Ridhwaan Suliman Profile picture
Jun 7, 2021 β€’ 6 tweets β€’ 3 min read β€’ Read on X
Provincial update #COVID19 in South Africa πŸ‡ΏπŸ‡¦

Here's a look at the key metrics of case incidence and test positivity rate per province in South Africa πŸ“Š

Quite a lot going on between the provinces, so I'll make this a thread πŸ‘‡
Let's start with good news!

Northern Cape and Free State showing promising signs of a decline. Both are still at very high case incidence rates,so certainly not out of the woods yet πŸ“‰

NC case incidence rose up to 1.5 times previous peak.
FS went up to 90% of 2nd wave's peak πŸŒ„
Gauteng is most concerning at the moment 🚩

Average of 2,531 cases/day over the past week; 52% of total cases in SA ⬆️

Cases in GP currently doubling every 2 weeks πŸ“ˆ

Hospital admissions also increasing, up +30% week-on-week. More deaths being reported now too ⚠️
Western Cape cases starting to increase faster now too! 401 cases/day over past week, up 31% week-on-week. Case incidence up to 12% of it's 2nd wave peak πŸ“ˆ

Mpumalanga also rising, cases up 19% compared to a week ago. Case incidence now up to 19% of it's previous peak πŸ“ˆ
Limpopo, Eastern Cape, and KwaZulu Natal still at low case incidence rates, however all are increasing sharply ⬆️

Limpopo most concerning of these, with cases up 81% week-on-week 🚩

Eastern Cape up 41% and KwaZulu Natal up 26% πŸ“ˆ
Test positivity rates per province in South Africa confirm the trend in cases shown above πŸ“Š

NC down slightly but still high at 22% πŸ“‰
FS, NW, GP, MP, and LP all above 10% 🚩
WC above 5% and EC approaching 5% πŸ“ˆ

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More from @rid1tweets

Aug 1, 2022
I'm back with another tweet on #COVID19 in South AfricaπŸ‡ΏπŸ‡¦ (that hiatus didn't last long) πŸ˜…
A lot of questions about whether it's the right decision to stop reporting daily #SARSCoV2 data in SA?
I believe it is, for a few reasons... [Thread] 🧡
1. Yes #SARSCoV2 is still around, and won't magically disappear, but the risk of severe disease and death has reduced significantly, primarily due to high levels of population immunity in the country.
Graph of reported and in-hospital #COVID19 deaths in SAπŸ‡ΏπŸ‡¦ shown below:
2. Testing has declined substantially, and so case numbers and even test % positivity have become unreliable as a true reflection of actual #COVID19 infection rates.
An ONS-style randomised infection survey as done in the UKπŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ would be useful, but we don't have such here in SAπŸ‡ΏπŸ‡¦
Read 4 tweets
Jun 14, 2022
Thread.. 🧡
I have received a lot of questions about #COVID19 deaths in South Africa πŸ‡ΏπŸ‡¦

Here's a graph showing the different metrics of mortality: reported #COVID19 deaths, in-hospital #Covid_19 deaths, and excess deaths over the course of the pandemic :

1/n
There have been 1,274 total deaths reported over this BA.4/BA.5 or 5th wave of #COVID19 in South Africa πŸ‡ΏπŸ‡¦

This is just over one-fifth (21.5%) of the 5,923 cumulative deaths reported over previous Omicron BA.1 wave over the summer months & significantly less than previous waves
Reporting of #COVID19 deaths in South AfricaπŸ‡ΏπŸ‡¦ are laggy and under-estimated. Since the Omicron BA.1 wave, NDoH has been conducting audit exercises and reporting backlogs but unfortunately provide no context as to when those deaths actually occurred nor make that data availableπŸ€·β€β™‚οΈ
Read 11 tweets
May 25, 2022
[Thread] One more, hopefully last, update of latest #COVID19 indicators for Omicron BA.4 & BA.5 -driven #5thWave in Gauteng, South Africa πŸ‡ΏπŸ‡¦

TL;DR :
- Cases declining πŸ“‰
- Test % positivity declining πŸ“‰
- Hospitalisations peaked πŸ™Œ
- Deaths low and slowing 🀞

Thread 🧡.. 1/6
With new #COVID19 cases in GautengπŸ‡ΏπŸ‡¦ having peaked recently, promisingly cases didn't plateau but well on the decline now πŸ“‰

Current 7-day rolling avg at 1,609 or 10.2 per 100k, down 39% week-on-week and already down to 51% of recent peak πŸ‘

2/6
Latest #COVID19 test % positivity in GautengπŸ‡ΏπŸ‡¦ for week ending 21 May = 19.6% πŸ“‰

Testing has remained low, understandably, so test % positivity is naturally higher but after peaking it has continued to decline, confirming the decline in infections πŸ‘

3/6
Read 6 tweets
May 12, 2022
[Thread] Update of #COVID19 numbers in GautengπŸ‡ΏπŸ‡¦

Here's an update of the latest #COVID19 indicators in GautengπŸ‡ΏπŸ‡¦, where Omicron sublineages BA.4 & BA.5 are driving a 5th wave of infections

Spoiler: continued decoupling; hospitalisations and deaths remain low...

Thread 🧡 ../6
3,484 new #COVID19 cases reported in Gauteng πŸ‡ΏπŸ‡¦ today, 7-day rolling avg at 3,105 πŸ“ˆ

Case incidence = 19.1 per 100k population, and up to 29% of BA.1 peak πŸ”οΈ

Case rate up 27% compared to a week ago, but even though testing remains low it's showing signs of slowing again 🧐

2/6
Latest test % positivity in GautengπŸ‡ΏπŸ‡¦ for week ending 7 May = 26.2% 🚩

Testing remains significantly lower than before, not surprising... But while test % positivity is very high (1 in ~4 tests positive), it too appears to be flattening 🀞

3/6
Read 6 tweets
Apr 27, 2022
[Thread] Update of #COVID19 numbers in Gauteng πŸ‡ΏπŸ‡¦

Gauteng, with ~25% of SA's population, is once again the epicentre of a resurgence of #Covid_19 in South Africa πŸ‡ΏπŸ‡¦

A surge in infection rates, increasing demand on hospitalisations, reported deaths remain low...

Thread 🧡 ../n
Another 3,145 #COVID19 cases reported in Gauteng πŸ‡ΏπŸ‡¦ today, 7-day rolling avg at 2,117 ⬆️

Case incidence = 13.4 per 100k population, up to 20% of recent peak πŸ”οΈ

Case rate up 173% week-on-week or currently doubling every 4.8 days πŸ“ˆ

2/n
Latest test % positivity in GautengπŸ‡ΏπŸ‡¦ for week ending 23 Apr = 20.2% 🚩

Not surprising given fewer people testing, but increase is steep, up from 11.9% a week prior. With 1 in every 5 tests returning a positive result, it also indicates many more cases going undetected 🧐

3/n
Read 7 tweets
Dec 8, 2021
[Thread] An update of the #Omicron -driven #4thWave of #COVID19 in GAUTENG πŸ‡ΏπŸ‡¦

First, a summary of current indicators:


1/n
Switching to log scale here to understand the exponential growth of #COVID19 cases in Gauteng πŸ‡ΏπŸ‡¦



2/6
Early indications that #COVID19 cases in Gauteng may have passed an inflection point.

What is an inflection point:


3/6
Read 6 tweets

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