Troubling—the worst variant to date, the #DeltaVariant is now the new fastest growing variant in US. This is the so-called “Indian” variant #B16172 that is ravaging UK 🇬🇧 despite high vaccinations because it has immune evasion properties. Here is why it’s trouble—🧵. #COVID19 Image
2) We are expecting the #DeltaVariant to continue growing in the US, outpacing all other variants just like it has in India 🇮🇳 and UK 🇬🇧, and become dominant in US by end of July, if not earlier.

Here is the prediction track - via @TWenseleers from @GISAID data. Image
3) here was how it overtook everything in the UK 🇬🇧— it will happen soon in the US as well.
4) the #DeltaVariant #B16172 is worrisome because study after study shows it has one of the worst antibody neutralization profiles against the current vaccines. Here it is against the Pfizer vaccine - one of the best vaccines for variants to date. 1st dose very little effect.
5) First dose alone wholly inadequate against #B16172 #DeltaVariant, in contrast to original strain (wild type)
6) Also notice how neutralization is much weaker in the elderly—but #B16172 #DeltaVariant is so bad that the neutralization in young adults (~20s) for Delta is even lower than neutralization in the elderly against the old strain! With Delta, you start like an 60-70 year old! 👀 Image
7) Keep in mind that the #DeltaVariant #B16172 has been observed to also attack kids more than before. Here is Singapore’s warning.
8) this is what #B16172 #DeltaVariant is doing to kids in NW England 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿- many kids under 12 also not eligible for vaccines yet. Image
9) Despite UK being one of the most vaccinated countries…. @IndependentSage experts are still warning about a surge with the #DeltaVariant
10) why? Because the latest UK expert report says the #DeltaVariant leads to ~2.5x more hospitalizations than the #B117 #AlphaVariant. And B117 Alpha itself is more severe than original strain too!!
11) thus how much worse is #DeltaVariant? if Delta has ~2.5x ⬆️ hospitalization risk versus #B117 #AlphaVariant, which is 64% more severe than original earlier strain. Then 1.64*2.5= #Delta could have *4.1x* higher risk of hospitalization vs original! 👀

12) Does anyone honestly think the US or any country is going to do that much better than the UK 🇬🇧 which is also heavily vaccinated? Because this is #DeltaVariant grow speed in the Uk 🇬🇧
13) what’s coming next for the UK 🇬🇧. Let’s not follow Boris Johnson’s footsteps
14) But but but, don’t we have good vaccines? Yes, but vaccination rates are not uniformly high everywhere in the Us. The conservative South has serious issues with low vaccination rates. Very low… see thread 🧵
15) That said, #DeltaVariant #B16172 is potentially tricker yielding a substantial jump down on the virus neutralization ladder according to studies. Because it has a lower starting neutralization, the efficacy drop can be substantial. Hence why 1 dose isn’t enough. Image
16) So what is the vaccine efficacy against #B16172 #DeltaVariant? It’s just 60% for AstraZeneca, while 88% of Pfizer in one non-trial study. However, 1 dose (of both averaged) is just 33%. And many countries are just 1 dose vaccinated.
17) But is that enough against the #DeltaVariant? Well there’s only one country in Europe were Delta is dominant? Hint - it’s the one with the surge in cases, and also rising hospitalizations….
18) And given we know the #DeltaVariant is both more transmissible and severe (see above), the question is - is it more severe also in kids? It’s an open debate, but there are many reports from India 🇮🇳 that the #DeltaVariant might be….
19) And if I have to hear one more person say “But but but kids don’t transmit”… they are dead wrong. Oh and kids also get #LongCovid too.
20) I feel that ignoring the risks in kids has been one of the biggest blunders of many Covid denialist and minimizer scientists (after ignoring airborne). So many scientists ignored the risks in kids. History will remember who they are / were.
21) The #DeltaVariant is now causing an “exponential” rise in hospital admissions in the UK 🇬🇧— despite decent vaccination rates in UK. This means we can’t stop vaccinations until we hit 80% fully vaccinated. Until then we are vulnerable still as a society.
22) Dr Fauci agrees that 1 dose is not enough protection for the #DeltaVariant #B161712.
23) This is now the #DeltaVariant growing crisis in the UK 🇬🇧 and how they missed the creeping up numbers originally. Don’t let this happen in your country. Let UK and India be a lesson to all.
24) politicians often act too late. Scientists often too shy to shout from the roof tops early…. What you get is inaction by politicians & slow vocalization by scientists until too late.

We need to sometimes raise the alarm— because there is a critical need for early action.🙏 Image
25) Today is a good day for the CDC to upgrade #DeltaVariant to VARIANT OF CONCERN status…

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Eric Feigl-Ding

Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @DrEricDing

Jun 28
Mask up… oh wait. #RoeVsWade Image
“Honey… let’s use IVF to try for a baby”… oh wait…
“Don’t worry babe, I’m sure our healthcare system in America is the greatest in the world, and you’ll be well taken care of…” — oh wait.
Read 7 tweets
Jun 27
WHY PUBLIC HEALTH IS SO HARD—Major train derailment happens, 3 killed, dozens wounded—all because a railroad 🛤 crossing had no 🚆 warning 🚥 lights! Before tragedy happens, nobody gives a damn—after people die, it’s obvious PREVENTION investment needed.🤦🏻‍♂️
nytimes.com/2022/06/27/us/… Image
2) we see this crazy shit all the time in public health—some whistleblower warn about impending doom over some major tragedy—nobody listens. And then tragedy strikes. Often there is corporate coverup if it’s not a public event—Eg A CIVIL ACTION movie plot.
3) Similarly, when whistleblowers tried to warn about water poisoning of WV residents living near DuPont chemical factory 🏭—it took years of litigation for resolution—but only after epidemiologists proved it and many died/maimed.

time.com/5737451/dark-w…

Read 7 tweets
Jun 27
The @CDCgov (which I love) is blatantly misleading the public—CDC tells hospitals about aerosol risks of #monkeypox and need for N95 masks. Yet @CDCDirector deliberately downplays aerosols & masks in messages to the lay public. Shameful.

HT @mdc_martinus
stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/11786… Image
2) Sometimes in life you have to call the CDC out and admit that the beloved world renowned public health agency you grew up loving, @CDCgov, is a mere shadow of its former self. @CDCDirector cannot tell lay public one thing & then tell clinicians something else on #monkeypox
4) there has been a clearly concerted effort to downplay and muzzle the airborne risks of #monkeypox. Even if airborne is not the main transmission pathway, it is well recognized in many documents to be such to some degree. The @WHO is even muzzling and scrubbing its documents.
Read 4 tweets
Jun 27
⚠️Very worried about #BA5 causing #COVID19 hospitalization surges everywhere it goes—bad it’s very past-immunity-evasive. Portugal hit 80-90% of its old hospitalization peak recently. UK hospitals strained to the brink now too. Bad trends many in places.🧵

HT @jburnmurdoch Image
2) based on models, #BA5 and it’s close cousin #BA4, also past-immunity evasive, is surging so fast, it will likely be 50% of all #SARSCoV2 strains in the Us this week—and soon displacing all other past strains.

HT @JPWeiland Image
3) Why do we need to look at Portugal? It’s a highly vaccinated country, yet #BA5 has completely overwhelmed it. Vaccines work overall, but if a virus spreads unchecked without OTHER MITIGATIONS, vaccines not enough alone. We need vaccines+ PLUS other mitigations.
Read 10 tweets
Jun 25
Poor mothers. This will only get even worse now. #SCOTUS
2) This is a horrible statement. Worse— it’s not even really true. Minority women have very high maternal mortality rates, yes, and white Caucasian mothers have high maternal mortality rates too.

businessinsider.com/gop-senator-la…
3) So just how bad is maternal mortality in Whites vs Blacks mothers? Non-Hispanic White mothers - 19 per 100,000 births. Black women— over 55!!!

CDC data: cdc.gov/nchs/data/hest…
Read 6 tweets
Jun 24
👀Watching—CDC & Florida Department of Health are investigating "one of the worst outbreaks of meningococcal disease among gay and bisexual men in U.S. history”—26 cases and 7 deaths from meningococcal disease. Among those, 24 cases & 6 deaths were in MSM.
cnn.com/2022/06/22/hea…
2) CDC says the outbreak is "primarily among [MSM], including those living with HIV. Recent data show that about half of the cases are among Hispanic men. This outbreak is mostly affecting people who live in Florida but has also affected some people who have traveled to Florida."
3) Meningococcal disease includes meningitis -- infections of the lining of the brain and spinal cord -- and bloodstream infections. "Meningococcal disease can affect anyone and can be deadly," the CDC said in its statement.
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(