Brumby Profile picture
9 Apr, 4 tweets, 1 min read
Community Health—largest for-profit US hospital chain—reported “inpatient admissions for the year ended 12/31/20 decreased 15.7% compared to the year ended 12/31/19 & consolidated adjusted admissions for the year ended 12/31/20 decreased 19.4%” Because hospitals were overwhelmed?
But “our hospitals have not generally experienced major capacity constraints to date arising from the treatment of COVID-19 patients”

Acadia Healthcare—on the other hand—operates inpatient psych facilities, residential treatment centers, group homes & substance abuse facilities.
Its 4th qtr '20 earnings beat estimates by 63.8%, surging 121.6% year over year, and its stock has risen almost six-fold in the last year.

Unlike MSM narrative bullsh*t, its illegal to lie in financial statements. Money talks.

sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archiv…

sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archiv…
Largest public hospital chains & respective DROPS in admissions & adjusted admissions (capturing inpatient/outpatient) in 2020:

1. Community Health – 15.7%/19.4%
2. Hospital Corp of America – 4.7%/9.2%
3. Tenet Healthcare – 11.6%/15.7%
4. Universal Health Services – 9.9%/15.2%

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More from @the_brumby

1 Apr
Short Thread on COVID Death Count

I know this is a difficult subj, so I will try to be respectful & simply present some data & ask some questions (which perhaps have answers)

Evidence #1 – many covid infections are asymptomatic (this paper ~93%)
rupress.org/jem/article/21…
1/15
Evidence #2 - Ok, but those were healthy young workers (19-59 in the study) and we know (well, most of us) that COVID attacks the elderly. Well this paper from the UK found 80.9% of nursing home residents that tested positive were also asymptomatic. gov.uk/government/pub…
2/15
Evidence #3 – PCR tests are EXTREMELY sensitive, so much so that even the NY Times found that 85-90% of positives are meaningless. nytimes.com/2020/08/29/hea…
3/15
Read 15 tweets
29 Mar
THE PANDEMIC TIMELINE IN TOP GUN GIFS

I know I have gathered my modest following here doing substantive tweets/threads. This one is fun and cathartic.

(1 of a quick 33)

1. A respiratory virus of unknown origin is detected in China
2. It seems to be spreading rapidly and is detected in other locales.
3. What should we do? We have a well-established plan: basically, keep your cool, don't panic, and try to keep a normal functioning society.
Read 33 tweets
23 Mar
DOES BIG TECH LOVE BIG LOCKDOWN?

A bit about the lockdown economy & why it may appear that, despite many businesses being decimated, others (including the economy as a whole) seem in no hurry to exit. With public co’s having reported, we can now look back on 2020 in full.
1/13
For my non-finance followers, 1 thing to understand is the economy—like a stock index—is effectively capitalization-weighted. This means the biggest companies have the most impact & the smallest are mostly irrelevant, both w/r/t econ metrics & co’s influence on gov/policy
2/13
Below is a good visual of what I mean using the S&P500. The 5 biggest companies have a weighting equal to the bottom 350. So you can barely see a company like General Motors worth $75B, let alone a local shop that—pre-lockdown—made $75k/yr & might be worth $1m (if public).
3/13
Read 14 tweets
17 Mar
1 yr ago today, Dr. Ioannidis wrote the below. I read it that day, agreed with nearly every word, and still do. Worth revisiting in full, but I’ve captured a few key quotes below along with my own commentary

My favorite, which sums up the last yr:
1/8
statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-f…
“we dont know how long social distancing measures and lockdowns can be maintained without major consequences to the economy, society, and mental health. Unpredictable evolutions may ensue, including financial crisis, unrest, civil strife, war, and a meltdown of the social fabric”
“How long, though, should measures like these be continued if the pandemic churns across the globe unabated”

I’d love to know. We never should have implemented such devastating & unprecedented “temporary” measures without defined exit criteria.
3/8
Read 8 tweets
8 Mar
Short Lockdown Economic Update:

A revised look at who gets to work from home. Remember this the next time someone says "if only people would just listen"
Total US salaries & wages have surpassed pre-pandemic levels, except there are now 9.5 million fewer people w jobs.

How is that possible? Simple: the rich got richer while the poor got poorer. This is the inverse of what most lockdown supporters profess to desire in society.
Those earning >$85k were never impacted by job losses. Those earning <$30k on the other hand nearly hit 40% unemployment in April and are still ~15%. For comparison, unemployment hit 10% in the financial crisis. Note the rate for this group tanked again during winter lockdowns.
Read 5 tweets
2 Mar
Statements like this from Pfizer remind me of Warren Buffett's quip "Don't ask the barber whether you need a haircut."

(1/6)
Pfizer has said it expects $15 billion in 2021 revenue attributable to its COVID vax. For comparison, its total 2020 revenue was ~$42 billion, with its best-selling product Prevnar 13 (introduced 10 years ago) contributing just under $6 billion.

(2/6)
So the COVID vax will instantly become Pfizer's best selling product by 2.5 times and represent a ~35% increase in total company gross revenue. For a 170-year old stodgy $200B market cap company, that is other-worldly growth.

(3/6)
Read 6 tweets

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