Every sell-off ends when a catalyst emerges... easy to find catalysts for things like $ETH (EIP-1559), $DOT (parachain launch) but what will be the likely catalyst for $BTC?

Here are 2 possibilities:
1) People constantly confuse "institutional buyers" w/ "fast money traders"

Ruffer, Blackrock, Minerd, etc - traders. They entered (unemotionally) when $BTC was cheap & underlevered ahead of catalysts (4Q20) & exited when expensive, overlevered, & lost its catalysts (2Q21)
But these traders made a lot of money, & will return (with others) when $BTC gets cheap again... when
- leverage is flushed (✅)
- fear gets too high (✅)
- fiscal/monetary stimulus continues unabated

Nowhere else to go with rates heading back to 0% & the USD going down.
2) When people stop looking at daily/weekly prices and take a step back.

For instance, $BTC is now just a 7% drop away from being negative YTD. That's a pretty crazy, and completely counter-intuitive result given what is happening around the world. That will wake people up.
I'm personally way more bullish on $ETH, #DeFi, Web 3.0, sports/gaming/fan tokens & other sectors of digital assets that accrue economic value via revenues & cash flows than I am about "digital money", but I'm also objective.

Objectively, $BTC positive catalysts are not far away

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More from @jdorman81

6 Jun
This tweet followed a 40 min call Joe had w/ @DavidNage & me

We had a rational discussion; same as we have daily w/ smart, successful investors who deploy millions into our funds.

Joe is not dumber than them; he’s just committed to a successful antagonistic anti-crypto schtick
I said tokens turn customers into owners & incentivizes USAGE of a protocol & product, not that it incentivizes buyers of a token. Thus, not a get rich quick MLM. It is a way to attract & retain customers. MLMs favor the rich sellers; pass thru tokens favor the everyday customers
If a restaurant gave out free food for a month, it would attract customers, but be a failed biz model unless the food & service was so good that they came back after it was no longer free.

Tokens create step 1; step 2 is up to the project, & many are now succeeding at retention
Read 5 tweets
23 May
Lots of people asking for my opinion right now... here's a quick and dirty thread 👇
First, think about what caused the rally since October 2020:

1) Low rates / low dollar

-- still very much in tact even though there are taper talks and inflationary data, rates and the dollar still have not reacted, which is still very bullish for risk assets
2) Inst money coming into the market

-- Inst money doesn't come faster or slower based on price moves. Those trying to deploy will still deploy, and they are. Though $GBTC & $COIN may have been leading indicators, as downward px moves show inst money was already slowing
Read 15 tweets
14 May
We believe $SUSHI is now the most undervalued token in digital assets.

A thread on valuation, upcoming catalysts, and why the recent downward price action will be short-lived Down pointing backhand index 👇
2/ $SUSHI has underperformed both $UNI and the broader DEX market since the beginning of the year.

This is most apparent with the 50% peak-to-trough decline in March and April (still down ~30% from ATH’s)
3/ Why? 3 Overhangs:

1) rolling 6-mo vesting unlock from initial Sushi yield farming
2) PancakeSwap growth
3) Uniswap V3 hype

Let's break each of these down -- none of which have any actual impact on $SUSHI valuation and its core business.
Read 23 tweets
15 Apr
A thread on thought process for special investing in digital assets .... courtesy of $LEO
Step 1: Identify a new catalyst (news, a merger, something unnatural...)

Step 2: Analysis

The stolen funds probably not getting dumped that easily, how else could they monetize?

Read 8 tweets
30 Mar
Nexus Mutual ($WNXM) is the most undervalued token in digital assets & it's not even close. Trades at just a $23mm net market cap despite being one of the most utilized #DeFi projects.

A thread on valuation and upcoming catalysts 👇

(h/t @arca head of research @KatieTalati )
First, why does Nexus Mutual exist?

Digital asset builders are trying to build the car while simultaneously driving it. Fine in theory, but in reality, not laying key pieces of infrastructure early on can stymie growth & innovation.

For #DeFi, insurance is infrastructure
Insurance is a sleepy, boring business, but insurance in the case of #DeFi is also crucial to an ecosystem that is still being built yet already holds a massive amount of assets and is still growing (current DeFi TVL: $43 Billion).
Read 23 tweets
14 Jan
Anyone want to buy $BTC at a 47% discount to current prices? Here's how you can do it.

I can't believe I'm saying this, but $EOS might actually be the best risk/reward in digital assets right now due to their massive #Bitcoin holdings.

Thread time 👇
First, let's talk risk/reward. Over the past 2 years, $EOS is the only well-known token other than $XRP that is not higher. In fact, it has underperformed by a LOT.

Even other zombie projects are up 300-1000%

That's a nice start for an investment -- low downside, relatively
Next, the math:

Block One owns 140,000 $BTC. At $2.77, the market cap of $EOS is $2.6 bn, which is only 47% of the value of their BTC holdings.

That means by buying $EOS, you are actually buying $BTC at $18,771. Huge discount.

The question is "can you unlock this value"?
Read 14 tweets

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