Troubling—the worst variant to date, the #DeltaVariant is now the new fastest growing variant in US. This is the so-called “Indian” variant #B16172 that is ravaging UK 🇬🇧 despite high vaccinations because it has immune evasion properties. Here is why it’s trouble—🧵. #COVID19
2) We are expecting the #DeltaVariant to continue growing in the US, outpacing all other variants just like it has in India 🇮🇳 and UK 🇬🇧, and become dominant in US by end of July, if not earlier.
4) the #DeltaVariant#B16172 is worrisome because study after study shows it has one of the worst antibody neutralization profiles against the current vaccines. Here it is against the Pfizer vaccine - one of the best vaccines for variants to date. 1st dose very little effect.
6) Also notice how neutralization is much weaker in the elderly—but #B16172#DeltaVariant is so bad that the neutralization in young adults (~20s) for Delta is even lower than neutralization in the elderly against the old strain! With Delta, you start like an 60-70 year old! 👀
7) Keep in mind that the #DeltaVariant#B16172 has been observed to also attack kids more than before. Here is Singapore’s warning.
10) why? Because the latest UK expert report says the #DeltaVariant leads to ~2.5x more hospitalizations than the #B117#AlphaVariant. And B117 Alpha itself is more severe than original strain too!!
11) thus how much worse is #DeltaVariant? if Delta has ~2.5x ⬆️ hospitalization risk versus #B117#AlphaVariant, which is 64% more severe than original earlier strain. Then 1.64*2.5= #Delta could have *4.1x* higher risk of hospitalization vs original! 👀
12) Does anyone honestly think the US or any country is going to do that much better than the UK 🇬🇧 which is also heavily vaccinated? Because this is #DeltaVariant grow speed in the Uk 🇬🇧
14) But but but, don’t we have good vaccines? Yes, but vaccination rates are not uniformly high everywhere in the Us. The conservative South has serious issues with low vaccination rates. Very low… see thread 🧵
15) That said, #DeltaVariant#B16172 is potentially tricker yielding a substantial jump down on the virus neutralization ladder according to studies. Because it has a lower starting neutralization, the efficacy drop can be substantial. Hence why 1 dose isn’t enough.
16) So what is the vaccine efficacy against #B16172#DeltaVariant? It’s just 60% for AstraZeneca, while 88% of Pfizer in one non-trial study. However, 1 dose (of both averaged) is just 33%. And many countries are just 1 dose vaccinated.
17) But is that enough against the #DeltaVariant? Well there’s only one country in Europe were Delta is dominant? Hint - it’s the one with the surge in cases, and also rising hospitalizations….
18) And given we know the #DeltaVariant is both more transmissible and severe (see above), the question is - is it more severe also in kids? It’s an open debate, but there are many reports from India 🇮🇳 that the #DeltaVariant might be….
20) I feel that ignoring the risks in kids has been one of the biggest blunders of many Covid denialist and minimizer scientists (after ignoring airborne). So many scientists ignored the risks in kids. History will remember who they are / were.
21) The #DeltaVariant is now causing an “exponential” rise in hospital admissions in the UK 🇬🇧— despite decent vaccination rates in UK. This means we can’t stop vaccinations until we hit 80% fully vaccinated. Until then we are vulnerable still as a society.
23) This is now the #DeltaVariant growing crisis in the UK 🇬🇧 and how they missed the creeping up numbers originally. Don’t let this happen in your country. Let UK and India be a lesson to all.
24) politicians often act too late. Scientists often too shy to shout from the roof tops early…. What you get is inaction by politicians & slow vocalization by scientists until too late.
We need to sometimes raise the alarm— because there is a critical need for early action.🙏
25) Today is a good day for the CDC to upgrade #DeltaVariant to VARIANT OF CONCERN status…
Concerning—CDC now says that 42 states are seeing rising rates of #COVID19 again—with levels high or very high in 35 states (and rising). COVID wastewater levels have already surpassed last summer’s peak and climbing fast. #CovidIsNotOver cdc.gov/forecast-outbr…
2) Substantial 28% increase in one week. Question is how high it will go. It’s a new variant (mostly KP2 and KP3 and JN1), which are evasive against past infection and past vaccines.
A girl using cover name JANE DOE testified under oath at Ghislaine Maxwell’s criminal trial that she was introduced to Trump by Jeffrey Epstein when she was 14 years old. Pass it on.
Trump’s name appears 7 times in Epstein’s latest files. They regularly called each other according to phone logs. Trump says Epstein is a “terrific guy”. And he traveled on flights, according to logs, to Epstein’s island multiple times.
3) THIS STUFF IS NEW—not old Epstein-Trump info. New information regarding Epstein's child trafficking activities was released 7/2/24. Documents from 2016 are now out of date and do not show the depth of Trump's dealings with Epstein... READ MORE:
Reminder—Trump had expressed executing people on many occasions while President, according to his own Attorney General. Now the Supreme Court has green lit any official act with full presidential immunity. Germany did the same in 1933. It turned out great.
2) If we ignore history, we are bound to repeat it. How Germany became Nazi Germany in 1933….
📍 The New York Times Is Failing Its Readers Badly on Covid
📌“Example of ‘science opinion’ run amok in the [NY Times] is a piece… by Zeynep Tufekci, a commentator with no training in biological science or epidemiology… ➡️Tufekci plays into the hands of the anti-science politicians who now seek vengeance on the flimsiest of grounds.”
2) “Tufekci also adds to the ongoing pile-on about whether the directive to maintain a distance of six feet from others was needed. Although the precise distance was indeed somewhat arbitrary, there was no possibility of obtaining hard data in the relevant time frame. The six-foot distance was a reasonable assumption based on public health history, and the practice of social distancing for other respiratory pathogens, particularly those spread by droplets. It was also adopted in multiple other countries, for the same reasons.”
3) “The problem here isn’t that Tufekci is questioning the evidentiary basis of the six-foot rule—science and public health cannot progress if we don’t evaluate the results of our work. But that progress is more effective when grounded in good-faith inquiry, rather than the kinds of attacks Tufekci levels against government scientists for doing their best in desperate circumstances. This only serves to bolster the forces who seek to destroy the US public health infrastructure, not make it better.
Tufekci also leaves the impression that she alone realized SARS-CoV-2 was airborne early on. In fact, the debate about transmission was fast and furious within the scientific community at that time”
⚠️Whooping cough has smashed all records in UK🇬🇧 with barely any serious govt actions. These are NEW CASES PER WEEK, not cumulative. Each week smashing previous. Other countries rising too amid anti-vax. Pertussis is also airborne!
3) Whooping cough is also extremely contagious. For up to 3 weeks. With UK govt advising staying home for 3 full weeks if no antibiotic treatment. How many people being told that and doing that?