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Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
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8 Jun, 12 tweets, 3 min read
Let's look back at the SPI-M consensus statement from before Step 3 of the Roadmap.

A short thread.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
Here's a thread discussing the model projection.

Since then, PHE have gathered more data on the Delta variant.

And here is the latest data on cases.
Hospitalizations follow cases.

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More from @Dr_D_Robertson

Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
9 Jun
Here are some charts showing what is going on with Covid cases and hospitalizations in England.

A thread.

Firstly, cases. In order that the graph doesn't get too spiky, we smooth it by taking the average cases in the previous 7 days. Here it is.
We're only really interested in what's happening now (and in the future), so let's look at the right hand bit. Cases are rising exponentially.
To show this, we can plot the case numbers on a logarithmic plot. If there's an exponential rise, this line should be straight.
Read 11 tweets
Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
6 Jun
We are now here.
The source from this chart is Figure 2 of the SPI-M-O consensus statement of 12 May, a few days before we moved to Step 3 of the Roadmap.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
The figure comes from the Warwick/JUNIPER Road Map scenarios

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
Read 11 tweets
Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
3 Jun
Cumulative case numbers for variants published by PHE today, 3 June.

I think we all get the picture now that the Delta/B.1.617.2/'India' variant is becoming dominant.

Here are the charts.

And a final tweet linking to today's risk assessment of Delta, which isn't great news.
Logarithmic cumulative chart.
Heatmaps of weekly cases
Read 7 tweets
Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
3 Jun
The PHE risk assessment of Delta/B.1.617.2/'India' has been updated today, 3 June.

- *new* INFECTION SEVERITY risk assessed as RED (with Iow confidence)
- VACCINES risk still assessed as RED but now with HIGH confidence.

Previous versions linked below.

A thread.
TRANSMISSIBILITY BETWEEN HUMANS
RED risk
HIGH confidence

"Transmissibility appears greater than wild type (first wave) SARS-CoV-2Delta continues to demonstrate a substantially increased growth rate compared to Alpha, across multiple analyses. ...
"... Delta cases are rising whilst Alpha cases are declining. Secondary attack rates, including household secondary attack rates, are higher for Delta, but these are not yet corrected for vaccination status. There is in vitro evidence suggestive of increased replication in ...
Read 19 tweets
Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
3 Jun
What is the 'Nepal Variant'?

This is the Transport Secretary's statement just now, justifying why Portugal has moved from the green list of countries.

"a sort of Nepal mutation of the so-called Indian variant which has been detected"
This was featured prominently in today's Daily Mail.
The World Health Organization apparently do not know about it.

Read 7 tweets
Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
3 Jun
The green/amber/red list and the role of the Joint Biosecurity Centre in those risk analyses.

Reminiscent of the JBC work on the CONTAIN framework for deciding which local authorities should be in which tiers.

A short thread.
The JBC is responsible for publishing a risk assessment that is used to determine which countries are on the green, amber, and red lists.

gov.uk/government/spe…
We can *assume* that these risk assessments have been conducted and have informed the reported move of Portugal from the green list to the amber list.

Here is how we are told they are completed

gov.uk/government/pub…
Read 10 tweets

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