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@the_brumby

19 Apr

C19 MUSINGS BACKLOG

Been a while since I did a thread

I tweet little as a) I’m busy & b) I respect your time, for which I’m grateful. Been accumulating a bunch of thoughts, & its time to clear the backlog: 25 quick observations/quotes/analogs/history lessons. Something for all:

1.Milgram
Others have noted parallels of Milgram exprmnt & lockdown. Hwvr, what I haven’t seen noted is in Milgram 65% delivered deadly shocks to their subjects when in diff. rooms vs. 30% when in the same room. Lockdowners didn’t have to see the people whose lives they destroyed

2. LA Covid–Fermi Paradox
Look at below chart: LA hospitals barely reached ‘19 census at the peak in winter ‘21. We know hospitals operate at ~85% capacity, so they were never overwhelmed

Its like a 2020 version of Fermi Paradox: if there’s a pandemic where are all the patients?

Read 26 tweets

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9 Apr

Community Health—largest for-profit US hospital chain—reported “inpatient admissions for the year ended 12/31/20 decreased 15.7% compared to the year ended 12/31/19 & consolidated adjusted admissions for the year ended 12/31/20 decreased 19.4%” Because hospitals were overwhelmed?

But “our hospitals have not generally experienced major capacity constraints to date arising from the treatment of COVID-19 patients”

Acadia Healthcare—on the other hand—operates inpatient psych facilities, residential treatment centers, group homes & substance abuse facilities.

Its 4th qtr '20 earnings beat estimates by 63.8%, surging 121.6% year over year, and its stock has risen almost six-fold in the last year.

Unlike MSM narrative bullsh*t, its illegal to lie in financial statements. Money talks.

sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archiv…

sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archiv…

Read 4 tweets

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1 Apr

Short Thread on COVID Death Count

I know this is a difficult subj, so I will try to be respectful & simply present some data & ask some questions (which perhaps have answers)

Evidence #1 – many covid infections are asymptomatic (this paper ~93%)
rupress.org/jem/article/21…
1/15

Evidence #2 - Ok, but those were healthy young workers (19-59 in the study) and we know (well, most of us) that COVID attacks the elderly. Well this paper from the UK found 80.9% of nursing home residents that tested positive were also asymptomatic. gov.uk/government/pub…
2/15

Evidence #3 – PCR tests are EXTREMELY sensitive, so much so that even the NY Times found that 85-90% of positives are meaningless. nytimes.com/2020/08/29/hea…
3/15

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29 Mar

THE PANDEMIC TIMELINE IN TOP GUN GIFS

I know I have gathered my modest following here doing substantive tweets/threads. This one is fun and cathartic.

(1 of a quick 33)

1. A respiratory virus of unknown origin is detected in China

2. It seems to be spreading rapidly and is detected in other locales.

3. What should we do? We have a well-established plan: basically, keep your cool, don't panic, and try to keep a normal functioning society.

Read 33 tweets

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23 Mar

DOES BIG TECH LOVE BIG LOCKDOWN?

A bit about the lockdown economy & why it may appear that, despite many businesses being decimated, others (including the economy as a whole) seem in no hurry to exit. With public co’s having reported, we can now look back on 2020 in full.
1/13

For my non-finance followers, 1 thing to understand is the economy—like a stock index—is effectively capitalization-weighted. This means the biggest companies have the most impact & the smallest are mostly irrelevant, both w/r/t econ metrics & co’s influence on gov/policy
2/13

Below is a good visual of what I mean using the S&P500. The 5 biggest companies have a weighting equal to the bottom 350. So you can barely see a company like General Motors worth $75B, let alone a local shop that—pre-lockdown—made $75k/yr & might be worth $1m (if public).
3/13

Read 14 tweets

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17 Mar

1 yr ago today, Dr. Ioannidis wrote the below. I read it that day, agreed with nearly every word, and still do. Worth revisiting in full, but I’ve captured a few key quotes below along with my own commentary

My favorite, which sums up the last yr:
1/8
statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-f…

“we dont know how long social distancing measures and lockdowns can be maintained without major consequences to the economy, society, and mental health. Unpredictable evolutions may ensue, including financial crisis, unrest, civil strife, war, and a meltdown of the social fabric”

“How long, though, should measures like these be continued if the pandemic churns across the globe unabated”

I’d love to know. We never should have implemented such devastating & unprecedented “temporary” measures without defined exit criteria.
3/8

Read 8 tweets

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