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Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
@DrEricDing
Jun 8, 2021 • 25 tweets • 16 min read • Read on X
Troubling—the worst variant to date, the #DeltaVariant is now the new fastest growing variant in US. This is the so-called “Indian” variant #B16172 that is ravaging UK 🇬🇧 despite high vaccinations because it has immune evasion properties. Here is why it’s trouble—🧵. #COVID19 Image
2) We are expecting the #DeltaVariant to continue growing in the US, outpacing all other variants just like it has in India 🇮🇳 and UK 🇬🇧, and become dominant in US by end of July, if not earlier.

Here is the prediction track - via @TWenseleers from @GISAID data. Image
3) here was how it overtook everything in the UK 🇬🇧— it will happen soon in the US as well.
4) the #DeltaVariant #B16172 is worrisome because study after study shows it has one of the worst antibody neutralization profiles against the current vaccines. Here it is against the Pfizer vaccine - one of the best vaccines for variants to date. 1st dose very little effect.
5) First dose alone wholly inadequate against #B16172 #DeltaVariant, in contrast to original strain (wild type)
6) Also notice how neutralization is much weaker in the elderly—but #B16172 #DeltaVariant is so bad that the neutralization in young adults (~20s) for Delta is even lower than neutralization in the elderly against the old strain! With Delta, you start like an 60-70 year old! 👀 Image
7) Keep in mind that the #DeltaVariant #B16172 has been observed to also attack kids more than before. Here is Singapore’s warning.
8) this is what #B16172 #DeltaVariant is doing to kids in NW England 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿- many kids under 12 also not eligible for vaccines yet. Image
9) Despite UK being one of the most vaccinated countries…. @IndependentSage experts are still warning about a surge with the #DeltaVariant
10) why? Because the latest UK expert report says the #DeltaVariant leads to ~2.5x more hospitalizations than the #B117 #AlphaVariant. And B117 Alpha itself is more severe than original strain too!!
11) thus how much worse is #DeltaVariant? if Delta has ~2.5x ⬆️ hospitalization risk versus #B117 #AlphaVariant, which is 64% more severe than original earlier strain. Then 1.64*2.5= #Delta could have *4.1x* higher risk of hospitalization vs original! 👀

12) Does anyone honestly think the US or any country is going to do that much better than the UK 🇬🇧 which is also heavily vaccinated? Because this is #DeltaVariant grow speed in the Uk 🇬🇧
13) what’s coming next for the UK 🇬🇧. Let’s not follow Boris Johnson’s footsteps
14) But but but, don’t we have good vaccines? Yes, but vaccination rates are not uniformly high everywhere in the Us. The conservative South has serious issues with low vaccination rates. Very low… see thread 🧵
15) That said, #DeltaVariant #B16172 is potentially tricker yielding a substantial jump down on the virus neutralization ladder according to studies. Because it has a lower starting neutralization, the efficacy drop can be substantial. Hence why 1 dose isn’t enough. Image
16) So what is the vaccine efficacy against #B16172 #DeltaVariant? It’s just 60% for AstraZeneca, while 88% of Pfizer in one non-trial study. However, 1 dose (of both averaged) is just 33%. And many countries are just 1 dose vaccinated.
17) But is that enough against the #DeltaVariant? Well there’s only one country in Europe were Delta is dominant? Hint - it’s the one with the surge in cases, and also rising hospitalizations….
18) And given we know the #DeltaVariant is both more transmissible and severe (see above), the question is - is it more severe also in kids? It’s an open debate, but there are many reports from India 🇮🇳 that the #DeltaVariant might be….
19) And if I have to hear one more person say “But but but kids don’t transmit”… they are dead wrong. Oh and kids also get #LongCovid too.
20) I feel that ignoring the risks in kids has been one of the biggest blunders of many Covid denialist and minimizer scientists (after ignoring airborne). So many scientists ignored the risks in kids. History will remember who they are / were.
21) The #DeltaVariant is now causing an “exponential” rise in hospital admissions in the UK 🇬🇧— despite decent vaccination rates in UK. This means we can’t stop vaccinations until we hit 80% fully vaccinated. Until then we are vulnerable still as a society.
22) Dr Fauci agrees that 1 dose is not enough protection for the #DeltaVariant #B161712.
23) This is now the #DeltaVariant growing crisis in the UK 🇬🇧 and how they missed the creeping up numbers originally. Don’t let this happen in your country. Let UK and India be a lesson to all.
24) politicians often act too late. Scientists often too shy to shout from the roof tops early…. What you get is inaction by politicians & slow vocalization by scientists until too late.

We need to sometimes raise the alarm— because there is a critical need for early action.🙏 Image
25) Today is a good day for the CDC to upgrade #DeltaVariant to VARIANT OF CONCERN status…

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More from @DrEricDing

Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Feb 26
BREAKING—FDA suddenly cancels meeting to update next season’s flu vaccines, with zero explanations. Any delays will jeopardize next year’s vaccine supply chain. Image
2) Folks who follow me know that I’m no bullshitter. I criticized past pandemic response right and left, and have called balls and strikes without bias. And I often say things that doctors & epidemiologists are whispering among themselves but don’t say publicly. (Cough cough) ⬇️
3) While I don’t recommend hoarding… I think stocking up on flu antivirals, which you can obtain prophylactically (preventively) from doctors if you ask nicely why you’re high risk, can be a good idea. I know many doctors, epidemiologists and virologists who do for their family.
Read 6 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Feb 26
Doctors are debunking RFK Jr’s claim that 20 hospitalized measles cases in Texas are there for mainly quarantine. Doctors on the ground say the 20 kids hospitalized are having trouble breathing. Oh and they are all unvaccinated against measles, which RFK Jr neglects to mention. Image
2) RFK Jr told Trump today there’s now 2 measles deaths.
3) RFK Jr is a tear with his FDA today. A dark Darwinian future lies ahead for America.
Read 4 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Feb 26
BREAKING—Reports coming in about potentially *2 measles deaths* in Texas, not just one, according to an HHS briefing to the White House today.
2) Earlier today, one measles death in an unvaccinated child was reported in Texas. Image
3) It seems to be RFK Jr who said it in an official Trump WH cabinet meeting today. Not saying he doesn’t lie, but he is now HHS Secretary
Read 6 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Feb 21
Woke or biology? There are actually more than the basic “male” XY & “female” XX sexes. Why? Because biology also creates people with single X chromosomes, or extra chromosomes like XXX, XXY, XYY, or XXX+, plus many 🧬genes. 👉All I’m asking is— please be kind to others. Thanks🙏 Image
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2) “The most frequent SCAs include Turner syndrome (45,X), Klinefelter syndrome (47,XXY), Trisomy X syndrome (47,XXX), and Double Y syndrome (47,XYY).”

pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10…
3) “The phenotype seen in SCAs is highly variable and may not merely be due to the direct genomic imbalance from altered sex chromosome gene dosage but also due to additive alterations in gene networks and regulatory pathways across the genome as well as individual genetic modifiers.”
Read 5 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Feb 16
I'm shocked a lot of doctors don't know about this newer flu antiviral drug called Baloxavir (XOFLUZA)... that shortens your flu illness by 33%, and reduces your viral load by day 2, versus what a placebo takes 5-6 days to achieve. Baloxavir also seems superior to TAMIFLU (oseltamivir) for smashing your viral load on 2 day, achieving what takes Tamiflu 3-4 days. CDC even lists Baloxavir on their website as one of the top 4 drugs that it tracks whether it works against new flu strains (it works)Image
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2) "Baloxavir was associated with significantly more rapid declines in infectious viral load than placebo or oseltamivir (Figure 3A and 3B)."
nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
3) Adverse events for baloxavir were no different than placebo. in fact theres even hints that it could be lower than Tamiflu.

"Adverse events that were considered to be related to the trial regimen were more common in oseltamivir recipients (8.4%) than in baloxavir recipients (4.4%, P=0.009)"Image
Read 13 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Feb 14
⚠️WORST FLU SEASON ever since 2002-2003 when we began to track flu (red, first graph). Worst hit this year are children ages 0-4 and 5-17. ▶️We also have significantly LOWER flu vaccine uptake this year, one of the lowest flu vaccine coverages (red 3rd graph). Indisputable facts. Image
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2) I don't need to tell you that certain US states have vastly lower vaccination rates than others. See map (lighter green, less flu vaccination coverage), and which have higher (darker green)...

If you want to see details and demographics on which state has the LOWEST flu vaccine coverage rates... the data is here.
cdc.gov/fluvaxview/das…Image
3) It’s not just the flu that is going around… Gaines County, TX, where the epicenter of the measles outbreak is, has one of the lowest measles vaccination rates too.
Read 7 tweets

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