Troubling—the worst variant to date, the #DeltaVariant is now the new fastest growing variant in US. This is the so-called “Indian” variant #B16172 that is ravaging UK 🇬🇧 despite high vaccinations because it has immune evasion properties. Here is why it’s trouble—🧵. #COVID19 Image
2) We are expecting the #DeltaVariant to continue growing in the US, outpacing all other variants just like it has in India 🇮🇳 and UK 🇬🇧, and become dominant in US by end of July, if not earlier.

Here is the prediction track - via @TWenseleers from @GISAID data. Image
3) here was how it overtook everything in the UK 🇬🇧— it will happen soon in the US as well.
4) the #DeltaVariant #B16172 is worrisome because study after study shows it has one of the worst antibody neutralization profiles against the current vaccines. Here it is against the Pfizer vaccine - one of the best vaccines for variants to date. 1st dose very little effect.
5) First dose alone wholly inadequate against #B16172 #DeltaVariant, in contrast to original strain (wild type)
6) Also notice how neutralization is much weaker in the elderly—but #B16172 #DeltaVariant is so bad that the neutralization in young adults (~20s) for Delta is even lower than neutralization in the elderly against the old strain! With Delta, you start like an 60-70 year old! 👀 Image
7) Keep in mind that the #DeltaVariant #B16172 has been observed to also attack kids more than before. Here is Singapore’s warning.
8) this is what #B16172 #DeltaVariant is doing to kids in NW England 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿- many kids under 12 also not eligible for vaccines yet. Image
9) Despite UK being one of the most vaccinated countries…. @IndependentSage experts are still warning about a surge with the #DeltaVariant
10) why? Because the latest UK expert report says the #DeltaVariant leads to ~2.5x more hospitalizations than the #B117 #AlphaVariant. And B117 Alpha itself is more severe than original strain too!!
11) thus how much worse is #DeltaVariant? if Delta has ~2.5x ⬆️ hospitalization risk versus #B117 #AlphaVariant, which is 64% more severe than original earlier strain. Then 1.64*2.5= #Delta could have *4.1x* higher risk of hospitalization vs original! 👀

12) Does anyone honestly think the US or any country is going to do that much better than the UK 🇬🇧 which is also heavily vaccinated? Because this is #DeltaVariant grow speed in the Uk 🇬🇧
13) what’s coming next for the UK 🇬🇧. Let’s not follow Boris Johnson’s footsteps
14) But but but, don’t we have good vaccines? Yes, but vaccination rates are not uniformly high everywhere in the Us. The conservative South has serious issues with low vaccination rates. Very low… see thread 🧵
15) That said, #DeltaVariant #B16172 is potentially tricker yielding a substantial jump down on the virus neutralization ladder according to studies. Because it has a lower starting neutralization, the efficacy drop can be substantial. Hence why 1 dose isn’t enough. Image
16) So what is the vaccine efficacy against #B16172 #DeltaVariant? It’s just 60% for AstraZeneca, while 88% of Pfizer in one non-trial study. However, 1 dose (of both averaged) is just 33%. And many countries are just 1 dose vaccinated.
17) But is that enough against the #DeltaVariant? Well there’s only one country in Europe were Delta is dominant? Hint - it’s the one with the surge in cases, and also rising hospitalizations….
18) And given we know the #DeltaVariant is both more transmissible and severe (see above), the question is - is it more severe also in kids? It’s an open debate, but there are many reports from India 🇮🇳 that the #DeltaVariant might be….
19) And if I have to hear one more person say “But but but kids don’t transmit”… they are dead wrong. Oh and kids also get #LongCovid too.
20) I feel that ignoring the risks in kids has been one of the biggest blunders of many Covid denialist and minimizer scientists (after ignoring airborne). So many scientists ignored the risks in kids. History will remember who they are / were.
21) The #DeltaVariant is now causing an “exponential” rise in hospital admissions in the UK 🇬🇧— despite decent vaccination rates in UK. This means we can’t stop vaccinations until we hit 80% fully vaccinated. Until then we are vulnerable still as a society.
22) Dr Fauci agrees that 1 dose is not enough protection for the #DeltaVariant #B161712.
23) This is now the #DeltaVariant growing crisis in the UK 🇬🇧 and how they missed the creeping up numbers originally. Don’t let this happen in your country. Let UK and India be a lesson to all.
24) politicians often act too late. Scientists often too shy to shout from the roof tops early…. What you get is inaction by politicians & slow vocalization by scientists until too late.

We need to sometimes raise the alarm— because there is a critical need for early action.🙏 Image

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Eric Feigl-Ding

Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @DrEricDing

12 Jun
“Terribly scary” epidemic of blindness and deaths in birds—phenomenon is spreading—increasing reports in DC-metro of sick, blind, injured, dead birds. I’m also seeing reports as far as New York of dead/blind birds—many 🐦species affected. Unknown cause.🧵
birdwatchingdaily.com/news/birdwatch… Image
2) “Eye issues were reported in what otherwise looked like healthy juvenile birds, causing blindness and the birds to land and stay on the ground,” said the Animal Welfare League of Arlington in a statement. awla.org/animal-control…
3) “Animal Control is now seeing additional species of birds affected. Other agencies and localities across the region and state are reporting similar issues.”
Read 27 tweets
12 Jun
📍Nearly 2/3 of Russians say they do not plan to get the Sputnik vaccine. Analysts attribute hesitancy to: widespread distrust of 🇷🇺 authorities, & frequent state television reports that #COVID19 as mostly defeated or not dangerous… And now a new surge.🧵
nytimes.com/2021/06/12/wor… Image
2) “Russian officials scrambled on Saturday to slow the spread of a new wave of the coronavirus, ordering workers in Moscow to take next week off and pleading with the populace to make use of widely available vaccines.
3) “The biggest spike appeared to be in Moscow, the Russian capital, which reported 6,701 new cases on Saturday — more than double the rise five days ago, and the highest single-day total since December. “
Read 6 tweets
12 Jun
Nobody could have predicted this: 2 passengers on Celebrity Millennium cruise ship 🛳 test positive for #COVID19. cnn.com/travel/article…
2) The ship set sail Saturday "with fully vaccinated crew and guests and following comprehensive protocols that align with our destination partners and exceed CDC guidelines to protect the health and safety of our guests," the release said.
3) So-called "breakthrough" coronavirus cases, in which people get infected after vaccination, are expected. Such cases result in milder Covid-19 illness than in unvaccinated people, a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention study published this week shows.
Read 5 tweets
12 Jun
Bitcoin + #COVID19 + Florida = obvious 2021 headline waiting to happen.

Thousands flocked to Miami last week for Bitcoin 2021–the largest-ever cryptocurrency conference. Now, days later, some conference attendees say they’ve tested positive for COVID. 🤦🏻‍♂️
miamiherald.com/news/coronavir…
2) Larry Cermak, research director at the Block, a cryptocurrency news and information website, tweeted that he has not fallen ill but that “everyone” he was with while in Miami did.
3) Eric Wall, chief investment officer at investment firm Arcane Assets, said he tested positive for COVID-19 after attending the conference and that he was “not vaccinated,” before making his account private, Vice reported.
Read 7 tweets
11 Jun
JUST IN—FDA decided that ~60 million doses of the Johnson & Johnson #COVID19 vaccine produced at Emergent (Baltimore factory) must be discarded because of possible contamination. But 10 million doses can be used with a disclosure warning. 🧵
nytimes.com/2021/06/11/us/…
2) FDA cannot guarantee that Emergent BioSciences, the company that operates the plant, followed good manufacturing practices. The agency has not yet decided whether Emergent can reopen the factory, which has been closed for two months because of regulatory concerns
3) For weeks the F.D.A. has been trying to figure out what to do about at least 170 million doses of vaccine that were left in limbo after the discovery of a major production mishap involving two vaccines manufactured at the site.
Read 8 tweets
11 Jun
Vaccinations not required? Two #COVID19 cases on a Mediterranean cruise ship. CDC is also not requiring cruise 🛳 to sail with vaccinated passengers. Some cruises will, but Florida prohibits vaccine requirements & will fine cruise companies for asking 🔥
washingtonpost.com/travel/2021/06…
2) The first cruise from U.S. with paying passengers scheduled to sail in June. Celebrity Cruises ship will require everyone age >=16 to be fully vaccinated—which conflicts with a Florida law that says businesses can’t ask for proof of vaccination status. washingtonpost.com/travel/2021/05…
3) MSC Cruises recently got approval from the CDC to conduct a test cruise on that vessel. The company said it will “welcome both vaccinated and non-vaccinated guests,” with those who are not vaccinated subject to additional testing and restrictions. mscpressarea.com/en_US/press-re…
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(