major capacity constraints to date arising from the treatment of COVID-19 patients”
Acadia Healthcare—on the other hand—operates inpatient psych facilities, residential treatment centers, group homes & substance abuse facilities.
Its 4th qtr '20 earnings beat estimates by 63.8%, surging 121.6% year over year, and its stock has risen almost six-fold in the last year.
Unlike MSM narrative bullsh*t, its illegal to lie in financial statements. Money talks.