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Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
@DrEricDing
Jun 8, 2021 • 25 tweets • 16 min read • Read on X
Troubling—the worst variant to date, the #DeltaVariant is now the new fastest growing variant in US. This is the so-called “Indian” variant #B16172 that is ravaging UK 🇬🇧 despite high vaccinations because it has immune evasion properties. Here is why it’s trouble—🧵. #COVID19 Image
2) We are expecting the #DeltaVariant to continue growing in the US, outpacing all other variants just like it has in India 🇮🇳 and UK 🇬🇧, and become dominant in US by end of July, if not earlier.

Here is the prediction track - via @TWenseleers from @GISAID data. Image
3) here was how it overtook everything in the UK 🇬🇧— it will happen soon in the US as well.
4) the #DeltaVariant #B16172 is worrisome because study after study shows it has one of the worst antibody neutralization profiles against the current vaccines. Here it is against the Pfizer vaccine - one of the best vaccines for variants to date. 1st dose very little effect.
5) First dose alone wholly inadequate against #B16172 #DeltaVariant, in contrast to original strain (wild type)
6) Also notice how neutralization is much weaker in the elderly—but #B16172 #DeltaVariant is so bad that the neutralization in young adults (~20s) for Delta is even lower than neutralization in the elderly against the old strain! With Delta, you start like an 60-70 year old! 👀 Image
7) Keep in mind that the #DeltaVariant #B16172 has been observed to also attack kids more than before. Here is Singapore’s warning.
8) this is what #B16172 #DeltaVariant is doing to kids in NW England 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿- many kids under 12 also not eligible for vaccines yet. Image
9) Despite UK being one of the most vaccinated countries…. @IndependentSage experts are still warning about a surge with the #DeltaVariant
10) why? Because the latest UK expert report says the #DeltaVariant leads to ~2.5x more hospitalizations than the #B117 #AlphaVariant. And B117 Alpha itself is more severe than original strain too!!
11) thus how much worse is #DeltaVariant? if Delta has ~2.5x ⬆️ hospitalization risk versus #B117 #AlphaVariant, which is 64% more severe than original earlier strain. Then 1.64*2.5= #Delta could have *4.1x* higher risk of hospitalization vs original! 👀

12) Does anyone honestly think the US or any country is going to do that much better than the UK 🇬🇧 which is also heavily vaccinated? Because this is #DeltaVariant grow speed in the Uk 🇬🇧
13) what’s coming next for the UK 🇬🇧. Let’s not follow Boris Johnson’s footsteps
14) But but but, don’t we have good vaccines? Yes, but vaccination rates are not uniformly high everywhere in the Us. The conservative South has serious issues with low vaccination rates. Very low… see thread 🧵
15) That said, #DeltaVariant #B16172 is potentially tricker yielding a substantial jump down on the virus neutralization ladder according to studies. Because it has a lower starting neutralization, the efficacy drop can be substantial. Hence why 1 dose isn’t enough. Image
16) So what is the vaccine efficacy against #B16172 #DeltaVariant? It’s just 60% for AstraZeneca, while 88% of Pfizer in one non-trial study. However, 1 dose (of both averaged) is just 33%. And many countries are just 1 dose vaccinated.
17) But is that enough against the #DeltaVariant? Well there’s only one country in Europe were Delta is dominant? Hint - it’s the one with the surge in cases, and also rising hospitalizations….
18) And given we know the #DeltaVariant is both more transmissible and severe (see above), the question is - is it more severe also in kids? It’s an open debate, but there are many reports from India 🇮🇳 that the #DeltaVariant might be….
19) And if I have to hear one more person say “But but but kids don’t transmit”… they are dead wrong. Oh and kids also get #LongCovid too.
20) I feel that ignoring the risks in kids has been one of the biggest blunders of many Covid denialist and minimizer scientists (after ignoring airborne). So many scientists ignored the risks in kids. History will remember who they are / were.
21) The #DeltaVariant is now causing an “exponential” rise in hospital admissions in the UK 🇬🇧— despite decent vaccination rates in UK. This means we can’t stop vaccinations until we hit 80% fully vaccinated. Until then we are vulnerable still as a society.
22) Dr Fauci agrees that 1 dose is not enough protection for the #DeltaVariant #B161712.
23) This is now the #DeltaVariant growing crisis in the UK 🇬🇧 and how they missed the creeping up numbers originally. Don’t let this happen in your country. Let UK and India be a lesson to all.
24) politicians often act too late. Scientists often too shy to shout from the roof tops early…. What you get is inaction by politicians & slow vocalization by scientists until too late.

We need to sometimes raise the alarm— because there is a critical need for early action.🙏 Image
25) Today is a good day for the CDC to upgrade #DeltaVariant to VARIANT OF CONCERN status…

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More from @DrEricDing

Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Apr 24
Testing conducted by the FDA on pasteurized commercially purchased milk has found genetic evidence of the H5N1 bird flu virus. ➡️But the testing, done by PCR cannot distinguish between live virus or fragments of viruses that could have been killed by the pasteurization process.

The FDA said it has been trying to see if it could grow virus from milk found to contain evidence of H5N1, which is the gold standard test to see if there is viable virus in a product. 📌The FDA *does NOT explicitly say FDA laboratories were unable to find live virus in the milk samples, but nevertheless it does state that its belief that commercial, pasteurized milk is safe to consume has not been altered by these findings.

(Sound familiar? Just like blanket assuming a virus “isn’t airborne”, “cannot transmit without symptoms”, “no human to human transmission” errors during COVID). That said, I will am hopeful that no live virus will be found in confirmation. But let’s be precautious.
statnews.com/2024/04/23/h5n…Image
2) PPE and safety googles or face shield recommended for dairy farmers and anyone handling raw milk 🥛. Also they warn about poor fitting respirators for children (who may work near dairy— like I used to help on a dairy farm as a kid in rural Pa). Image
3) people working with cattle 🐄 should also “avoid eating drinking smoking chewing gum in contaminated areas or touching eyes.” And people exposed should wear PPE should be monitored for symptoms for 10 days. Image
Read 10 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Apr 13
📈Measles epidemic trajectory is worsening in the U.S.—it has NOT flattened as some claimed. The surge continues—comparison of newest versus recent outbreak graph. Majority are unvaccinated, but there’s enough unvaccinated in many clusters for outbreaks.
cnn.com/health/measles…

Image
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2) here is another way to visualize the measles epidemic. Another annoying thing is that although 95% not double vaccinated, 5% of the previous 113 cases were vaccinated— which means that there is waning immunity or vaccine breakthrough with sufficiently big outbreak possible.
3) I specifically wanted about this issue that pockets of unvaccinated could still trigger outbreaks, and vaccine breakthroughs possible due to vaccine waning & if surrounded by pockets of low vaccinations. See my warning oped below. 👇
Read 6 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Apr 10
🐄—"Experts fear that H5N1 avian flu… may have been transmitted through a type of cattle feed called “poultry litter”—mix of poultry poop, spilled feed, feathers, and other waste scraped from the floors of industrial chicken and turkey production plants."
telegraph.co.uk/global-health/…
Europe does not allow cattle to be fed poultry feed. US does. This helps explain why US is seeing a cow outbreak of avian flu.
3) CDC warns against chicken and bird exposures and direct contact with poop. Yet why the hell are we feeding cattle poultry litter??? Corporate farms are so stupid and greedy.
Read 12 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Apr 9
Global CO2 levels and temperatures. But but but we scientists are merely “fear mongering” according to deniers. How about just facing reality? How about precautionary warnings to protect human lives?

@ed_hawkins @MrMatthewTodd #climatecrisis Image
Oh this seems totally fine.
Image
I think we are screwed at this point on limiting temperature rise by 1.5 C. It’ll still take a miracle to avoid 2 C.
Read 5 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Apr 8
📍BIRD HUNTING AVIAN FLU DEATH—WHO reports that a 21 year old young man with no underlying conditions suddenly died of #avianflu in Vietnam. He started with a cough/fever, but died 12 days later with severe pneumonia and ARDS. ➡️He had only gone bird hunting recently. BE CAREFUL.
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2) "From 2003 to 25 March 2024, a total of 888 worldwide human cases of influenza A(H5N1), 463 deaths (52% CFR), reported to WHO from 23 countries. Almost all cases of human infection with avian influenza A(H5N1) linked to close contact with infected live or dead birds, or contaminated environments."
who.int/emergencies/di…
3) It is interesting that WHO had to point out he had no contact with any sick or dead birds. Only hunting. And he had gone bird hunting the prior month in Feb 2024. And no other contact with people since. The latency period seems rather long.
Read 8 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Apr 6
⚠️SPIKE IN MEASLES—113 cases of US measles in Q1 of 2024, double the total for all of 2023. 📍95% of the cases were in those without 2 full doses of MMR💉vaccine (83% cases without any confirmed shots). Across 18 states—top 2 states are Illinois & Florida. 58% of all cases got hospitalized🏥—66% of infected kids <5 years old hospitalized. 61% of adults 20+ hospitalized. Please take measles seriously. Don’t listen to RFK Jr.
cdc.gov/measles/cases-…Image
Image
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2) Moreover, many of the nationwide cases had come from Florida— “Measles cases that turned up in at least three states this year were linked to visits to Florida, federal and state investigators concluded”. FL also doesn’t count non-residents as cases.🤦🏻‍♂️

cbsnews.com/amp/news/measl…
3) I wrote a long WARNING last month about measles surging in the U.S. — we are not addressing the crisis. Florida measles crisis is just a bell weather. And now here we are.

Please take a moment to read— 👇

With @kavitapmd @yaneerbaryam

ca.news.yahoo.com/florida-measle…
Read 6 tweets

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