Brumby Profile picture
14 May, 10 tweets, 3 min read
Why the sudden shift in mask guidance that surely marks the beginning of the end of COVID mania? It certainly isn't b/c the science changed. Its because society is completely broken and the status quo is unsustainable.

1. People are voting with their feet for freedom:

2. Cities are collapsing without office workers
3. Leading to rampant crime…
4. Crushing small businesses at the expense of large businesses
5. Which exacerbates racial inequality:
6. And wealth inequality:
7. Rents are in free fall:
8. As business closures have wreaked havoc:
9. And the deficit to GDP is now the 2nd highest ever, going back over 225 years, further screwing over kids as if they hadn't been enough already over the last year:
10. Oh and the prior vax messaging was a disaster (get the vax so that your life will STILL suck!), mask mandates didn't do anything anyway, and neither did lockdowns. So this was all for nothing.

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More from @the_brumby

13 May
When running a stock portfolio, u are taught to reevaluate holdings each day & ask whether, if u had fresh $$ to invest, u would buy the same stocks u hold or whether you’re just hanging onto them b/c they’re already there.

We should ask ourselves the same about NPIs.

In behavioral finance, we call this status quo bias: people resist change even if change is prudent. Also associated w/ sunk cost fallacy (highly relevant to NPIs) & Kahneman’s work showing people feel greater regret for bad outcomes from new actions than from inaction.

Lockdowns & NPIs should be approached the same as ur portfolio. If anyone, even PH officials, stepped into our current world today, it would be objectively ridiculous to keep any current restrictions on schools, businesses, mask mandates, etc. CDC news today is a good start.

Read 9 tweets
11 May
Digging through some old lockdown materials. This July 2020 UK government study estimated that lockdowns would kill ~90,000 in the UK. This is equivalent to ~440,000 Americans.

16,000 from missed emergency care,
26,000 care-home deaths due to neglect/neglected care,
12,500 to deferred preventative care,
1,400 to lost community health outreach,
18,000 to short-term economic hardship, &
16,000 to long-term economic hardship.

What did US/UK gain in the fight against COVID by sacrificing hundreds of thousands of citizens? ABSOLUTELY NOTHING.

Both the UK and US had worse COVID outcomes than no-lockdown / no-mask Sweden. 440,000 Americans and 90,000 in the UK killed for nothing.

Read 5 tweets
19 Apr

Been a while since I did a thread

I tweet little as a) I’m busy & b) I respect your time, for which I’m grateful. Been accumulating a bunch of thoughts, & its time to clear the backlog: 25 quick observations/quotes/analogs/history lessons. Something for all:
Others have noted parallels of Milgram exprmnt & lockdown. Hwvr, what I haven’t seen noted is in Milgram 65% delivered deadly shocks to their subjects when in diff. rooms vs. 30% when in the same room. Lockdowners didn’t have to see the people whose lives they destroyed
2. LA Covid–Fermi Paradox
Look at below chart: LA hospitals barely reached ‘19 census at the peak in winter ‘21. We know hospitals operate at ~85% capacity, so they were never overwhelmed

Its like a 2020 version of Fermi Paradox: if there’s a pandemic where are all the patients?
Read 26 tweets
9 Apr
Community Health—largest for-profit US hospital chain—reported “inpatient admissions for the year ended 12/31/20 decreased 15.7% compared to the year ended 12/31/19 & consolidated adjusted admissions for the year ended 12/31/20 decreased 19.4%” Because hospitals were overwhelmed?
But “our hospitals have not generally experienced major capacity constraints to date arising from the treatment of COVID-19 patients”

Acadia Healthcare—on the other hand—operates inpatient psych facilities, residential treatment centers, group homes & substance abuse facilities.
Its 4th qtr '20 earnings beat estimates by 63.8%, surging 121.6% year over year, and its stock has risen almost six-fold in the last year.

Unlike MSM narrative bullsh*t, its illegal to lie in financial statements. Money talks.……
Read 4 tweets
1 Apr
Short Thread on COVID Death Count

I know this is a difficult subj, so I will try to be respectful & simply present some data & ask some questions (which perhaps have answers)

Evidence #1 – many covid infections are asymptomatic (this paper ~93%)…
Evidence #2 - Ok, but those were healthy young workers (19-59 in the study) and we know (well, most of us) that COVID attacks the elderly. Well this paper from the UK found 80.9% of nursing home residents that tested positive were also asymptomatic.…
Evidence #3 – PCR tests are EXTREMELY sensitive, so much so that even the NY Times found that 85-90% of positives are meaningless.…
Read 15 tweets
29 Mar

I know I have gathered my modest following here doing substantive tweets/threads. This one is fun and cathartic.

(1 of a quick 33)

1. A respiratory virus of unknown origin is detected in China
2. It seems to be spreading rapidly and is detected in other locales.
3. What should we do? We have a well-established plan: basically, keep your cool, don't panic, and try to keep a normal functioning society.
Read 33 tweets

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