NEW:
Just spoke to French fin minister Bruno Le Maire at G7 in London.

We are “just 1mm away from an historic agreement” - says countries such as Ireland need to get “on board”.

Remaining sticking point - min tax rate, 15% “only a starting point” excl on @BBCNews channel soon
Le Maire: rate is “most tricky difficulty, and I think that if the negotiation is still underway, that's because we are still working on these really tricky points of the rate”..

“clearly 15% is only a starting point. And if it can be higher, it is better to have a higher level”
“we are spending a lot of public money to protect our economies against the consequences of COVID, and to have a quick and v strong economic recovery, but we need money, & we need new resources, I would think that these new resources are the right ones and useful for all of us.”
New minimum & digital tax should raise “significant sums” not just for US, Le Maire tells me. Asked how he will sell 15% plus min corp tax to his colleague the Irish finance minister:

“even Ireland.. must understand they have to give the agreement to these major breakthrough”...
“I can understand the difficulty of Ireland & some other European countries, but when there’s such international impetus, this is in the interest of all 27 EU member states to say, yes, we are on board, and we are supporting this new international tax system” Le Maire tells me
NEW

Sticking points at G7, sources tell me are

- whether there is a specific reference to a specific minimum global corp tax rate at all, or to 15% or to “at least 15%” to show ambition

- Some nations resisting US demands to immediately drop their digital services taxes
German finance minister Olaf Scholz very excited about tax deal, US engagement, telling me re: what the finance ministers are going to agree tomorrow: “we will have an agreement which will really change the world, ..this will be a turning point in global cooperation” #BBCNewsTen

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More from @faisalislam

5 Jun
Deal Done - historic agreement on multinational tax agreed at G7 finance meeting in London… quite a moment.
Just spoke to Irish finance minister Pascal Donohoe here at G7 - I asked him if this was the end of Ireland’s years old business model said Ireland will continue to be competitive in the change that is coming” and he will continue to make case for legitimate tax competition
NEW US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen in the conclusion of this tax deal…
Says US will be first to return to pre pandemic output, and whole G7 have “fiscal space” to speed up recoveries and the conversation should be more “what more can we do now”…
Read 9 tweets
28 May
NEW:

Billions of pounds of British exports to the EU faced tariffs in first three months of UK-EU tariff free trade deal, according to a Trade Policy Observatory analysis, seen by the BBC, of the official EU27 data from actual customs declarations now required on UK-EU trade /1
FULL Story: This is an early study of “preference utilisation” using official data, and reflects a number of stories we have heard of companies simply paying the tariff if they are unable or it is too onerous to claim eligibility for the tariff-free deal bbc.co.uk/news/business-…
The TPO analysis concludes that £2.5 to £3.5 billion of British exports have faced tariffs so far, but the data for March is not yet complete. European sources said their internal data put it at €2.5bn -for reference GB-EU exports were £34bn (down from avg £44b Q1 18-20) /3
Read 7 tweets
24 May
On inflation Bailey says the rise to below target 1.5% has been base effects, but there are hotspots for prices, reflecting global commodity prices, an unbalanced post covid recovery focussed on goods...

This is a “hump” that should come down, he say.
Bank of England’s Andy Haldane on inflation:
“There’s a whole list of [prices] going up at real pace.
It’s hard to find very much, goods or assets that aren’t going up right now. With the dishonourable exception of #Bitcoin”.
“The economy is recovering, but from a low base...
this is good news... It is getting back to normal. I wouldn’t call it a boom” BoE external member Michael Saunders
Read 5 tweets
23 May
This was the first on record reference to “herd immunity”, unprompted, by a Sage adviser, in an interview with the BBC, on March 11th 2020. Interesting context for @dominic2306 claims, denied by Govt, that the late push to lockdown last year reflected actual strategy:
two different things here:

Was herd immunity “policy”? - easy to disprove, because it is a scientific description of a state.

Did “herd immunity” thinking influence a 2-3 wk delay in actual lockdown that cost tens thousand lives, & resulted in worse econ outcomes? That= real q
To be clear, the motivation as I understand it for some of those pushing a herd immunity approach was that the public would get bored of a premature lockdown, undermining its effectiveness, and that in any second wave having let virus spread in first, there would be immunity…
Read 8 tweets
19 May
🇦🇺 🇬🇧
On the Australia trade deal rumpus...

Worth noting that its importance to Govt is especially elevated because the US deal really doesn’t seem to be a priority for Biden admin. See last wk response from USTR to Senator Portman: “v critical areas open, still quite a road”
Also the question specifically asked if USTR would ask to extend trade authority to finish UK deal - Tai did not say that, said objectives still being reviewed and “we are keeping our eye on” Northern Ireland after concerns from Congress, in relation to trade deal...
..no mention in bilateral readouts of conversations of trade ministers and PM-President, Queens Speech mentioned three areas to deepen trade ties, but not US..

prevention of last year’s moves to a quick trade deal under Trump could have put matters back years, beyond midterms...
Read 10 tweets
17 May
Elon Musk turned up at GigaFactory Berlin - which will start producing Teslas by year end… his plane stopped off in UK over the weekend… as it did last June… meeting anyone interesting @elonmusk ?

Industry insiders report considerable Govt effort going into wooing him to UK…
The question would be how to persuade him that he can’t just freely serve UK market tariff free from Berlin factory… get into quite complex rules of origin calculations on electric cars, which were the subject of very last minute phase in negotiations between PM and VDL.
many years ago U.K. certainly an option,
when he announced Berlin in 2019 he was asked by a British journalist why not UK… he referenced Brexit - though that was while immediate tariffs/ no deal were still a possibility - does the deal remove the risk he identified then?
Read 5 tweets

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